NFL Receptions
PROP / UNVALIDATED152 projections146 with a posted line28 model + marketMAE 1.820 vs 1.887 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results
Lines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60LEAN |  Harold Fannin Jr. CLE |  BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 3.571% | 59% -143 10 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Pinnacle-154 | +12.1%-3.0% |
| 59LEAN |  Rashod BatemanBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.5470% | 58% -138 10 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | Novig-144 | +11.7%-1.6% |
| 59LEAN |  Derrick HenryBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.1668% | 58% -135 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | DraftKings-145 | +10.4%-2.8% |
| 52LEAN |  Denzel BostonCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.163% | 50% -100 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Parx+107 | +13.4%+3.5%MODEL + MARKET |
| 43WATCH |  Zay FlowersBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 5.5 Receptions | 5.749% | 47% +115 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | bet365+120 | +2.0%+2.5%MODEL + MARKET |
| 12WATCH |  Mark AndrewsBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.653% | 50% -100 12 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | Pinnacle+101 | +3.4%+0.5%MODEL + MARKET |
| 8WATCH |  Justice HillBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.4957% | 46% +116 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig+117 | +10.7%+0.4%MODEL + MARKET |
| -- | KC Concepcion Jr.CLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 3.277% | 51% -104 9 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig+102 | +26.5%+3.0% |
| -- |  Jerry JeudyCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.4768% | 53% -113 1 bk | L5 80% · L10 90% | bet365-130 | +15.4%-6.1% |
| -- |  Justin JeffersonCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 3.9 | -- | L10 avg 4.1 · szn 3.8 | -- | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
| Player / prop | Game | Side | Book | Price | Fair | Books | EV | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman 1.5 Receptions | BAL@CLE | UNDER | bet365 | +150 | 41.9% | 6 | +4.8% | FLAGGED |
| Zay Flowers 5.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET | BAL@CLE | OVER | bet365 | +120 | 46.9% | 6 | +3.1% | FLAGGED |
Methodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + NegBin. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (targets)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
LIVE BOARD ACCURACY
SAMPLE
2021-2025 regular seasons
PLAYER-GAMES
8,539
MAE (ENGINE VS L5)
1.820 vs 1.887
MAE CHANGE
-3.6% (se 0.3%)
Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
Walk-forward 2021-2025
Catches from target volume and catch rate.