Latest results

WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|

NHL Player Points

PROP / UNVALIDATED

← All NHL systems

209 projections209 with a posted line6 model + marketMAE 0.585 vs 0.602 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results

Lines updated 18 min ago

SCORE	PLAYER	GAME	MARKET & LINE	MODEL	MARKET FAIR	FORM	BEST PRICE	EDGE / EV
52LEAN	Nikita KucherovTBL	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Points	1.2664%	49% +103 4 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	Caesars-103	+14.8%-2.9%
52LEAN	John CarlsonTBL	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Points	0.6353%	40% +152 5 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ESPN BET+140	+13.6%-4.6%
44WATCH	Zeev BuiumVAN	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Points	0.1884%	72% -256 2 bk	L5 80% · L10 90%	Hard Rock-325	+11.8%-6.0%
42WATCH	Gage GoncalvesTBL	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Points	0.3571%	60% -147 2 bk	L5 100% · L10 70%	ESPN BET-170	+11.2%-5.4%
42WATCH	Brock BoeserVAN	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Over 0.5 Points	0.7050%	41% +142 5 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	ESPN BET+130	+8.8%-4.8%
37WATCH	Anthony CirelliTBL	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Points	0.5558%	49% +102 2 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	ESPN BET-110	+8.6%-5.5%
33WATCH	Brandon HagelTBL	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Points	1.4342%	34% +197 4 bk	L5 40% · L10 30%	ESPN BET+180	+7.9%-5.7%
32WATCH	Elias PetterssonVAN	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Points	0.5160%	54% -120 1 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Hard Rock-140	+5.9%-6.6%
32WATCH	Jake DeBruskVAN	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Over 0.5 Points	0.6146%	40% +148 5 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	ESPN BET+140	+5.1%-3.1%
25WATCH	Marco RossiVAN	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Over 0.5 Points	0.4838%	34% +194 5 bk	L5 0% · L10 20%	ESPN BET+190	+3.9%-1.5%
19WATCH	Jake GuentzelTBL	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Over 0.5 Points	1.1969%	67% -201 4 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	ProphetX-240	+2.5%-5.3%
12WATCH	Jonathan LekkerimakiVAN	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Points	0.3769%	68% -209 2 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	ESPN BET-260	+1.8%-6.3%
3WATCH	Filip HronekVAN	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Over 0.5 Points	0.5744%	43% +132 5 bk	L5 20% · L10 40%	ESPN BET+120	+0.4%-5.2%
--	Brayden PointTBL	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Points	0.5558%	39% +156 5 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Caesars+145	+18.7%-4.2%
--	J.J. MoserTBL	VAN@TBL3:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Points	0.2380%	61% -157 2 bk	L5 100% · L10 100%	ESPN BET-180	+18.5%-4.9%

Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.

DISTRIBUTION

Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.

Research model. None trained for this stat.

WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT

Exponentially weighted game-log average
Usage-adjusted rate (time on ice)
Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped

LIVE BOARD ACCURACY

SAMPLE

2024 and 2025 seasons in the game-log master

PLAYER-GAMES

33,874

MAE (ENGINE VS L5)

0.585 vs 0.602

MAE CHANGE

-2.9% (se 0.2%)

empirical_ewm mean, no opponent factor; as-of history (strictly earlier games); baseline = trailing-5 mean. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.

RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION

SAMPLE

MAE (MODEL VS BASELINE)

CRPS (MODEL VS BASELINE)

BRIER

ECE

BLEND c (t)

Result. No trained model; unvalidated

Against prices. No study has compared this stat with prices.

Record. No graded history is published for NHL projections: they are not logged to the public ledger, so there is no win rate or ROI to show.

Source: NHL shots-on-goal validation, 2026-10-14. MAE and CRPS: lower is better. The live board does not run the research model.

NHL Player Points

Market prices

Methodology