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W/BATTER_HITS/Cubs @ Cardinals/+19.72u|W/BATTER_HITS/Cubs @ Cardinals/+11.29u|W/BATTER_HITS/Tigers @ White Sox/+22.10u|W/BATTER_HITS/Twins @ Pirates/+20.16u|W/BATTER_HITS/Diamondbacks @ Mariners/+22.89u|L/BATTER_HITS/Giants @ Rockies/-24.35u|L/BATTER_HITS/Angels @ Rays/-15.40u|L/BATTER_HITS/Giants @ Rockies/-5.07u|L/BATTER_HITS/Red Sox @ Guardians/-16.80u|L/BATTER_HITS/Royals @ Rangers/-0.42u|W/BATTER_HITS/Cubs @ Cardinals/+19.72u|W/BATTER_HITS/Cubs @ Cardinals/+11.29u|W/BATTER_HITS/Tigers @ White Sox/+22.10u|W/BATTER_HITS/Twins @ Pirates/+20.16u|W/BATTER_HITS/Diamondbacks @ Mariners/+22.89u|L/BATTER_HITS/Giants @ Rockies/-24.35u|L/BATTER_HITS/Angels @ Rays/-15.40u|L/BATTER_HITS/Giants @ Rockies/-5.07u|L/BATTER_HITS/Red Sox @ Guardians/-16.80u|L/BATTER_HITS/Royals @ Rangers/-0.42u|
Models·K

Strikeout Props

v1

Projects starter strikeout totals using pitch movement and command metrics alongside opponent lineup K vulnerability. Poisson regression model; evaluated by MAE not AUC.

Read the betting guide →
OOS MAE
1.807
Out-of-sample
Bets
300
Paper mode
Win Rate
48.7%
W / (W+L)
ROI
-8.4%
Settled bets
Avg Edge
+12.9%
Model vs implied
Model Configuration
AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)
Training Data2021–2025
ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation
Edge Threshold+5% minimum
Kelly Fraction50% Kelly
Bet Gate300/200 (cleared)
CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate
40-50%67% (2/3)
50-60%44% (15/34)
60-70%51% (22/43)
70-80%9% (1/11)
80-90%33% (2/6)
90-100%67% (2/3)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List
9 features · XGBoost importance ranking
Feature
Description
Importance
Swinging Strike %
SwStr% — single best predictor of strikeout rate
High
Zone %
% of pitches in the strike zone
High
Chase %
% of pitches outside zone that batters swing at
High
Opponent K % (season)
Opposing lineup strikeout rate season-long
High
Opponent K % (L14)
Opposing lineup K rate over last 14 days
Medium
L5 Average Strikeouts
Starter avg Ks over last 5 starts
High
Pitches/PA (season)
Average pitches per PA — more pitches = more K chances
Medium
Home/Away K Split
Starter K rate home vs. away
Low
Ump K Rate
Umpire strikeout tendency vs. league avg
Medium
200-Bet Gate Progress300/200
Gate Cleared
Total P&L
-43.49u
Avg Edge
+12.9%
Win Rate
48.7%
Sample Size
300
Settled bets

