NFL Passing Yards
PROP / UNVALIDATED39 projections26 with a posted line0 model + marketMAE 66.1 vs 68.8 (last-5 average)not tracked in the public results
Lines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32WATCH |  Caleb Williams CHI | CHI@ ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 225.5 Pass Yds | 23956% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | FanDuel-114 | +6.2%-6.1% |
| 10WATCH |  Michael Penix Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 236.5 Pass Yds | 23351% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Pinnacle-111 | +1.5%-5.0% |
| -- |  Cooper RushATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Pass Yds (no line yet) | 97.6 | -- | L10 avg 88.7 · szn 115 | -- | -- |
| -- |  Tua TagovailoaATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Pass Yds (no line yet) | 167 | -- | L10 avg 169 · szn 34.0 | -- | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
No prices beating the market
No NFL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.
Open the +EV terminalMethodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + Normal. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. XGBoost (Tweedie) + Hurdle-Gamma / Normal, chosen by out-of-sample log score
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (pass attempts)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
LIVE BOARD ACCURACY
SAMPLE
2021-2025 regular seasons
PLAYER-GAMES
2,626
MAE (ENGINE VS L5)
66.1 vs 68.8
MAE CHANGE
-3.9% (se 0.5%)
Full serving-code replay (nfl.props.engine_eval), opponent factor included, as of each regular-season week, 2021-2025. Accuracy of the projection only; it says nothing about beating a price.
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
Walk-forward 2021-2025
Quarterback passing yards against the books' consensus line, from pass volume and the opponent's passing defense.