NFL Receptions
PROP / UNVALIDATED152 projections146 with a posted line28 model + marketMAE 1.820 vs 1.887 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results
Lines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49LEAN |  Michael Wilson ARI | ARI@ LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Under 5.5 Receptions | 5.259% | 54% -116 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig-122 | +5.5%-2.2% |
| 47LEAN |  Puka NacuaLAR | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Over 7.5 Receptions | 8.355% | 53% -112 12 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig-108 | +2.1%+2.0%MODEL + MARKET |
| 46LEAN |  Blake CorumLAR | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.2166% | 62% -162 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | bet365-165 | +4.3%-0.7% |
| 42WATCH |  Davis AllenLAR | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Over 0.5 Receptions | 1.2169% | 64% -181 9 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | Novig-182 | +4.5%-0.2% |
| 38WATCH |  Tyler HigbeeLAR | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.463% | 58% -140 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | ProphetX-142 | +4.4%-0.7% |
| 36WATCH |  Kendrick BourneARI | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 2.7270% | 57% -132 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | ProphetX-127 | +13.7%+1.6%MODEL + MARKET |
| 32WATCH |  Colby ParkinsonLAR | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.7350% | 49% +104 12 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | Novig+108 | +1.4%+2.0%MODEL + MARKET |
| 29WATCH |  Trey McBrideARI | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Over 7.5 Receptions | 7.647% | 44% +125 12 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | Novig+122 | +2.5%-1.3% |
| 21WATCH |  Tutu AtwellLAR | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Under 0.5 Receptions | 0.8145% | 42% +138 1 bk | L5 20% · L10 30% | bet365+125 | +3.4%-5.7% |
| 6WATCH |  Davante AdamsLAR | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 4.358% | 57% -133 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Parx-136 | +0.6%-0.8% |
| -- |  Elijah HigginsARI | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.0258% | 48% +109 11 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | ProphetX+109 | +10.4%+0.0%MODEL + MARKET |
| -- |  Jalen BrooksARI | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 0.5589% | 43% +131 11 bk | L5 80% · L10 78% | bet365+125 | +45.9%-2.5% |
| -- |  Tyler AllgeierARI | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 1.6676% | 58% -136 2 bk | L5 80% · L10 90% | bet365-120 | +18.8%+5.7% |
| -- |  Kyren WilliamsLAR | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 4.073% | 56% -125 8 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | Novig-133 | +17.0%-2.8% |
| -- |  Jeremiyah LoveARI | ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.8052% | -- | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-170 | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.