Full Settled History

Today's Picks →
SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
May 29
100STRONG
K
CHC @ STL
Shota ImanagaUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+115
+12.2%
thescore
WIN
+2.9u
May 29
100STRONG
K
ATL @ CIN
Grant HolmesUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (22 days rest)
-105
+13.9%
draftkings
WIN
+2.4u
May 29
100STRONG
K
DET @ CWS
Troy MeltonOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+130
+15.0%
betmgm
LOSS
-2.5u
May 29
100STRONG
K
MIA @ NYM
Freddy PeraltaOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (11 days rest)
-110
+17.8%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.5u
May 28
100STRONG
K
TOR @ BAL
Chris BassittOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (22 days rest)
+130
+20.8%
betmgm
LOSS
-0.7u
May 28
100STRONG
K
ATL @ BOS
Chris SaleUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-102
+12.3%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.3u
May 28
100STRONG
K
HOU @ TEX
Nathan EovaldiOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (17 days rest)
+128
+12.8%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.5u
May 28
100STRONG
K
LAA @ DET
Grayson RodriguezOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (660 days rest)
+126
+13.8%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.5u
May 28
100STRONG
K
CHC @ PIT
Paul SkenesOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (11 days rest)
+105
+17.2%
thescore
WIN
+2.6u
May 28
100STRONG
K
MIN @ CWS
Davis MartinOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (12 days rest)
+100
+29.3%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.5u
May 27
100STRONG
K
ATL @ BOS
Connelly EarlyOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+132
+11.0%
fanduel
WIN
+3.0u
May 27
100STRONG
K
LAA @ DET
Casey MizeOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
-105
+12.4%
draftkings
WIN
+2.2u
May 27
100STRONG
K
SEA @ OAK
Logan GilbertUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (12 days rest)
+111
+14.3%
fanduel
WIN
+2.6u
May 27
100STRONG
K
PHI @ SD
Cristopher SánchezOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-110
+15.5%
betmgm
WIN
+2.1u
May 27
100STRONG
K
HOU @ TEX
Jacob deGromOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-112
+15.6%
draftkings
LOSS
-2.3u
May 27
100STRONG
K
STL @ MIL
Dustin MayUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+105
+20.5%
caesars
LOSS
-2.3u
May 26
100STRONG
K
CIN @ NYM
David PetersonUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (49 days rest)
+126
+18.9%
betmgm
WIN
+3.0u
May 26
100STRONG
K
SEA @ OAK
Emerson HancockOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
-105
+28.8%
thescore
LOSS
+0.0u
May 26
100STRONG
K
ARI @ SF
Eduardo RodriguezOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+105
+12.1%
betmgm
WIN
+0.1u
May 26
100STRONG
K
HOU @ TEX
Jack LeiterOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (11 days rest)
+101
+13.1%
draftkings
LOSS
-2.4u
May 26
100STRONG
K
STL @ MIL
Kyle HarrisonOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+114
+15.4%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.4u
May 26
100STRONG
K
MIA @ TOR
Sandy AlcantaraOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+128
+17.1%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.4u
May 26
100STRONG
K
ATL @ BOS
Ranger SuarezOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (16 days rest)
-105
+17.7%
betmgm
LOSS
-2.4u
May 26
100STRONG
K
NYY @ KC
Cam SchlittlerOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+115
+18.8%
betmgm
WIN
+2.7u
May 26
100STRONG
K
PHI @ SD
Randy VásquezOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (16 days rest)
+125
+29.8%
betmgm
LOSS
-2.4u
May 26
100STRONG
K
SEA @ OAK
Luis SeverinoUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
-122
+31.1%
draftkings
VOID
+0.0u
May 25
100STRONG
K
MIA @ TOR
Trey YesavageUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
+112
+12.2%
betmgm
LOSS
-2.7u
May 25
100STRONG
K
CHC @ PIT
Carmen MlodzinskiOver 4.5 Strikeouts
+124
+18.6%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
May 25
100STRONG
K
ARI @ SF
Landen RouppOver 5.5 Strikeouts
+130
+20.0%
fanduel
WIN
+3.5u
May 25
100STRONG
K
MIN @ CWS
Anthony KayOver 4.5 Strikeouts
+130
+21.1%
fanduel
WIN
+3.5u
KMay 29
100STRONG
CHC @ STL
Shota ImanagaUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+115
EDGE
+12.2%
BOOK
thescore
WIN
+2.9u
KMay 29
100STRONG
ATL @ CIN
Grant HolmesUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (22 days rest)
ODDS
-105
EDGE
+13.9%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+2.4u
KMay 29
100STRONG
DET @ CWS
Troy MeltonOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+130
EDGE
