| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40WATCH | Under 3.5 Carries | 2.9267% | 58% -138 4 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | DraftKings-147 | +8.9%-2.6% | ||
| 40WATCH | Over 3.5 Carries | 3.756% | 49% +104 6 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | Caesars-109 | +6.8%-6.1% | ||
| -- | Over 5.5 Carries | 7.270% | 38% +165 1 bk | L5 80% · L10 90% | Fanatics+140 | +32.4%-9.4% | ||
| -- | Under 16.5 Carries | 12.278% | 51% -104 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | BetMGM-110 | +27.1%-2.7% | ||
| -- | Under 14.5 Carries | 10.778% | 52% -108 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | Caesars-118 | +26.1%-3.9% | ||
| -- | Carries (no line yet) | 8.4 | -- | L10 avg 8.7 · szn 10.4 | -- | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Carries from recent workload. Snap share and teammate absences are not modeled on the live board.