KEY FEATURES (RESEARCH MODEL)
- Trailing L3 / L5 / season and EWM averages
- Closing-line game environment (spread and total)
- Opponent-allowed rates
- Red-zone usage from play-by-play
- Injury report status
- Missing-teammate usage redistribution (experimental, off by default)
Against prices. No edge shown. On the banked weeks (main line, 3+ books) the model-minus-market Brier gap was -0.005 +/- 0.013 (n=83), indistinguishable from zero.
What the daily board runs. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Source: Walk-forward and banked-market study, 2026-10-14 (NFL prop systems handoff). Baselines are the best trailing-average forecaster in each study.