NFL Receptions

PROP / UNVALIDATED

152 projections146 with a posted line29 model + marketMAE 1.820 vs 1.887 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results

Lines updated 5 min ago

SCORE	PLAYER	GAME	MARKET & LINE	MODEL	MARKET FAIR	FORM	BEST PRICE	EDGE / EV
69LEAN	Gunnar HelmTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	1.8272%	58% -136 12 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	Novig-150	+14.5%-3.8%
66LEAN	Jonathan TaylorIND	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	2.2761%	48% +108 13 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	bet365+105	+12.8%-1.7%
65LEAN	Kalif RaymondCHI	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 2.5 Receptions	3.566%	54% -116 12 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	bet365-120	+12.3%-1.6%
64LEAN	Pat FreiermuthPIT	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.163%	50% -100 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig+100	+12.9%0.0%
64LEAN	Keaton MitchellLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	1.9270%	58% -136 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	Pinnacle-136	+12.2%-0.1%
63LEAN	Dalton SchultzHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	4.359%	47% +114 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	ProphetX+108	+12.6%-2.7%
61LEAN	Nico CollinsHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 5.5 Receptions	5.259%	46% +115 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	bet365+115	+12.9%-0.1%
60LEAN	Harold Fannin Jr.CLE	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	3.571%	59% -143 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Pinnacle-154	+12.1%-3.0%
59LEAN	Rashod BatemanBAL	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.5470%	58% -138 10 bk	L5 80% · L10 50%	Novig-144	+11.7%-1.6%
59LEAN	Derrick HenryBAL	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.1668%	58% -135 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	DraftKings-145	+10.4%-2.8%
58LEAN	Bijan RobinsonATL	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.457%	50% +102 13 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Novig+111	+7.3%+4.6%MODEL + MARKET
58LEAN	Hunter HenryNE	NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	2.8568%	59% -144 12 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	FanDuel-154	+8.9%-2.8%
56LEAN	Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 4.5 Receptions	5.155%	45% +121 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ProphetX+119	+10.0%-0.8%
56LEAN	Tony PollardTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.5654%	46% +120 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Parx+117	+8.9%-1.2%
56LEAN	Brian Thomas Jr.JAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.1060%	52% -108 12 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	Pinnacle-120	+8.2%-4.6%
55LEAN	Noah FantNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.8554%	46% +120 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 30%	ProphetX+115	+8.4%-2.1%
55LEAN	Parker WashingtonJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.456%	49% +105 13 bk	L5 40% · L10 30%	Novig+104	+7.4%-0.5%
54LEAN	Calvin RidleyTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.6548%	40% +153 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Novig+150	+8.6%-1.2%
54LEAN	Devaughn VeleNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.063%	56% -129 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Parx-136	+6.9%-2.2%
54LEAN	Colston LovelandCHI	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	3.954%	47% +114 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig+113	+6.8%-0.4%
53LEAN	Quentin JohnstonLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	2.4457%	47% +114 9 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Parx+125	+10.0%+5.0%MODEL + MARKET
53LEAN	Carnell TateTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.357%	51% -104 13 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	FanDuel-108	+6.3%-2.0%
52LEAN	Denzel BostonCLE	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.163%	50% -100 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Parx+107	+13.4%+3.5%MODEL + MARKET
52LEAN	Rico DowdlePIT	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.0258%	47% +114 11 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	Novig+122	+11.6%+3.6%MODEL + MARKET
52LEAN	Noah GrayKC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.4658%	50% +101 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Novig+100	+8.1%-0.6%
52LEAN	Christian McCaffreySF	WAS@SFMON 7:15 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.358%	49% +104 9 bk	L5 80% · L10 50%	ProphetX+101	+9.4%-1.5%
51LEAN	Elic AyomanorTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.6648%	45% +123 11 bk	L5 20% · L10 40%	ProphetX+132	+3.6%+4.0%MODEL + MARKET
51LEAN	Jake FergusonDAL	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.064%	55% -120 8 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	DraftKings-126	+9.8%-2.1%
51LEAN	Chris Godwin Jr.TB	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	3.850%	42% +135 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig+133	+8.0%-1.0%
49LEAN	Darnell MooneyNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.7449%	46% +120 12 bk	L5 20% · L10 20%	bet365+125	+3.6%+2.4%MODEL + MARKET
49LEAN	DK MetcalfPIT	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.555%	42% +136 5 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	ProphetX+132	+12.2%-1.8%
49LEAN	Bucky IrvingTB	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.3766%	60% -148 10 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	Novig-156	+6.7%-1.9%
49LEAN	Michael WilsonARI	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Under 5.5 Receptions	5.259%	54% -116 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	Novig-122	+5.5%-2.2%
48LEAN	Chris RodriguezJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 0.5 Receptions	0.3372%	58% -138 1 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	bet365-160	+14.0%-5.7%
48LEAN	Jalen CokerCAR	CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.652%	45% +122 9 bk	L5 20% · L10 60%	bet365+120	+7.2%-1.0%
48LEAN	Cam SkatteboNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.2464%	57% -134 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ProphetX-138	+6.4%-1.4%
47LEAN	Kenny GainwellTB	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 2.5 Receptions	3.158%	45% +120 7 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	Novig+130	+12.7%+4.5%MODEL + MARKET
47LEAN	Puka NacuaLAR	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Over 7.5 Receptions	8.355%	53% -112 12 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	Novig-108	+2.1%+2.0%MODEL + MARKET
47LEAN	Christian WatsonGB	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.455%	45% +122 6 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig+117	+10.3%-2.0%
