NHL Shots on Goal
PROP / UNVALIDATED84 projections0 with a posted line0 model + marketnot tracked in the public results
Today
SIDE
SIGNAL
84 rowsUNVALIDATEDLines have not posted yet: projections only
| SCORE | PLAYER & MATCHUP | MARKET & LINE | MODEL PROJ | CONSENSUS FAIR | L5 / L10 HIT % | BEST BOOK & PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -- |  David PastrnakBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 3.4-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Quinton ByfieldLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 3.2-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Alex LaferriereLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.98-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Adrian KempeLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.86-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Artemi PanarinLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.60-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Charlie McAvoyBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.78-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Anze KopitarLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.64-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Pavel ZachaBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.52-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Nikita ZadorovBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.29-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Hampus LindholmBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.10-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Drew DoughtyLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.99-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Will BorgenBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.50-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Tage ThompsonBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 3.7-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Rasmus DahlinBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.95-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Nick SuzukiMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.50-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jack QuinnBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.33-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Zach BensonBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.89-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Noah DobsonMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.84-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Lane HutsonMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.72-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mike MathesonMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.43-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mattias SamuelssonBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.35-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Owen PowerBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.82-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Alexandre CarrierMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.79-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Kaiden GuhleMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.74-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Kyle ConnorWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 3.7-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Sebastian AhoCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.76-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Seth JarvisCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.65-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Josh MorrisseyWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.04-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mark ScheifeleWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.59-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Neal PionkWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.54-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jalen ChatfieldCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.45-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  K'Andre MillerCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.42-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jaccob SlavinCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.39-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Sean WalkerCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.31-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Dylan SambergWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.15-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Dylan DeMeloWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.68-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jason RobertsonDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 3.8-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Connor BedardCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.84-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Wyatt JohnstonDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.65-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Thomas HarleyDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.22-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Miro HeiskanenDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.14-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mikko RantanenDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.04-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Patrick KaneCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.85-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Bowen ByramCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.34-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Artyom LevshunovCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.26-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Esa LindellDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.93-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Alex VlasicCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.79-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Wyatt KaiserCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.79-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Connor McDavidEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.81-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Leon DraisaitlEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.79-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Clayton KellerUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.69-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Nick SchmaltzUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.68-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Evan BouchardEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.36-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mikhail SergachevUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.91-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  MacKenzie WeegarUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.47-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Nate SchmidtUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.22-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Mattias EkholmEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.94-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Connor MurphyEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.85-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Ryan SheaEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.70-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  John MarinoUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.63-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jack HughesNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 4.2-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Alex TuchWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 3.1-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Dougie HamiltonNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.71-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Luke HughesNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.70-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jakob ChychrunWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.40-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Connor BrownNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.87-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Rasmus SandinWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.19-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Brett PesceNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.12-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Matt RoyWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.76-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jonas SiegenthalerNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.48-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Vincent DesharnaisWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.48-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Martin FehérváryWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 0.43-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Matthew SchaeferNYI v TOR · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 4.1-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Bo HorvatNYI v TOR · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 3.7-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Auston MatthewsTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 3.4-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  William NylanderTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 3.1-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Darren RaddyshTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.88-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Mathew BarzalNYI v TOR · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.85-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Kirill MarchenkoTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 2.48-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Adam PelechNYI v TOR · 6:00 PM CT | Shots on Goal (no line yet) | 1.71-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Model proj is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Consensus fair is the de-vigged market probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. L5 / L10 count the recent games that landed on the listed side of the line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows without a line are rotation projections: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NHL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Last updated 7.7h ago. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
No prices beating the market
No NHL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.
Open the +EV terminalMethodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin (alpha 0.06 - 0.10)
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (time on ice)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
LIVE BOARD ACCURACY
SAMPLE
2024 and 2025 seasons in the game-log master
PLAYER-GAMES
33,874
MAE (ENGINE VS L5)
1.105 vs 1.167
MAE CHANGE
-5.3% (se 0.2%)
empirical_ewm mean, no opponent factor; as-of history (strictly earlier games); baseline = trailing-5 mean. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
Jan 2026 holdout; 7,007 props with 3+ books vs the market
Skater shots on goal from time on ice and recent shot rate. A trained research model exists for this stat and found no edge against prices.