| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44WATCH | Under 19.5 Completions | 18.358% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 86% | BetMGM-110 | +7.6%-4.5% | ||
| 40WATCH | Over 22.5 Completions | 24.158% | 51% -105 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | DraftKings-119 | +6.5%-5.5% | ||
| -- | Completions (no line yet) | 11.2 | -- | L10 avg 12.7 · szn 0.00 | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Completions (no line yet) | 15.9 | -- | L10 avg 19.3 · szn 19.3 | -- | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Completions per game from attempt volume and completion rate. No dropback or pace data is modeled.