47LEAN	Isaiah LikelyNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 5.5 Receptions	5.160%	55% -120 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	Novig-122	+5.7%-0.7%
47LEAN	Emeka EgbukaTB	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.751%	46% +118 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig+115	+4.7%-1.3%
46LEAN	Blake CorumLAR	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.2166%	62% -162 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	bet365-165	+4.3%-0.7%
45LEAN	Omarion HamptonLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.7551%	37% +173 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	BetMGM+180	+14.4%+2.5%MODEL + MARKET
45LEAN	Juwan JohnsonNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 4.5 Receptions	4.545%	43% +130 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 30%	Novig+135	+2.0%+2.0%MODEL + MARKET
45LEAN	Brycen TremayneCAR	CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.1469%	56% -127 1 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	bet365-145	+12.6%-5.4%
45LEAN	Oronde GadsdenLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.0359%	46% +116 2 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	bet365+110	+12.3%-2.9%
45LEAN	Michael MayerLV	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	3.648%	40% +148 8 bk	L5 40% · L10 30%	Novig+144	+7.3%-1.5%
45LEAN	Cole KmetCHI	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.4642%	36% +176 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	bet365+170	+6.0%-2.2%
43WATCH	Zay FlowersBAL	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 5.5 Receptions	5.749%	47% +115 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	bet365+122	+2.0%+3.5%MODEL + MARKET
43WATCH	Dontayvion WicksPHI	CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 2.5 Receptions	3.056%	50% -100 8 bk	L5 60% · L10 40%	ProphetX-103	+6.0%-1.5%
43WATCH	Javonte WilliamsDAL	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	2.5854%	48% +110 8 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	FanDuel+106	+6.0%-2.1%
43WATCH	Tucker KraftGB	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.161%	55% -121 8 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Novig-122	+6.0%-0.2%
43WATCH	Brenton StrangeJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	4.359%	55% -124 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	DraftKings-129	+3.7%-1.6%
43WATCH	Tre TuckerLV	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.653%	49% +102 12 bk	L5 20% · L10 40%	bet365+100	+3.6%-1.0%
42WATCH	Roschon JohnsonCHI	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 0.5 Receptions	1.3071%	61% -154 1 bk	L5 40% · L10 22%	bet365-180	+10.8%-5.6%
42WATCH	Davis AllenLAR	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Over 0.5 Receptions	1.2169%	64% -181 9 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	Novig-182	+4.5%-0.2%
41WATCH	KaVontae TurpinDAL	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Over 0.5 Receptions	1.0564%	57% -131 6 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ProphetX-136	+7.3%-1.7%
41WATCH	Ty JohnsonBUF	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.3566%	61% -157 8 bk	L5 100% · L10 90%	Novig-167	+5.0%-2.4%
41WATCH	Nate BoerkircherJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 0.5 Receptions	1.0965%	61% -157 9 bk	L5 75% · L10 75%	ProphetX-164	+4.0%-1.8%
41WATCH	Malik NabersNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 5.5 Receptions	5.850%	47% +113 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 56%	BetMGM+110	+3.4%-1.5%
40WATCH	Rome OdunzeCHI	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	3.646%	40% +151 7 bk	L5 20% · L10 10%	ESPN BET+145	+6.6%-2.4%
38WATCH	Kendre MillerNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Receptions	0.7747%	37% +170 1 bk	L5 60% · L10 40%	bet365+155	+9.9%-5.6%
38WATCH	Tommy TrembleCAR	CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.3065%	56% -127 1 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	bet365-145	+8.8%-5.4%
38WATCH	Khalil ShakirBUF	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	4.359%	50% -100 1 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	bet365-115	+8.8%-6.5%
38WATCH	Darren WallerCAR	CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	2.8148%	43% +132 7 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Hard Rock+125	+5.2%-3.0%
38WATCH	Tyler HigbeeLAR	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Over 2.5 Receptions	3.463%	58% -140 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	ProphetX-142	+4.4%-0.7%
37WATCH	Cade OttonTB	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	3.647%	44% +127 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	bet365+120	+3.4%-3.2%
36WATCH	Ladd McConkeyLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	2.8867%	53% -112 9 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Novig-108	+14.4%+1.7%MODEL + MARKET
36WATCH	Kendrick BourneARI	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	2.7270%	57% -132 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	ProphetX-127	+13.7%+1.6%MODEL + MARKET
36WATCH	Chris OlaveNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 6.5 Receptions	6.546%	44% +126 12 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	Novig+133	+1.6%+3.0%MODEL + MARKET
36WATCH	Keenan AllenIND	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.062%	58% -141 7 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	ProphetX-148	+3.9%-2.0%
35WATCH	Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 2.5 Receptions	3.362%	57% -132 8 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig-127	+4.8%+1.8%MODEL + MARKET
34WATCH	Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.0058%	55% -122 11 bk	L5 20% · L10 50%	ProphetX-124	+3.0%-0.8%
33WATCH	Jaylin NoelHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.2664%	57% -135 1 bk	L5 80% · L10 50%	bet365-155	+6.6%-5.5%
32WATCH	James Cook IIIBUF	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.3163%	55% -124 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	bet365-120	+7.3%+1.5%MODEL + MARKET
32WATCH	Colby ParkinsonLAR	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.7350%	49% +104 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	Novig+108	+1.4%+2.0%MODEL + MARKET
31WATCH	Isaiah DavisNYJ	NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Receptions	0.7847%	40% +148 1 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	bet365+135	+6.5%-5.2%
31WATCH	DeVonta SmithPHI	CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 4.5 Receptions	5.561%	55% -124 1 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Parx-143	+5.3%-6.1%
29WATCH	Trey McBrideARI	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Over 7.5 Receptions	7.647%	44% +125 12 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	Novig+122	+2.5%-1.3%
28WATCH	Malachi FieldsNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	2.0042%	39% +153 10 bk	L5 0% · L10 0%	bet365+150	+2.8%-1.3%

Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.

Market prices

PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.

Player / prop	Game	Side	Book	Price	Fair	Books	EV	Status
Bijan Robinson 3.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET	CHI@ATL	UNDER	Novig	+113	50.0%	9	+6.5%	FLAGGED
Jahan Dotson 1.5 Receptions	CHI@ATL	UNDER	bet365	+150	42.1%	7	+5.4%	FLAGGED
Blake Corum 1.5 Receptions	ARI@LAR	OVER	DraftKings	+167	39.4%	7	+5.3%	FLAGGED
Rashod Bateman 1.5 Receptions	BAL@CLE	UNDER	bet365	+150	41.9%	6	+4.8%	FLAGGED
Hunter Henry 3.5 Receptions	NYJ@NE	OVER	Novig	+153	41.2%	9	+4.2%	FLAGGED
Zay Flowers 5.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET	BAL@CLE	OVER	bet365	+122	46.9%	6	+4.0%	FLAGGED
Cade Otton 3.5 Receptions	PIT@TB	UNDER	Parx	-121	56.9%	7	+3.9%	FLAGGED
Omarion Hampton 1.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET	LAC@KC	OVER	BetMGM	+180	37.0%	5	+3.7%	FLAGGED
Chris Olave 6.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET	NO@NYG	OVER	Novig	+133	44.5%	9	+3.6%	FLAGGED
Omar Cooper Jr. 1.5 Receptions	NYJ@NE	OVER	Novig	-122	56.9%	4	+3.6%	FLAGGED
Malachi Fields 1.5 Receptions	NO@NYG	OVER	Novig	-144	61.0%	6	+3.3%	FLAGGED
Brian Thomas Jr. 1.5 Receptions	HOU@JAC	UNDER	Novig	+113	48.4%	7	+3.1%	FLAGGED
Rico Dowdle 1.5 Receptions	PIT@TB	UNDER	Parx	-107	53.3%	7	+3.1%	FLAGGED

Methodology

DISTRIBUTION

Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.

Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin

WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT

Exponentially weighted game-log average
Usage-adjusted rate (targets)
Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped

LIVE BOARD ACCURACY

SAMPLE

2021-2025 regular seasons

PLAYER-GAMES

8,539

MAE (ENGINE VS L5)

1.820 vs 1.887

MAE CHANGE

-3.6% (se 0.3%)

Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.

RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION

SAMPLE

Walk-forward 2021-2025

Catches from target volume and catch rate.