NFL Pass Attempts

PROP / UNVALIDATED

0 projections0 with a posted line0 model + marketnot tracked in the public results

Nothing to show

No pass attempts projections right now: no NFL game is on the schedule, or its lines have not posted.

Methodology

DISTRIBUTION

Live board. Empirical EWM + Normal. The daily board runs an empirical estimator: exponentially weighted game-log average, blended with a usage-adjusted rate, scaled by an opponent-allowed factor, with a negative-binomial or normal spread fitted from the league's own game-to-game variance. NFL means are calibrated on 2021-2025 outcomes (accuracy only: the pool of quoted players is over-projected by 3-7%). It does not model injuries, lineups, minutes, weather or teammate absences, and it has not been validated against prices.

Research model. XGBoost (Poisson) + NegBin (opt-in stat)

WHAT THE LIVE BOARD LOOKS AT

Exponentially weighted game-log average
Usage-adjusted rate (pass attempts)
Opponent-allowed factor, shrunk and clipped

RESEARCH MODEL VALIDATION

SAMPLE

MAE (MODEL VS BASELINE)

CRPS (MODEL VS BASELINE)

BRIER

ECE

BLEND c (t)

Result. Added 2026-10-14; not yet validated

Against prices. No edge shown. On the banked weeks (main line, 3+ books) the model-minus-market Brier gap was -0.005 +/- 0.013 (n=83), indistinguishable from zero.

Record. No graded history is published for NFL projections: they are not logged to the public ledger, so there is no win rate or ROI to show.

Source: Walk-forward and banked-market study, 2026-10-14 (NFL prop systems handoff). MAE and CRPS: lower is better. The live board does not run the research model.

Quarterback pass attempts from recent volume. Game script (spread, total) is not modeled on the live board.