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WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|

NHL Shots on Goal

PROP / UNVALIDATED

← All NHL systems

192 projections192 with a posted line15 model + marketMAE 1.105 vs 1.167 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results

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Market prices

PREVIEW. NHL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Last updated 9.2h ago. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.

No prices beating the market

No NHL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.

Open the +EV terminal

Methodology

DISTRIBUTION

Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.

Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin (alpha 0.06 - 0.10)

WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT

Exponentially weighted game-log average
Usage-adjusted rate (time on ice)
Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped

LIVE BOARD ACCURACY

SAMPLE

2024 and 2025 seasons in the game-log master

PLAYER-GAMES

33,874

MAE (ENGINE VS L5)

1.105 vs 1.167

MAE CHANGE

-5.3% (se 0.2%)

empirical_ewm mean, no opponent factor; as-of history (strictly earlier games); baseline = trailing-5 mean. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.

RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION

SAMPLE

Jan 2026 holdout; 7,007 props with 3+ books vs the market

MAE (MODEL VS BASELINE)

1.010 vs 1.030

CRPS (MODEL VS BASELINE)

BRIER

0.2470

ECE

BLEND c (t)

+0.30 (+4.9)

Result. NO_EDGE vs market (consensus Brier 0.2443)

Against prices. NO_EDGE on 63 days of real lines: the model's log loss was 0.6872 vs 0.6816 for the market consensus, and bets on model disagreement lost -3.6% at the best price.

Record. No graded history is published for NHL projections: they are not logged to the public ledger, so there is no win rate or ROI to show.

Source: NHL shots-on-goal validation, 2026-10-14. MAE and CRPS: lower is better. The live board does not run the research model.

Skater shots on goal from time on ice and recent shot rate. A trained research model exists for this stat and found no edge against prices.