NFL Receptions
PROP / UNVALIDATED10 projections0 with a posted line0 model + marketnot tracked in the public results
Today
SIDE
SIGNAL
10 rowsUNVALIDATEDLines have not posted yet: projections only
| SCORE | PLAYER & MATCHUP | MARKET & LINE | MODEL PROJ | CONSENSUS FAIR | L5 / L10 HIT % | BEST BOOK & PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -- |  Nico CollinsHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 5.2-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Parker WashingtonJAC v HOU · 8:30 AM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 4.4-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Dalton SchultzHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 4.3-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Brenton StrangeJAC v HOU · 8:30 AM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 4.3-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jakobi MeyersJAC v HOU · 8:30 AM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 3.4-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Christian KirkHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 3.1-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jayden HigginsHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 3.1-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Xavier HutchinsonHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 2.98-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Kayshon BoutteHOU v JAC · 8:30 AM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 2.34-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| -- |  Brian Thomas Jr.JAC v HOU · 8:30 AM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 2.10-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Model proj is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Consensus fair is the de-vigged market probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. L5 / L10 count the recent games that landed on the listed side of the line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows without a line are rotation projections: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
| Player / prop | Game | Side | Book | Price | Fair | Books | EV | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bijan Robinson 3.5 Receptions | CHI@ATL | UNDER | Novig | +113 | 50.0% | 9 | +6.5% | FLAGGED |
 Jahan Dotson 1.5 Receptions | CHI@ATL | UNDER | bet365 | +150 | 42.1% | 7 | +5.4% | FLAGGED |
 Blake Corum 1.5 Receptions | ARI@LAR | OVER | DraftKings | +167 | 39.4% | 7 | +5.3% | FLAGGED |
 Rashod Bateman 1.5 Receptions | BAL@CLE | UNDER | bet365 | +150 | 41.9% | 6 | +4.8% | FLAGGED |
 Hunter Henry 3.5 Receptions | NYJ@NE | OVER | Novig | +153 | 41.2% | 9 | +4.2% | FLAGGED |
 Zay Flowers 5.5 Receptions | BAL@CLE | OVER | bet365 | +122 | 46.9% | 6 | +4.0% | FLAGGED |
 Cade Otton 3.5 Receptions | PIT@TB | UNDER | Parx | -121 | 56.9% | 7 | +3.9% | FLAGGED |
 Omarion Hampton 1.5 Receptions | LAC@KC | OVER | BetMGM | +180 | 37.0% | 5 | +3.7% | FLAGGED |
 Chris Olave 6.5 Receptions | NO@NYG | OVER | Novig | +133 | 44.5% | 9 | +3.6% | FLAGGED |
 Omar Cooper Jr. 1.5 Receptions | NYJ@NE | OVER | Novig | -122 | 56.9% | 4 | +3.6% | FLAGGED |
 Malachi Fields 1.5 Receptions | NO@NYG | OVER | Novig | -144 | 61.0% | 6 | +3.3% | FLAGGED |
| Brian Thomas Jr. 1.5 Receptions | HOU@JAC | UNDER | Novig | +113 | 48.4% | 7 | +3.1% | FLAGGED |
 Rico Dowdle 1.5 Receptions | PIT@TB | UNDER | Parx | -107 | 53.3% | 7 | +3.1% | FLAGGED |
Methodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (targets)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
LIVE BOARD ACCURACY
SAMPLE
2021-2025 regular seasons
PLAYER-GAMES
8,539
MAE (ENGINE VS L5)
1.820 vs 1.887
MAE CHANGE
-3.6% (se 0.3%)
Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
Walk-forward 2021-2025
Catches from target volume and catch rate.