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W1I·KC @ BAL+0.56u|L1I·COL @ SF-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Mariners @ Rays+0.38u|L1I·SEA @ TB-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals+0.41u|L1I·PHI @ DET-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Phillies @ Tigers+0.73u|LBATTER_TB·Astros @ Rangers-0.65u|WBATTER_TB·Royals @ Orioles+0.24u|LBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals-0.39u|W1I·KC @ BAL+0.56u|L1I·COL @ SF-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Mariners @ Rays+0.38u|L1I·SEA @ TB-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals+0.41u|L1I·PHI @ DET-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Phillies @ Tigers+0.73u|LBATTER_TB·Astros @ Rangers-0.65u|WBATTER_TB·Royals @ Orioles+0.24u|LBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals-0.39u|
The Edge
Models·K

Strikeout Props

v1

Projects starter strikeout totals using pitch movement and command metrics alongside opponent lineup K vulnerability. Poisson regression model; evaluated by MAE not AUC.

Read the betting guide →
OOS MAE
1.807
Out-of-sample
Bets
1198
Paper mode
Win Rate
49.2%
W / (W+L)
ROI
+4.8%
Settled bets
Avg Edge
+6.1%
Model vs implied
Model configuration
AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)
Training Data2021–2025
ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation
Edge Threshold+5% minimum
Kelly Fraction50% Kelly
Bet Gate1198/200 (cleared)
CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate
40-50%0% (0/4)
50-60%51% (44/87)
60-70%56% (5/9)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List
9 features · XGBoost importance ranking
Feature
Description
Importance
Swinging Strike %
SwStr% — single best predictor of strikeout rate
High
Zone %
% of pitches in the strike zone
High
Chase %
% of pitches outside zone that batters swing at
High
Opponent K % (season)
Opposing lineup strikeout rate season-long
High
Opponent K % (L14)
Opposing lineup K rate over last 14 days
Medium
L5 Average Strikeouts
Starter avg Ks over last 5 starts
High
Pitches/PA (season)
Average pitches per PA — more pitches = more K chances
Medium
Home/Away K Split
Starter K rate home vs. away
Low
Ump K Rate
Umpire strikeout tendency vs. league avg
Medium
200-Bet Gate Progress1198/200
Gate Cleared
Total P&L
+68.82u
Avg Edge
+6.1%
Win Rate
49.2%
Sample Size
1198
Settled bets

