Strikeout Props
v1Projects starter strikeout totals using pitch movement and command metrics alongside opponent lineup K vulnerability. Poisson regression model; evaluated by MAE not AUC.
Read the betting guide →OOS MAE
1.807
Out-of-sample
Bets
3075
Paper mode
Win Rate
50.3%
W / (W+L)
ROI
+4.2%
Settled bets
Avg Edge
+4.1%
Model vs implied
Model configuration
AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)
Training Data2021–2025
ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation
Edge Threshold+5% minimum
Kelly Fraction50% Kelly
Bet Gate3075/200 (cleared)
CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate
40-50%38% (3/8)
50-60%46% (33/72)
60-70%50% (5/10)
70-80%100% (1/1)
80-90%67% (2/3)
90-100%83% (5/6)
Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.
Feature List
9 features · XGBoost importance ranking
Feature
Description
Importance
Swinging Strike %
SwStr% — single best predictor of strikeout rate
High
Zone %
% of pitches in the strike zone
High
Chase %
% of pitches outside zone that batters swing at
High
Opponent K % (season)
Opposing lineup strikeout rate season-long
High
Opponent K % (L14)
Opposing lineup K rate over last 14 days
Medium
L5 Average Strikeouts
Starter avg Ks over last 5 starts
High
Pitches/PA (season)
Average pitches per PA — more pitches = more K chances
Medium
Home/Away K Split
Starter K rate home vs. away
Low
Ump K Rate
Umpire strikeout tendency vs. league avg
Medium
200-Bet Gate Progress3075/200
Total P&L
+68.11u
Avg Edge
+4.1%
Win Rate
50.3%
Sample Size
3075
Settled bets
Full settled history
Today's Picks →SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Sep 13
100STRONG
K
KC@
BOSPayton TolleOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+122
imp 45%
+16.6%
fanduel
WIN
+0.6u
Sep 9
100STRONG
K
PIT@
CWSDavis MartinUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (29 days rest)
-104
imp 51%
+17.5%
draftkings
WIN
+0.5u
Sep 15
96STRONG
K
MIL@PITLake BacharOver 2.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (82 days rest)
+135
imp 43%
+13.7%
bet365
LOSS
-0.4u
Sep 13
96STRONG
K
CLE@
MINJoe RyanOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (34 days rest)
+152
imp 40%
+13.7%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Sep 12
95STRONG
K
CWS@
STLKyle LeahyOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (14 days rest)
+138
imp 42%
+13.4%
fanduel
WIN
+0.6u
Sep 14
94STRONG
K
SD@
COLTomoyuki SuganoOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (7 days rest)
+142
imp 41%
+13.0%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Sep 15
93STRONG
K
SEA@
LAALogan GilbertUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+107
imp 48%
+12.6%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
Sep 8
93STRONG
K
TOR@
OAKJack PerkinsOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+140
imp 42%
+12.7%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Sep 6
90STRONG
K
St. Louis Cardinals@Colorado RockiesKyle Leahy2+ Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
-257
imp 72%
+26.7%
draftkings
WIN
+0.2u
Sep 15
89STRONG
K
CWS@CLEDavis MartinOver 2.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (7 days rest)
-140
imp 58%
+13.0%
thescore
LOSS
-0.5u
Sep 6
89STRONG
K
MIL@
CINKyle HarrisonUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+110
imp 48%
+11.8%
fanduel
WIN
+0.6u
Sep 6
88STRONG
K
TB@
TEXMacKenzie GoreOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+131
imp 43%
+11.6%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.3u
Sep 12
83STRONG
K
NYM@
NYYGerrit ColeOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
-105
imp 51%
+10.6%
betmgm
LOSS
-0.5u
Sep 8
83STRONG
K
TEX@SEABryce MillerUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (10 days rest)
+138
imp 42%
+10.6%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Sep 6
82STRONG
K
DET@CLEGavin WilliamsUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (12 days rest)
+125
imp 44%
+10.4%
betmgm
LOSS
-0.4u
Sep 6
80STRONG
K
Washington Nationals@
Los Angeles DodgersAndrew Alvarez3+ Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
-304
imp 75%
+12.0%
draftkings
WIN
+0.1u
Sep 8
79STRONG
K
TOR@OAKJosé SorianoUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+115
imp 47%
+9.8%
betmgm
WIN
+0.0u
Sep 13
78STRONG
K
CIN@MILRobert GasserUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+118
imp 46%
+9.5%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.3u
Sep 11
78STRONG
K
CLE@MINTaj BradleyOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+119
imp 46%
+9.6%
draftkings
WIN
+0.4u
Sep 7
78STRONG
K
CLE@
BALJoey CantilloUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (7 days rest)
+125
imp 44%
+9.6%
betmgm
WIN
+0.5u
Sep 6
78STRONG
K
Toronto Blue Jays@Kansas City RoyalsRandy Dobnak2+ Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-526
imp 84%
+11.7%
draftkings
WIN
+0.1u
Sep 5
76STRONG
K
TOR@KCSeth LugoOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+120
imp 45%
+9.2%
betmgm
LOSS
-0.3u
Sep 5
75STRONG
K
LAA@PITYusei KikuchiUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (7 days rest)
-105
imp 51%
+9.0%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.3u
Sep 11
74STRONG
K
KC@BOSSeth LugoUnder 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+118
imp 46%
+8.9%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.3u
Sep 11
74STRONG
K
CLE@MINParker MessickOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+120
imp 45%
+8.8%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.2u
Sep 4
74STRONG
K
Arizona Diamondbacks@
Houston AstrosCristian Javier2+ Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-2100
imp 95%
+10.8%
draftkings
WIN
+0.0u
Sep 8
73STRONG
K
LAA@BOSPatrick SandovalUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+117
imp 46%
+8.7%
caesars
LOSS
-0.3u
Sep 4
73STRONG
K
Tampa Bay Rays@Texas RangersNick Martinez3+ Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-244
