NFL Receptions
PROP / UNVALIDATED152 projections146 with a posted line28 model + marketMAE 1.820 vs 1.887 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results
Lines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69LEAN |  Gunnar Helm TEN | TEN@ INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 1.8272% | 58% -136 12 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | Novig-150 | +14.5%-3.8% |
| 66LEAN |  Jonathan TaylorIND | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 2.2761% | 48% +108 13 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | BetMGM+105 | +12.8%-1.7% |
| 56LEAN |  Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 4.5 Receptions | 5.155% | 45% +121 10 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ProphetX+119 | +10.0%-0.8% |
| 56LEAN |  Tony PollardTEN | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.5654% | 46% +120 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Parx+117 | +8.9%-1.2% |
| 54LEAN |  Calvin RidleyTEN | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.6548% | 40% +153 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig+150 | +8.6%-1.2% |
| 53LEAN |  Carnell TateTEN | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 4.357% | 51% -104 13 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | FanDuel-108 | +6.3%-2.0% |
| 51LEAN |  Elic AyomanorTEN | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.6648% | 45% +123 11 bk | L5 20% · L10 40% | ProphetX+132 | +3.6%+4.0%MODEL + MARKET |
| 36WATCH |  Keenan AllenIND | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 4.062% | 58% -141 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | ProphetX-148 | +3.9%-2.0% |
| 27WATCH |  Tyler WarrenIND | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 5.5 Receptions | 5.160% | 57% -131 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | Pinnacle-131 | +2.9%-0.0% |
| -- |  Laquon TreadwellIND | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 1.5280% | 60% -150 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | Pinnacle-161 | +20.0%-2.9% |
| -- |  Josh DownsIND | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 3.473% | 54% -116 13 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig-120 | +19.3%-1.5% |
| -- |  Tyjae SpearsTEN | TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.464% | 45% +121 4 bk | L5 20% · L10 30% | ProphetX+114 | +18.9%-3.1% |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
No prices beating the market
No NFL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.
Open the +EV terminalMethodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (targets)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
LIVE BOARD ACCURACY
SAMPLE
2021-2025 regular seasons
PLAYER-GAMES
8,539
MAE (ENGINE VS L5)
1.820 vs 1.887
MAE CHANGE
-3.6% (se 0.3%)
Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
Walk-forward 2021-2025
Catches from target volume and catch rate.