NFL Receiving Yards
PROP / UNVALIDATED10 projections0 with a posted line0 model + marketnot tracked in the public results
Today
SIDE
SIGNAL
10 rowsUNVALIDATEDLines have not posted yet: projections only
| SCORE | PLAYER & MATCHUP | MARKET & LINE | MODEL PROJ | CONSENSUS FAIR | L5 / L10 HIT % | BEST BOOK & PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -- |  Nico CollinsHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 71.8-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Parker WashingtonJAC v HOU · 8:30 AM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 67.0-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Brenton StrangeJAC v HOU · 8:30 AM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 43.1-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Dalton SchultzHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 42.9-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jakobi MeyersJAC v HOU · 8:30 AM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 41.9-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Xavier HutchinsonHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 36.3-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jayden HigginsHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 36.3-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Kayshon BoutteHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 33.3-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Christian KirkHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 32.9-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Brian Thomas Jr.JAC v HOU · 8:30 AM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 32.6-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Model proj is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Consensus fair is the de-vigged market probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. L5 / L10 count the recent games that landed on the listed side of the line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows without a line are rotation projections: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
| Player / prop | Game | Side | Book | Price | Fair | Books | EV | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Hutchinson 14.5 Rec Yds | HOU@JAC | UNDER | Novig | +108 | 50.0% | 5 | +4.0% | FLAGGED |
Methodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + Normal. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. XGBoost (Tweedie) + Hurdle-Gamma / Normal, chosen by out-of-sample log score
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (targets)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
LIVE BOARD ACCURACY
SAMPLE
2021-2025 regular seasons
PLAYER-GAMES
8,539
MAE (ENGINE VS L5)
25.9 vs 27.1
MAE CHANGE
-4.4% (se 0.4%)
Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
Walk-forward 2021-2025
Receiving yards from target volume, yards per target and the opponent's pass defense.