NFL Receptions
PROP / UNVALIDATED152 projections146 with a posted line28 model + marketMAE 1.820 vs 1.887 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results
Lines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64LEAN |  Pat Freiermuth PIT | PIT@ TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.163% | 50% -100 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig+100 | +12.9%0.0% |
| 60LEAN |  Darnell WashingtonPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 2.1763% | 52% -109 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Pinnacle-110 | +11.1%-0.4% |
| 52LEAN |  Rico DowdlePIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.0258% | 47% +114 11 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | Novig+122 | +11.6%+3.6%MODEL + MARKET |
| 51LEAN |  Chris Godwin Jr.TB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.850% | 42% +135 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig+133 | +8.0%-1.0% |
| 49LEAN |  DK MetcalfPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.555% | 42% +136 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | ProphetX+132 | +12.2%-1.8% |
| 49LEAN |  Bucky IrvingTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.3766% | 60% -148 10 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | Novig-156 | +6.7%-1.9% |
| 47LEAN |  Emeka EgbukaTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.751% | 46% +118 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig+115 | +4.7%-1.3% |
| 42WATCH |  Kenny GainwellTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.158% | 45% +120 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | Novig+127 | +12.7%+3.2%MODEL + MARKET |
| 37WATCH |  Cade OttonTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.647% | 44% +127 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | bet365+120 | +3.4%-3.2% |
| 32WATCH |  Jaylen WarrenPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.163% | 49% +105 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig+108 | +14.6%+1.4%MODEL + MARKET |
| -- |  Germie BernardPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 3.376% | 58% -135 7 bk | L5 75% · L10 75% | Novig-138 | +18.1%-0.8% |
| -- |  Ted Hurst IIITB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.8353% | 36% +177 10 bk | L5 75% · L10 75% | Parx+170 | +17.2%-2.4% |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.