Latest results

WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases+1.45u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Hits-1.00u|WEVShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits+0.63u|LEVEnrique Hernández Over 0.5 Total Bases-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Over 11.5 Outs Recorded+0.94u|LEVGriffin Jax Under 11.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVGriffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts+1.17u|LEVGavin Williams Under 6.5 Strikeouts-1.00u|WEVLiam Hicks Under 0.5 Hits+1.30u|LEVGavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded-1.00u|WEVCooper Pratt Under 0.5 Total Bases+1.16u|LEVBrayan Rocchio Under 0.5 Hits-1.00u|

NFL Receptions

PROP / UNVALIDATED

← All NFL systems

152 projections146 with a posted line28 model + marketMAE 1.820 vs 1.887 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results

Lines updated 14 min ago

SCORE	PLAYER	GAME	MARKET & LINE	MODEL	MARKET FAIR	FORM	BEST PRICE	EDGE / EV
51LEAN	Jake FergusonDAL	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.064%	55% -120 8 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	DraftKings-126	+9.8%-2.1%
47LEAN	Christian WatsonGB	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.455%	45% +122 6 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig+117	+10.3%-2.0%
43WATCH	Javonte WilliamsDAL	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	2.5854%	48% +110 8 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	FanDuel+106	+6.0%-2.1%
43WATCH	Tucker KraftGB	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.161%	55% -121 8 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Novig-122	+6.0%-0.2%
41WATCH	KaVontae TurpinDAL	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Over 0.5 Receptions	1.0564%	57% -131 6 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ProphetX-136	+7.3%-1.7%
14WATCH	CeeDee LambDAL	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Over 6.5 Receptions	6.748%	47% +114 8 bk	L5 60% · L10 30%	Hard Rock+110	+1.5%-1.7%
12WATCH	George PickensDAL	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Over 5.5 Receptions	5.343%	41% +143 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 40%	Novig+135	+1.5%-3.3%
5WATCH	Ryan FlournoyDAL	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.162%	59% -145 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Novig-144	+3.3%+0.3%MODEL + MARKET
1WATCH	MarShawn LloydGB	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.0960%	60% -149 6 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Novig-156	+0.2%-1.8%
--	Bo MeltonGB	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	0.7483%	50% -100 9 bk	L5 80% · L10 90%	DraftKings-102	+32.7%-1.0%
--	Matthew GoldenGB	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	3.671%	44% +128 6 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	Novig+127	+26.6%-0.3%

Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.

DISTRIBUTION

Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.

Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin

WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT

Exponentially weighted game-log average
Usage-adjusted rate (targets)
Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped

LIVE BOARD ACCURACY

SAMPLE

2021-2025 regular seasons

PLAYER-GAMES

8,539

MAE (ENGINE VS L5)

1.820 vs 1.887

MAE CHANGE

-3.6% (se 0.3%)

Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.

RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION

SAMPLE

Walk-forward 2021-2025

MAE (MODEL VS BASELINE)

CRPS (MODEL VS BASELINE)

BRIER

ECE

BLEND c (t)

+0.10 (+1.1)

Result. Beats trailing-mean baselines

Against prices. No edge shown. On the banked weeks (main line, 3+ books) the model-minus-market Brier gap was -0.005 +/- 0.013 (n=83), indistinguishable from zero.

Record. No graded history is published for NFL projections: they are not logged to the public ledger, so there is no win rate or ROI to show.

Source: Walk-forward and banked-market study, 2026-10-14 (NFL prop systems handoff). MAE and CRPS: lower is better. The live board does not run the research model.

NFL Receptions

Market prices

Methodology