Latest results

WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|

NFL Receptions

PROP / UNVALIDATED

← All NFL systems

152 projections146 with a posted line28 model + marketMAE 1.820 vs 1.887 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results

Lines updated 14 min ago

SCORE	PLAYER	GAME	MARKET & LINE	MODEL	MARKET FAIR	FORM	BEST PRICE	EDGE / EV
62LEAN	Keaton MitchellLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	1.9270%	58% -135 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	Pinnacle-136	+12.3%-0.2%
53LEAN	Quentin JohnstonLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	2.4457%	47% +114 9 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Parx+125	+10.0%+5.0%MODEL + MARKET
52LEAN	Noah GrayKC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.4658%	50% +101 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Novig+100	+8.1%-0.6%
45LEAN	Omarion HamptonLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.7551%	37% +173 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	BetMGM+180	+14.4%+2.5%MODEL + MARKET
45LEAN	Oronde GadsdenLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.0359%	46% +116 2 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	bet365+110	+12.3%-2.9%
36WATCH	Ladd McConkeyLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	2.8867%	53% -112 9 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Novig-108	+14.4%+1.7%MODEL + MARKET
31WATCH	Emmett JohnsonKC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.0173%	63% -172 9 bk	L5 50% · L10 50%	bet365-165	+10.1%+1.5%MODEL + MARKET
--	Jalen RoyalsKC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	0.6896%	60% -149 10 bk	L5 100% · L10 100%	DraftKings-161	+36.7%-3.1%
--	Xavier WorthyKC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	2.7085%	52% -107 11 bk	L5 80% · L10 90%	Parx-104	+33.2%+1.3%
--	Charlie KolarLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	1.3185%	57% -134 9 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	Parx-136	+27.7%-0.7%
--	Kenneth Walker IIIKC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	2.2780%	59% -144 10 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	ProphetX-146	+20.7%-0.6%
--	Travis KelceKC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	3.473%	52% -108 11 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	Novig-106	+20.6%+1.1%
--	Kimani VidalLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.0970%	53% -113 9 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	Novig-117	+17.3%-1.6%

Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.

Market prices

PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.

Player / prop	Game	Side	Book	Price	Fair	Books	EV	Status
Keaton Mitchell 2.5 Receptions	LAC@KC	OVER	bet365	+150	43.3%	7	+8.2%	FLAGGED
Omarion Hampton 1.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET	LAC@KC	OVER	BetMGM	+180	37.0%	5	+3.7%	FLAGGED

Methodology

DISTRIBUTION

Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.

Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin

WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT

Exponentially weighted game-log average
Usage-adjusted rate (targets)
Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped

LIVE BOARD ACCURACY

SAMPLE

2021-2025 regular seasons

PLAYER-GAMES

8,539

MAE (ENGINE VS L5)

1.820 vs 1.887

MAE CHANGE

-3.6% (se 0.3%)

Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.

RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION

SAMPLE

Walk-forward 2021-2025

Catches from target volume and catch rate.