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WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|

NFL Anytime Touchdown

PROP / UNVALIDATED

← NFL systems

0 projections0 with a posted line0 model + marketnot tracked in the public results

Today

NFL projections

No anytime touchdown projections right now: no NFL game is on the slate, or its lines have not posted.

Market prices

PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.

No prices beating the market

No NFL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.

Open the +EV terminal

Methodology

DISTRIBUTION

Live board. Empirical EWM + Poisson (at least one). The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.

Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin

WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT

Exponentially weighted game-log average
Usage-adjusted rate (carries + targets)
Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped

LIVE BOARD ACCURACY

SAMPLE

2021-2025 regular seasons

PLAYER-GAMES

11,109

MAE (ENGINE VS L5)

0.486 vs 0.492

MAE CHANGE

-1.2% (se 0.4%)

Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.

RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION

SAMPLE

Walk-forward 2021-2025

MAE (MODEL VS BASELINE)

CRPS (MODEL VS BASELINE)

BRIER

ECE

BLEND c (t)

Result. Beats trailing-mean baselines

Against prices. No edge shown. On the banked weeks (main line, 3+ books) the model-minus-market Brier gap was -0.005 +/- 0.013 (n=83), indistinguishable from zero.

Record. No graded history is published for NFL projections: they are not logged to the public ledger, so there is no win rate or ROI to show.

Source: Walk-forward and banked-market study, 2026-10-14 (NFL prop systems handoff). MAE and CRPS: lower is better. The live board does not run the research model.

Probability of at least one rushing or receiving touchdown. Return and defensive touchdowns are not counted; the books' own scope is unverified.