NFL Receiving Yards
PROP / UNVALIDATED152 projections145 with a posted line7 model + marketMAE 25.9 vs 27.1 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results
Lines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52LEAN |  Garrett Wilson NYJ | NYJ@ NESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 72.5 Rec Yds | 58.063% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Pinnacle-113 | +12.6%-5.8% |
| 49LEAN |  Kenyon SadiqNYJ | NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 19.5 Rec Yds | 25.161% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | ProphetX-112 | +11.2%-5.4% |
| 47LEAN |  Rhamondre StevensonNE | NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 19.5 Rec Yds | 23.058% | 50% -100 8 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Pinnacle-112 | +8.1%-5.4% |
| 38WATCH |  Isaiah WilliamsNYJ | NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 17.5 Rec Yds | 21.259% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | bet365-115 | +8.8%-6.5% |
| 34WATCH |  Hunter HenryNE | NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 31.5 Rec Yds | 35.256% | 50% +101 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Caesars-111 | +6.0%-5.6% |
| -- |  Braelon AllenNYJ | NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 14.5 Rec Yds | 3.6100% | 50% -100 8 bk | L5 100% · L10 89% | Novig-106 | +50.0%-2.8% |
| -- |  Isaiah DavisNYJ | NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Rec Yds | 8.081% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | bet365-115 | +30.9%-6.5% |
| -- |  Eli RaridonNE | NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 12.5 Rec Yds | 25.175% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 50% · L10 50% | bet365-115 | +24.9%-6.5% |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
No prices beating the market
No NFL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.
Open the +EV terminalMethodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + Normal. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. XGBoost (Tweedie) + Hurdle-Gamma / Normal, chosen by out-of-sample log score
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (targets)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
LIVE BOARD ACCURACY
SAMPLE
2021-2025 regular seasons
PLAYER-GAMES
8,539
MAE (ENGINE VS L5)
25.9 vs 27.1
MAE CHANGE
-4.4% (se 0.4%)
Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
Walk-forward 2021-2025
Receiving yards from target volume, yards per target and the opponent's pass defense.