Full settled history

Today's Picks →
SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Jul 8
100STRONG
K
SEA@MIA
Tyler PhillipsUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+140
imp 42%
+17.0%
fanduel
WIN
+2.9u
Jul 1
100STRONG
K
STL@ATL
Reynaldo LópezOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (365 days rest)
+130
imp 43%
+17.1%
fanduel
WIN
+1.5u
Jun 27
100STRONG
K
SEA@CLE
Slade CecconiOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+220
imp 31%
+16.4%
fanduel
WIN
+2.7u
Jul 7
99STRONG
K
TOR@SF
Trevor McDonaldOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (30 days rest)
+134
imp 43%
+14.8%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.3u
Jul 4
96STRONG
K
PIT@WSH
Braxton AshcraftUnder 9.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+130
imp 43%
+13.7%
draftkings
WIN
+3.7u
Jul 3
94STRONG
K
MIA@OAK
Tyler PhillipsUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+120
imp 45%
+12.9%
fanduel
WIN
+2.1u
Jul 1
94STRONG
K
DET@NYY
Will WarrenUnder 8.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-115
imp 53%
+12.8%
caesars
WIN
+0.6u
Jul 11
90STRONG
K
SEA@TB
Griffin JaxUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (17 days rest)
+105
imp 49%
+11.9%
draftkings
WIN
+1.5u
Jul 10
88STRONG
K
LAA@MIN
Grayson RodriguezOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (660 days rest)
+128
imp 44%
+11.6%
draftkings
LOSS
-2.4u
Jul 1
86STRONG
K
SF@ARI
Trevor McDonaldOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (30 days rest)
+104
imp 49%
+11.2%
draftkings
WIN
+1.2u
Jun 27
86STRONG
K
WSH@BAL
Foster GriffinUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (39 days rest)
-120
imp 55%
+12.2%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Jul 10
83STRONG
K
COL@SF
Tanner GordonOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+125
imp 44%
+10.5%
betmgm
LOSS
+0.0u
Jul 8
82STRONG
K
PHI@CIN
Chase BurnsOver 7.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+122
imp 45%
+10.3%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.9u
Jun 28
82STRONG
K
PHI@NYM
Jesús LuzardoUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (7 days rest)
+122
imp 45%
+10.4%
caesars
WIN
+1.0u
Jul 10
81STRONG
K
ARI@LAD
Shohei OhtaniOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (16 days rest)
+121
imp 45%
+10.1%
draftkings
VOID
+0.0u
Jul 3
80STRONG
K
SF@COL
Ryan FeltnerOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+128
imp 44%
+9.9%
fanduel
WIN
+1.9u
Jun 28
80STRONG
K
COL@MIN
Connor PrielippUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+120
imp 45%
+10.1%
caesars
LOSS
-0.8u
Jul 10
79STRONG
K
OAK@CWS
Sean BurkeUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+117
imp 46%
+9.7%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.1u
Jul 1
79STRONG
K
SD@CHC
Colin ReaUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (17 days rest)
+100
imp 50%
+9.7%
betmgm
WIN
+1.1u
Jul 1
78STRONG
K
TEX@CLE
Joey CantilloOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (13 days rest)
+285
imp 26%
+9.6%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.8u
Jun 29
78STRONG
K
MIN@HOU
Peter LambertUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+126
imp 44%
+9.7%
fanduel
WIN
+0.8u
Jul 11
77STRONG
K
ATL@STL
Reynaldo LópezOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (365 days rest)
-102
imp 50%
+9.5%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
Jul 9
76STRONG
K
SEA@MIA
Bryce MillerUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (20 days rest)
+116
imp 46%
+9.3%
draftkings
WIN
+3.1u
Jul 7
76STRONG
K
COL@LAD
Justin WrobleskiUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (32 days rest)
+115
imp 47%
+9.1%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.9u
Jul 6
76STRONG
K
MIL@STL
Dustin MayOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (19 days rest)
+118
imp 46%
+9.1%
fanduel
WIN
+3.2u
Jul 3
75STRONG
K
STL@CHC
David PetersonOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (32 days rest)
+182
imp 35%
+8.9%
novig
LOSS
-1.2u
Jun 30
75STRONG
K
MIA@COL
Tanner GordonOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (249 days rest)
+140
imp 42%
+9.1%
fanduel
WIN
+1.1u
Jun 29
75STRONG
K
WSH@BOS
Miles MikolasOver 2.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+160
imp 38%
+9.0%
betmgm
WIN
+1.2u
Jul 11
74STRONG
K
MIL@PIT
Bubba ChandlerOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+114
imp 47%
+8.7%
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
Jun 30
73STRONG
K
MIN@HOU
Joe RyanUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+119
imp 46%
+8.6%
caesars
WIN
+0.9u
KJul 8
100STRONG
SEA@MIA
Tyler PhillipsUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+140
imp 42%
EDGE
+17.0%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+2.9u
KJul 1
100STRONG
STL@ATL
Reynaldo LópezOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (365 days rest)
ODDS
+130
imp 43%
EDGE
+17.1%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.5u
KJun 27
100STRONG
SEA@CLE
Slade CecconiOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+220
