Models
Active systems, pipeline markets, and the validation rules behind the card.
Models use walk-forward validation: trained on prior seasons and validated on the next season so the model never sees future data.
A pick has to clear model probability, implied probability, edge threshold, and Kelly-positive checks before it reaches the card.
Systems stay in paper mode until they clear the 200-bet gate. Results are tracked transparently before paid access opens.
Predicts whether the first inning will be scoreless using starter quality, umpire zone, park, and weather context.
Prices batter HR probability with barrel rate, launch angle, pitcher HR risk, park factor, and platoon split.
Models first-five moneyline outcomes from starter SIERA, recent form, opponent wOBA, umpire, and weather.
Projects starter strikeout totals with swinging strikes, zone/chase rates, opponent K%, and recent K workload.
Projects starter outs recorded from pitch efficiency, innings trends, bullpen context, and opponent OBP.
Moneyline and totals layer that extends F5 context into full-game pricing.
Early-game starter window for openers, short leashes, and lineup-top exposure.
Hybrid innings window for stronger starter splits before bullpen noise dominates.
Late starter and bridge-relief pricing before full bullpen exposure.
Batter strikeout props using pitcher shape, zone, chase, and batter whiff profile.
Batter total-base props with contact quality, matchup, lineup slot, and park.
Hit props using contact rate, expected average, platoon split, and park/run context.
Earned-runs props using starter quality, opponent run creation, weather, and leash.