+15.0%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-2.5u
KMay 29
100STRONG
MIA @ NYM
Freddy PeraltaOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
-110
EDGE
+17.8%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.5u
KMay 28
100STRONG
TOR @ BAL
Chris BassittOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (22 days rest)
ODDS
+130
EDGE
+20.8%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-0.7u
KMay 28
100STRONG
ATL @ BOS
Chris SaleUnder 7.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-102
EDGE
+12.3%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.3u
KMay 28
100STRONG
HOU @ TEX
Nathan EovaldiOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (17 days rest)
ODDS
+128
EDGE
+12.8%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.5u
KMay 28
100STRONG
LAA @ DET
Grayson RodriguezOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (660 days rest)
ODDS
+126
EDGE
+13.8%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.5u
KMay 28
100STRONG
CHC @ PIT
Paul SkenesOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
+105
EDGE
+17.2%
BOOK
thescore
WIN
+2.6u
KMay 28
100STRONG
MIN @ CWS
Davis MartinOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (12 days rest)
ODDS
+100
EDGE
+29.3%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.5u
KMay 27
100STRONG
ATL @ BOS
Connelly EarlyOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+132
EDGE
+11.0%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+3.0u
KMay 27
100STRONG
LAA @ DET
Casey MizeOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
-105
EDGE
+12.4%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+2.2u
KMay 27
100STRONG
SEA @ OAK
Logan GilbertUnder 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (12 days rest)
ODDS
+111
EDGE
+14.3%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+2.6u
KMay 27
100STRONG
PHI @ SD
Cristopher SánchezOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-110
EDGE
+15.5%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+2.1u
KMay 27
100STRONG
HOU @ TEX
Jacob deGromOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-112
EDGE
+15.6%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-2.3u
KMay 27
100STRONG
STL @ MIL
Dustin MayUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+105
EDGE
+20.5%
BOOK
caesars
LOSS
-2.3u
KMay 26
100STRONG
CIN @ NYM
David PetersonUnder 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (49 days rest)
ODDS
+126
EDGE
+18.9%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+3.0u
KMay 26
100STRONG
SEA @ OAK
Emerson HancockOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
-105
EDGE
+28.8%
BOOK
thescore
LOSS
+0.0u
KMay 26
100STRONG
ARI @ SF
Eduardo RodriguezOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+105
EDGE
+12.1%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+0.1u
KMay 26
100STRONG
HOU @ TEX
Jack LeiterOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
+101
EDGE
+13.1%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-2.4u
KMay 26
100STRONG
STL @ MIL
Kyle HarrisonOver 6.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+114
EDGE
+15.4%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.4u
KMay 26
100STRONG
MIA @ TOR
Sandy AlcantaraOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+128
EDGE
+17.1%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.4u
KMay 26
100STRONG
ATL @ BOS
Ranger SuarezOver 4.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (16 days rest)
ODDS
-105
EDGE
+17.7%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-2.4u
KMay 26
100STRONG
NYY @ KC
Cam SchlittlerOver 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+115
EDGE
+18.8%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+2.7u
KMay 26
100STRONG
PHI @ SD
Randy VásquezOver 3.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (16 days rest)
ODDS
+125
EDGE
+29.8%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-2.4u
KMay 26
100STRONG
SEA @ OAK
Luis SeverinoUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
>well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
-122
EDGE
+31.1%
BOOK
draftkings
VOID
+0.0u
KMay 25
100STRONG
MIA @ TOR
Trey YesavageUnder 5.5 Strikeouts
ODDS
+112
EDGE
+12.2%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-2.7u
KMay 25
100STRONG
CHC @ PIT
Carmen MlodzinskiOver 4.5 Strikeouts
ODDS
+124
EDGE
+18.6%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
KMay 25
100STRONG
ARI @ SF
Landen RouppOver 5.5 Strikeouts
ODDS
+130
EDGE
+20.0%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+3.5u
KMay 25
100STRONG
MIN @ CWS
Anthony KayOver 4.5 Strikeouts
ODDS
+130
EDGE
+21.1%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+3.5u
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