imp 31%
EDGE
+16.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+2.7u
KJul 7
99STRONG
TOR@SF
Trevor McDonaldOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (30 days rest)
ODDS
+134
imp 43%
EDGE
+14.8%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.3u
KJul 4
96STRONG
PIT@WSH
Braxton AshcraftUnder 9.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+130
imp 43%
EDGE
+13.7%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+3.7u
KJul 3
94STRONG
MIA@OAK
Tyler PhillipsUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+120
imp 45%
EDGE
+12.9%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+2.1u
KJul 1
94STRONG
DET@NYY
Will WarrenUnder 8.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-115
imp 53%
EDGE
+12.8%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+0.6u
KJul 11
90STRONG
SEA@TB
Griffin JaxUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (17 days rest)
ODDS
+105
imp 49%
EDGE
+11.9%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.5u
KJul 10
88STRONG
LAA@MIN
Grayson RodriguezOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (660 days rest)
ODDS
+128
imp 44%
EDGE
+11.6%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-2.4u
KJul 1
86STRONG
SF@ARI
Trevor McDonaldOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (30 days rest)
ODDS
+104
imp 49%
EDGE
+11.2%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.2u
KJun 27
86STRONG
WSH@BAL
Foster GriffinUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (39 days rest)
ODDS
-120
imp 55%
EDGE
+12.2%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
KJul 10
83STRONG
COL@SF
Tanner GordonOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+125
imp 44%
EDGE
+10.5%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
+0.0u
KJul 8
82STRONG
PHI@CIN
Chase BurnsOver 7.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+122
imp 45%
EDGE
+10.3%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.9u
KJun 28
82STRONG
PHI@NYM
Jesús LuzardoUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (7 days rest)
ODDS
+122
imp 45%
EDGE
+10.4%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+1.0u
KJul 10
81STRONG
ARI@LAD
Shohei OhtaniOver 6.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (16 days rest)
ODDS
+121
imp 45%
EDGE
+10.1%
BOOK
draftkings
VOID
+0.0u
KJul 3
80STRONG
SF@COL
Ryan FeltnerOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+128
imp 44%
EDGE
+9.9%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.9u
KJun 28
80STRONG
COL@MIN
Connor PrielippUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+120
imp 45%
EDGE
+10.1%
BOOK
caesars
LOSS
-0.8u
KJul 10
79STRONG
OAK@CWS
Sean BurkeUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+117
imp 46%
EDGE
+9.7%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.1u
KJul 1
79STRONG
SD@CHC
Colin ReaUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (17 days rest)
ODDS
+100
imp 50%
EDGE
+9.7%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+1.1u
KJul 1
78STRONG
TEX@CLE
Joey CantilloOver 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (13 days rest)
ODDS
+285
imp 26%
EDGE
+9.6%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.8u
KJun 29
78STRONG
MIN@HOU
Peter LambertUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+126
imp 44%
EDGE
+9.7%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+0.8u
KJul 11
77STRONG
ATL@STL
Reynaldo LópezOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (365 days rest)
ODDS
-102
imp 50%
EDGE
+9.5%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
KJul 9
76STRONG
SEA@MIA
Bryce MillerUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (20 days rest)
ODDS
+116
imp 46%
EDGE
+9.3%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+3.1u
KJul 7
76STRONG
COL@LAD
Justin WrobleskiUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (32 days rest)
ODDS
+115
imp 47%
EDGE
+9.1%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.9u
KJul 6
76STRONG
MIL@STL
Dustin MayOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (19 days rest)
ODDS
+118
imp 46%
EDGE
+9.1%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+3.2u
KJul 3
75STRONG
STL@CHC
David PetersonOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (32 days rest)
ODDS
+182
imp 35%
EDGE
+8.9%
BOOK
novig
LOSS
-1.2u
KJun 30
75STRONG
MIA@COL
Tanner GordonOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (249 days rest)
ODDS
+140
imp 42%
EDGE
+9.1%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.1u
KJun 29
75STRONG
WSH@BOS
Miles MikolasOver 2.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+160
imp 38%
EDGE
+9.0%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+1.2u
KJul 11
74STRONG
MIL@PIT
Bubba ChandlerOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+114
imp 47%
EDGE
+8.7%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
KJun 30
73STRONG
MIN@HOU
Joe RyanUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+119
imp 46%
EDGE
+8.6%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+0.9u
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