NHL Goalie Saves
PROP / UNVALIDATED34 projections0 with a posted line0 model + marketnot tracked in the public results
Today
SIDE
SIGNAL
34 rowsUNVALIDATEDLines have not posted yet: projections only
| SCORE | PLAYER & MATCHUP | MARKET & LINE | MODEL PROJ | CONSENSUS FAIR | L5 / L10 HIT % | BEST BOOK & PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -- |  Jeremy SwaymanBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 26.6-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Joonas KorpisaloBOS v LAK · 8:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 23.7-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Anton ForsbergLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 22.9-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Darcy KuemperLAK v BOS · 8:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 20.0-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jakub DobesMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 26.0-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Samuel MontembeaultMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 22.7-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Colten EllisBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 22.6-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Ukko-Pekka LuukkonenBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 20.8-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jacob FowlerMTL v BUF · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 20.4-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Alex LyonBUF v MTL · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 19.1-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Stuart SkinnerWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 23.7-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Eric ComrieWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 22.4-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Connor HellebuyckWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 22.4-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Clay StevensonWPG v CAR · 2:30 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 21.8-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Brandon BussiCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 20.2-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Frederik AndersenCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 19.2-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Pyotr KochetkovCAR v WPG · 2:30 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 18.6-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Spencer KnightCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 25.5-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Arvid SoderblomCHI v DAL · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 24.4-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Casey DeSmithDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 21.1-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jake OettingerDAL v CHI · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 21.0-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Devon LeviEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 25.5-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Connor IngramEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 24.1-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Karel VejmelkaUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 21.8-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Tristan JarryEDM v UTA · 9:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 20.7-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | Vitek VanecekUTA v EDM · 9:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 19.0-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Charlie LindgrenWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 26.8-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Logan ThompsonWSH v NJD · 12:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 26.6-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jake AllenNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 24.7-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Nico DawsNJD v WSH · 12:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 22.8-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Sergei BobrovskyTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 24.2-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Ilya SorokinNYI v TOR · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 23.7-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Anthony StolarzTOR v NYI · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 23.6-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- | David RittichNYI v TOR · 6:00 PM CT | Saves (no line yet) | 18.7-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Model proj is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Consensus fair is the de-vigged market probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. L5 / L10 count the recent games that landed on the listed side of the line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows without a line are rotation projections: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NHL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Last updated 7.7h ago. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
No prices beating the market
No NHL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.
Open the +EV terminalMethodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + Normal. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. None trained for this stat.
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (shots faced)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
LIVE BOARD ACCURACY
SAMPLE
2024 and 2025 seasons in the game-log master
PLAYER-GAMES
2,588
MAE (ENGINE VS L5)
6.056 vs 6.388
MAE CHANGE
-5.2% (se 0.6%)
empirical_ewm mean, no opponent factor; as-of history (strictly earlier games); baseline = trailing-5 mean. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
--
Goalie saves from recent shots faced and save rate. Not posted until goalies are confirmed, so lines often arrive late in the day.