NHL Player Points
PROP / UNVALIDATED86 projections0 with a posted line0 model + marketnot tracked in the public results
Today
SIDE
SIGNAL
86 rowsUNVALIDATEDLines have not posted yet: projections only
| SCORE | PLAYER & MATCHUP | MARKET & LINE | MODEL PROJ | CONSENSUS FAIR | L5 / L10 HIT % | BEST BOOK & PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -- |  David PastrnakBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.16-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Artemi PanarinLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.71-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Pavel ZachaBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.69-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Charlie McAvoyBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.66-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Adrian KempeLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.66-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Alex LaferriereLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.64-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Quinton ByfieldLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.51-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Hampus LindholmBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.45-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Will BorgenBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.34-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Anze KopitarLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.31-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Nikita ZadorovBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.30-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Drew DoughtyLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.17-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Tage ThompsonBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.12-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Nick SuzukiMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.11-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Rasmus DahlinBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.10-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Lane HutsonMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.04-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jack QuinnBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.92-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Zach BensonBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.80-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Owen PowerBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.74-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mattias SamuelssonBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.73-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Alexandre CarrierMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.33-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Kaiden GuhleMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.31-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Noah DobsonMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.23-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mike MathesonMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.23-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Sebastian AhoCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.19-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Kyle ConnorWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.17-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mark ScheifeleWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.17-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Seth JarvisCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.63-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Neal PionkWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.59-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Josh MorrisseyWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.56-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Sean WalkerCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.54-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  K'Andre MillerCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.37-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jalen ChatfieldCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.32-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jaccob SlavinCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.28-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Dylan DeMeloWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.20-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Dylan SambergWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.17-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mikko RantanenDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.16-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jason RobertsonDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.13-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Wyatt JohnstonDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.04-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Miro HeiskanenDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.98-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Connor BedardCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.83-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Patrick KaneCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.74-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Thomas HarleyDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.34-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Bowen ByramCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.30-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Wyatt KaiserCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.29-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Artyom LevshunovCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.26-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Esa LindellDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.20-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Alex VlasicCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.20-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Connor McDavidEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.83-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Leon DraisaitlEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.54-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Evan BouchardEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.52-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Clayton KellerUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.32-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Nick SchmaltzUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.13-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mikhail SergachevUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.02-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  MacKenzie WeegarUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.46-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  John MarinoUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.45-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Ryan SheaEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.38-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mattias EkholmEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.31-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Connor MurphyEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.25-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Nate SchmidtUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.14-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jack HughesNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.33-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Alex TuchWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.73-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Connor BrownNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.66-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Dougie HamiltonNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.59-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jakob ChychrunWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.55-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Luke HughesNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.46-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Rasmus SandinWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.44-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jonas SiegenthalerNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.28-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Martin FehérváryWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.26-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Brett PesceNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.22-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Matt RoyWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.16-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Vincent DesharnaisWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.13-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  William NylanderTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.30-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Auston MatthewsTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 1.20-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Kirill MarchenkoTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.95-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Mathew BarzalNYI v TOR · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.90-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Bo HorvatNYI v TOR · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.88-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Matthew SchaeferNYI v TOR · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.83-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Darren RaddyshTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.53-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Morgan RiellyTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Points (no line yet) | 0.33-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Model proj is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Consensus fair is the de-vigged market probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. L5 / L10 count the recent games that landed on the listed side of the line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows without a line are rotation projections: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NHL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Last updated 7.6h ago. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
No prices beating the market
No NHL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.
Open the +EV terminalMethodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. None trained for this stat.
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (time on ice)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
LIVE BOARD ACCURACY
SAMPLE
2024 and 2025 seasons in the game-log master
PLAYER-GAMES
33,874
MAE (ENGINE VS L5)
0.585 vs 0.602
MAE CHANGE
-2.9% (se 0.2%)
empirical_ewm mean, no opponent factor; as-of history (strictly earlier games); baseline = trailing-5 mean. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
--
Goals plus assists per game from recent rate and ice time.