imp 71%
+10.7%
draftkings
WIN
+0.1u
Sep 4
73STRONG
K
San Francisco Giants@New York MetsMatt Wilkinson3+ Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-337
imp 77%
+10.6%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Sep 7
72STRONG
K
CIN@LADChase BurnsOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-110
imp 52%
+8.5%
betmgm
WIN
+0.3u
KSep 13
100STRONG
KC@BOSPayton TolleOver 6.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+122
imp 45%
EDGE
+16.6%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+0.6u
KSep 9
100STRONG
PIT@CWSDavis MartinUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (29 days rest)
ODDS
-104
imp 51%
EDGE
+17.5%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.5u
KSep 15
96STRONG
MIL@PITLake BacharOver 2.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (82 days rest)
ODDS
+135
imp 43%
EDGE
+13.7%
BOOK
bet365
LOSS
-0.4u
KSep 13
96STRONG
CLE@MINJoe RyanOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (34 days rest)
ODDS
+152
imp 40%
EDGE
+13.7%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
KSep 12
95STRONG
CWS@STLKyle LeahyOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (14 days rest)
ODDS
+138
imp 42%
EDGE
+13.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+0.6u
KSep 14
94STRONG
SD@COLTomoyuki SuganoOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (7 days rest)
ODDS
+142
imp 41%
EDGE
+13.0%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
KSep 15
93STRONG
SEA@LAALogan GilbertUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+107
imp 48%
EDGE
+12.6%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
KSep 8
93STRONG
TOR@OAKJack PerkinsOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+140
imp 42%
EDGE
+12.7%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
KSep 6
90STRONG
St. Louis Cardinals@Colorado RockiesKyle Leahy2+ Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
-257
imp 72%
EDGE
+26.7%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.2u
KSep 15
89STRONG
CWS@CLEDavis MartinOver 2.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (7 days rest)
ODDS
-140
imp 58%
EDGE
+13.0%
BOOK
thescore
LOSS
-0.5u
KSep 6
89STRONG
MIL@CINKyle HarrisonUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+110
imp 48%
EDGE
+11.8%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+0.6u
KSep 6
88STRONG
TB@TEXMacKenzie GoreOver 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+131
imp 43%
EDGE
+11.6%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.3u
KSep 12
83STRONG
NYM@NYYGerrit ColeOver 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
-105
imp 51%
EDGE
+10.6%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-0.5u
KSep 8
83STRONG
TEX@SEABryce MillerUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (10 days rest)
ODDS
+138
imp 42%
EDGE
+10.6%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
KSep 6
82STRONG
DET@CLEGavin WilliamsUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (12 days rest)
ODDS
+125
imp 44%
EDGE
+10.4%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-0.4u
KSep 6
80STRONG
Washington Nationals@Los Angeles DodgersAndrew Alvarez3+ Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
-304
imp 75%
EDGE
+12.0%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.1u
KSep 8
79STRONG
TOR@OAKJosé SorianoUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+115
imp 47%
EDGE
+9.8%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+0.0u
KSep 13
78STRONG
CIN@MILRobert GasserUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+118
imp 46%
EDGE
+9.5%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.3u
KSep 11
78STRONG
CLE@MINTaj BradleyOver 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+119
imp 46%
EDGE
+9.6%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.4u
KSep 7
78STRONG
CLE@BALJoey CantilloUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (7 days rest)
ODDS
+125
imp 44%
EDGE
+9.6%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+0.5u
KSep 6
78STRONG
Toronto Blue Jays@Kansas City RoyalsRandy Dobnak2+ Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-526
imp 84%
EDGE
+11.7%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.1u
KSep 5
76STRONG
TOR@KCSeth LugoOver 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+120
imp 45%
EDGE
+9.2%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-0.3u
KSep 5
75STRONG
LAA@PITYusei KikuchiUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (7 days rest)
ODDS
-105
imp 51%
EDGE
+9.0%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.3u
KSep 11
74STRONG
KC@BOSSeth LugoUnder 3.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+118
imp 46%
EDGE
+8.9%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.3u
KSep 11
74STRONG
CLE@MINParker MessickOver 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+120
imp 45%
EDGE
+8.8%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.2u
KSep 4
74STRONG
Arizona Diamondbacks@Houston AstrosCristian Javier2+ Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-2100
imp 95%
EDGE
+10.8%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.0u
KSep 8
73STRONG
LAA@BOSPatrick SandovalUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+117
imp 46%
EDGE
+8.7%
BOOK
caesars
LOSS
-0.3u
KSep 4
73STRONG
Tampa Bay Rays@Texas RangersNick Martinez3+ Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-244
imp 71%
EDGE
+10.7%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.1u
KSep 4
73STRONG
San Francisco Giants@New York MetsMatt Wilkinson3+ Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-337
imp 77%
EDGE
+10.6%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
KSep 7
72STRONG
CIN@LADChase BurnsOver 4.5 Strikeouts
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-110
imp 52%
EDGE
+8.5%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+0.3u
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