NFL Pass Completions
PROP / UNVALIDATED39 projections25 with a posted line2 model + marketnot tracked in the public results
Lines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38WATCH |  Caleb Williams CHI | CHI@ ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 19.5 Completions | 20.254% | 50% +101 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | BetMGM-105 | +4.3%-2.8% |
| -- |  Michael Penix Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 20.5 Completions | 17.371% | 54% -115 6 bk | L5 100% · L10 80% | DraftKings-127 | +17.6%-4.4% |
| -- |  Cooper RushATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Completions (no line yet) | 9.9 | -- | L10 avg 9.3 · szn 11.0 | -- | -- |
| -- |  Tua TagovailoaATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Completions (no line yet) | 14.5 | -- | L10 avg 15.6 · szn 2.00 | -- | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
No prices beating the market
No NFL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.
Open the +EV terminalMethodology
DISTRIBUTION
Live board. Empirical EWM + Normal. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.
Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin (opt-in stat)
WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT
- Exponentially weighted game-log average
- Usage-adjusted rate (pass attempts)
- Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped
RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION
SAMPLE
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MAE (MODEL VS BASELINE)
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CRPS (MODEL VS BASELINE)
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BRIER
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ECE
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BLEND c (t)
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Result. Added 2026-10-14; not yet validated
Against prices. No edge shown. On the banked weeks (main line, 3+ books) the model-minus-market Brier gap was -0.005 +/- 0.013 (n=83), indistinguishable from zero.
Completions per game from attempt volume and completion rate. No dropback or pace data is modeled.