Recent
WK·BOS @ NYY+0.11u|LK·PIT @ STL-0.24u|WK·SD @ TB+0.24u|LK·CWS @ MIN-0.46u|WOUTS·PIT @ STL+0.38u|LOUTS·TEX @ MIL-0.43u|WK·PHI @ LAA+0.52u|LOUTS·LAD @ DET-0.64u|WOUTS·SEA @ TOR+1.20u|LOUTS·KC @ CLE-0.59u|WK·BOS @ NYY+0.11u|LK·PIT @ STL-0.24u|WK·SD @ TB+0.24u|LK·CWS @ MIN-0.46u|WOUTS·PIT @ STL+0.38u|LOUTS·TEX @ MIL-0.43u|WK·PHI @ LAA+0.52u|LOUTS·LAD @ DET-0.64u|WOUTS·SEA @ TOR+1.20u|LOUTS·KC @ CLE-0.59u|
The Edge
Models·K

Strikeout Props

v1

Projects starter strikeout totals using pitch movement and command metrics alongside opponent lineup K vulnerability. Poisson regression model; evaluated by MAE not AUC.

Read the betting guide →
OOS MAE
1.807
Out-of-sample
Bets
2228
Paper mode
Win Rate
49.7%
W / (W+L)
ROI
+4.6%
Settled bets
Avg Edge
+4.5%
Model vs implied
Model configuration
AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)
Training Data2021–2025
ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation
Edge Threshold+5% minimum
Kelly Fraction50% Kelly
Bet Gate2228/200 (cleared)
CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate
40-50%10% (1/10)
50-60%49% (38/77)
60-70%67% (2/3)
70-80%75% (3/4)
80-90%0% (0/1)
90-100%80% (4/5)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List
9 features · XGBoost importance ranking
Feature
Description
Importance
Swinging Strike %
SwStr% — single best predictor of strikeout rate
High
Zone %
% of pitches in the strike zone
High
Chase %
% of pitches outside zone that batters swing at
High
Opponent K % (season)
Opposing lineup strikeout rate season-long
High
Opponent K % (L14)
Opposing lineup K rate over last 14 days
Medium
L5 Average Strikeouts
Starter avg Ks over last 5 starts
High
Pitches/PA (season)
Average pitches per PA — more pitches = more K chances
Medium
Home/Away K Split
Starter K rate home vs. away
Low
Ump K Rate
Umpire strikeout tendency vs. league avg
Medium
200-Bet Gate Progress2228/200
Gate Cleared
Total P&L
+72.22u
Avg Edge
+4.5%
Win Rate
49.7%
Sample Size
2228
Settled bets

