Latest results

WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|

NFL Rushing Attempts

PROP / UNVALIDATED

← All NFL systems

52 projections40 with a posted line1 model + marketnot tracked in the public results

Lines updated 14 min ago

SCORE	PLAYER	GAME	MARKET & LINE	MODEL	MARKET FAIR	FORM	BEST PRICE	EDGE / EV
27WATCH	Kyren WilliamsLAR	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Over 14.5 Carries	14.751%	48% +108 5 bk	L5 60% · L10 40%	Fanatics+105	+3.3%-1.7%
--	Tyler AllgeierARI	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Under 13.5 Carries	7.098%	53% -112 4 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	DraftKings-123	+45.2%-4.2%
--	Blake CorumLAR	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Under 9.5 Carries	8.066%	50% +101 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	BetMGM+100	+15.9%-0.6%
--	Jeremiyah LoveARI	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Carries (no line yet)	13.5	--	L10 avg 13.4 · szn 13.4	--	--

Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.

Market prices

PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.

No prices beating the market

No NFL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.

Open the +EV terminal

Methodology

DISTRIBUTION

Live board. Empirical EWM + Normal. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.

Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin (opt-in stat)

WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT

Exponentially weighted game-log average
Usage-adjusted rate (carries)
Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped

RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION

SAMPLE

MAE (MODEL VS BASELINE)

CRPS (MODEL VS BASELINE)

BRIER

ECE

BLEND c (t)

Result. Added 2026-10-14; not yet validated

Against prices. No edge shown. On the banked weeks (main line, 3+ books) the model-minus-market Brier gap was -0.005 +/- 0.013 (n=83), indistinguishable from zero.

Carries from recent workload. Snap share and teammate absences are not modeled on the live board.