NFL Receptions
PROP / UNVALIDATED152 projections146 with a posted line28 model + marketMAE 1.820 vs 1.887 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results
Lines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48LEAN |  Jalen Coker CAR | CAR@ PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 4.652% | 45% +122 9 bk | L5 20% · L10 60% | bet365+120 | +7.2%-1.0% |
| 45LEAN |  Brycen TremayneCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.1469% | 56% -127 1 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | bet365-145 | +12.6%-5.4% |
| 43WATCH |  Dontayvion WicksPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.056% | 50% -100 8 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | ProphetX-103 | +6.0%-1.5% |
| 38WATCH |  Tommy TrembleCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.3065% | 56% -127 1 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | bet365-145 | +8.8%-5.4% |
| 38WATCH |  Darren WallerCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 2.8148% | 43% +132 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Hard Rock+125 | +5.2%-3.0% |
| 31WATCH |  DeVonta SmithPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 4.5 Receptions | 5.561% | 55% -124 1 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Parx-143 | +5.3%-6.1% |
| 11WATCH |  Tetairoa McMillanCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 5.5 Receptions | 5.444% | 42% +135 8 bk | L5 20% · L10 20% | Pinnacle+135 | +1.2%-0.2% |
| 3WATCH |  Dallas GoedertPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.848% | 48% +108 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig+111 | +0.1%+1.5%MODEL + MARKET |
| -- |  Dameon PiercePHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 0.5190% | 40% +149 8 bk | L5 80% · L10 83% | BetMGM+145 | +50.2%-1.7% |
| -- |  Makai LemonPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 3.280% | 60% -149 5 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | bet365-165 | +20.6%-4.0% |
| -- |  Chuba HubbardCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 2.0666% | 50% +102 13 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ProphetX+101 | +16.5%-0.4% |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
No prices beating the market
No NFL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.
Open the +EV terminalMethodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (targets)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
LIVE BOARD ACCURACY
SAMPLE
2021-2025 regular seasons
PLAYER-GAMES
8,539
MAE (ENGINE VS L5)
1.820 vs 1.887
MAE CHANGE
-3.6% (se 0.3%)
Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
Walk-forward 2021-2025
Catches from target volume and catch rate.