NFL Receptions
PROP / UNVALIDATED152 projections146 with a posted line28 model + marketMAE 1.820 vs 1.887 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results
Lines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63LEAN |  Kalif Raymond CHI | CHI@ ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.566% | 53% -115 11 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | bet365-120 | +12.5%-2.0% |
| 60LEAN |  Bijan RobinsonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.457% | 50% +101 12 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig+111 | +7.1%+5.1%MODEL + MARKET |
| 53LEAN |  Colston LovelandCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.954% | 47% +113 13 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig+113 | +6.6%-0.0% |
| 45LEAN |  Cole KmetCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.4642% | 36% +176 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | bet365+170 | +6.0%-2.2% |
| 42WATCH |  Roschon JohnsonCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 0.5 Receptions | 1.3071% | 61% -154 1 bk | L5 40% · L10 22% | bet365-180 | +10.8%-5.6% |
| 40WATCH |  Rome OdunzeCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.646% | 40% +151 7 bk | L5 20% · L10 10% | ESPN BET+145 | +6.6%-2.4% |
| 35WATCH | Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.362% | 57% -132 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig-127 | +4.8%+1.8%MODEL + MARKET |
| 13WATCH |  D'Andre SwiftCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 2.5754% | 53% -111 12 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | Novig-113 | +1.1%-0.9% |
| 11WATCH |  Luther Burden IIICHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 4.5 Receptions | 4.444% | 43% +134 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Caesars+126 | +1.1%-3.3% |
| -- |  Jahan DotsonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.3262% | 42% +137 9 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | bet365+150 | +20.3%+5.3% |
| -- |  Drake LondonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 6.5 Receptions | 5.174% | 56% -126 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | bet365-135 | +17.8%-2.9% |
| -- |  Zachariah BranchATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.3960% | 60% -150 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | BetMGM-165 | +0.0%-3.8% |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.