Full settled history

Today's Picks →
SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Aug 29
100STRONG
K
PHI@LAA
Cristopher SánchezUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-102
imp 50%
+19.8%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.8u
Aug 24
100STRONG
K
BOS@MIA
Ranger SuarezUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+122
imp 45%
+19.2%
draftkings
WIN
+0.7u
Aug 22
100STRONG
K
Cleveland Guardians@Colorado Rockies
Gabriel Hughes2+ Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-115
imp 53%
+44.9%
draftkings
WIN
+0.1u
Aug 21
100STRONG
K
TB@BAL
Freddy PeraltaUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+317
imp 24%
+17.3%
betmgm
LOSS
-0.6u
Aug 24
96STRONG
K
PIT@SD
Robbie RayUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+199
imp 33%
+13.7%
caesars
WIN
+1.2u
Aug 23
94STRONG
K
WSH@MIA
Jackson KentOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+264
imp 27%
+13.0%
novig
WIN
+1.6u
Aug 22
93STRONG
K
CLE@COL
Gabriel HughesOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+144
imp 41%
+12.7%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.6u
Aug 19
93STRONG
K
SF@CLE
Parker MessickUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+217
imp 32%
+12.6%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.8u
Aug 23
92STRONG
K
ATL@MIL
Tyler MahleOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+239
imp 29%
+12.4%
novig
LOSS
-0.6u
Aug 22
92STRONG
K
STL@PHI
Quinn MathewsUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (16 days rest)
+199
imp 33%
+12.3%
betmgm
WIN
+1.4u
Aug 21
90STRONG
K
Washington Nationals@Miami Marlins
Brad Lord2+ Strikeouts
>well-rested (315 days rest)
-339
imp 77%
+20.5%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.1u
Aug 24
89STRONG
K
TB@DET
Framber ValdezOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
-148
imp 60%
+13.0%
draftkings
LOSS
+0.0u
Aug 30
86STRONG
K
PHI@LAA
Zack WheelerUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-144
imp 59%
+12.2%
fanduel
WIN
+0.5u
Aug 28
85STRONG
K
COL@ATL
Tomoyuki SuganoUnder 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+144
imp 41%
+11.0%
caesars
LOSS
-0.9u
Aug 25
85STRONG
K
CLE@LAA
Walbert UreñaOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+130
imp 43%
+10.9%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 21
84STRONG
K
Cincinnati Reds@Arizona Diamondbacks
Nick Lodolo3+ Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
-298
imp 75%
+12.9%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.1u
Aug 29
83STRONG
K
SD@TB
Nick MartinezOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+134
imp 43%
+10.5%
draftkings
WIN
+0.8u
Aug 26
83STRONG
K
PHI@SEA
Jesús LuzardoUnder 9.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-160
imp 62%
+11.6%
draftkings
WIN
+0.5u
Aug 22
82STRONG
K
CIN@ARI
Michael SorokaUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+122
imp 45%
+10.4%
fanduel
WIN
+0.6u
Aug 21
82STRONG
K
DET@KC
Troy MeltonOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-102
imp 50%
+10.3%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 29
81STRONG
K
SD@TB
Walker BuehlerOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+131
imp 43%
+10.2%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.2u
Aug 26
81STRONG
K
CHC@ARI
Eduardo RodriguezOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+126
imp 44%
+10.1%
fanduel
WIN
+0.7u
Aug 25
81STRONG
K
HOU@NYY
Ethan PeckoOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+124
imp 45%
+10.2%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 21
80STRONG
K
WSH@MIA
Brad LordOver 2.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (315 days rest)
-104
imp 51%
+10.0%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 19
80STRONG
K
SEA@MIL
Dustin MayUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+187
imp 35%
+10.0%
caesars
WIN
+1.6u
Aug 19
80STRONG
K
STL@CIN
Chase BurnsUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+270
imp 27%
+10.0%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.7u
Aug 24
79STRONG
K
PHI@SEA
Zack WheelerUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-150
imp 60%
+10.9%
draftkings
WIN
+0.4u
Aug 23
79STRONG
K
CHC@SEA
Bryce MillerOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+330
imp 23%
+9.9%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.6u
Aug 19
78STRONG
K
Toronto Blue Jays@Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Rasmussen3+ Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
-900
imp 90%
+11.7%
draftkings
WIN
+0.0u
Aug 20
77STRONG
K
OAK@KC
Randy DobnakOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+122
imp 45%
+9.4%
fanduel
WIN
+0.4u
KAug 29
100STRONG
PHI@LAA
Cristopher SánchezUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-102
imp 50%
EDGE
+19.8%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.8u
KAug 24
100STRONG
BOS@MIA
Ranger SuarezUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+122
imp 45%
EDGE
+19.2%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.7u
KAug 22
100STRONG
Cleveland Guardians@Colorado Rockies
Gabriel Hughes2+ Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-115
imp 53%
EDGE
+44.9%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.1u
KAug 21
100STRONG
TB@BAL
Freddy PeraltaUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+317
imp 24%
EDGE
+17.3%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-0.6u
KAug 24
96STRONG
PIT@SD
Robbie RayUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+199
imp 33%
EDGE
+13.7%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+1.2u
KAug 23
94STRONG
WSH@MIA
Jackson KentOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+264
imp 27%
EDGE
+13.0%
BOOK
novig
WIN
+1.6u
KAug 22
93STRONG
CLE@COL
Gabriel HughesOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+144
imp 41%
EDGE
+12.7%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.6u
KAug 19
93STRONG
SF@CLE
Parker MessickUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+217
imp 32%
EDGE
+12.6%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.8u
KAug 23
92STRONG
ATL@MIL
Tyler MahleOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+239
imp 29%
EDGE
+12.4%
BOOK
novig
LOSS
-0.6u
KAug 22
92STRONG
STL@PHI
Quinn MathewsUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (16 days rest)
ODDS
+199
imp 33%
EDGE
+12.3%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+1.4u
KAug 21
90STRONG
Washington Nationals@Miami Marlins
Brad Lord2+ Strikeouts
·well-rested (315 days rest)
ODDS
-339
imp 77%
EDGE
+20.5%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.1u
KAug 24
89STRONG
TB@DET
Framber ValdezOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
-148
imp 60%
EDGE
+13.0%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
+0.0u
KAug 30
86STRONG
PHI@LAA
Zack WheelerUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-144
imp 59%
EDGE
+12.2%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+0.5u
KAug 28
85STRONG
COL@ATL
Tomoyuki SuganoUnder 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+144
imp 41%
EDGE
+11.0%
BOOK
caesars
LOSS
-0.9u
KAug 25
85STRONG
CLE@LAA
Walbert UreñaOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+130
imp 43%
EDGE
+10.9%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
KAug 21
84STRONG
Cincinnati Reds@Arizona Diamondbacks
Nick Lodolo3+ Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
-298
imp 75%
EDGE
+12.9%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.1u
KAug 29
83STRONG
SD@TB
Nick MartinezOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+134
imp 43%
EDGE
+10.5%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.8u
KAug 26
83STRONG
PHI@SEA
Jesús LuzardoUnder 9.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-160
imp 62%
EDGE
+11.6%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.5u
KAug 22
82STRONG
CIN@ARI
Michael SorokaUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+122
imp 45%
EDGE
+10.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+0.6u
KAug 21
82STRONG
DET@KC
Troy MeltonOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-102
imp 50%
EDGE
+10.3%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
KAug 29
81STRONG
SD@TB
Walker BuehlerOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+131
imp 43%
EDGE
+10.2%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.2u
KAug 26
81STRONG
CHC@ARI
Eduardo RodriguezOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+126
imp 44%
EDGE
+10.1%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+0.7u
KAug 25
81STRONG
HOU@NYY
Ethan PeckoOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+124
imp 45%
EDGE
+10.2%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
KAug 21
80STRONG
WSH@MIA
Brad LordOver 2.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (315 days rest)
ODDS
-104
imp 51%
EDGE
+10.0%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
KAug 19
80STRONG
SEA@MIL
Dustin MayUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+187
imp 35%
EDGE
+10.0%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+1.6u
KAug 19
80STRONG
STL@CIN
Chase BurnsUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+270
imp 27%
EDGE
+10.0%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.7u
KAug 24
79STRONG
PHI@SEA
Zack WheelerUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-150
imp 60%
EDGE
+10.9%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.4u
KAug 23
79STRONG
CHC@SEA
Bryce MillerOver 6.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+330
imp 23%
EDGE
+9.9%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.6u
KAug 19
78STRONG
Toronto Blue Jays@Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Rasmussen3+ Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
-900
imp 90%
EDGE
+11.7%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.0u
KAug 20
77STRONG
OAK@KC
Randy DobnakOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+122
imp 45%
EDGE
+9.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+0.4u
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