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The Edge
Models·NRFI

No Run First Inning

v17

Predicts whether the first inning will be scoreless. Trained on pitch-level Statcast data from 2021–2025 with walk-forward cross-validation. Primary signal is the combination of both starters' first-inning tendencies, umpire called-strike tendency, and atmospheric conditions.

Read the betting guide →
OOS AUC
0.577
Out-of-sample
Bets
141
Paper mode
Win Rate
47.5%
W / (W+L)
ROI
-9.3%
Settled bets
Avg Edge
+21.6%
Model vs implied
Model configuration
AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)
Training Data2021–2025
ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation
Edge Threshold+4% minimum
Kelly Fraction50% Kelly
Bet Gate141/200 (in progress)
CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate
50-60%50% (2/4)
60-70%47% (9/19)
70-80%54% (27/50)
80-90%40% (6/15)
90-100%58% (7/12)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List
12 features · XGBoost importance ranking
Feature
Description
Importance
Home Starter ERA (L5)
Home starter ERA over last 5 starts
High
Away Starter ERA (L5)
Away starter ERA over last 5 starts
High
Home Starter K/9 (season)
Home starter strikeout rate
High
Away Starter K/9 (season)
Away starter strikeout rate
High
Umpire Called Strike %
Umpire tendency to call strikes — high = fewer runs
High
Umpire K Rate
Umpire strikeout rate vs. league avg
Medium
Park Factor (runs)
Ballpark run-scoring factor
Medium
Wind Speed (mph)
Wind speed at game time
Medium
Wind Direction
Blowing in vs. out to CF
Medium
Temperature
Game-time temperature
Low
Home Starter NRFI Rate
Historical NRFI rate for home starter
High
Away Starter NRFI Rate
Historical NRFI rate for away starter
High
200-Bet Gate Progress141/200
Paper Mode
Total P&L
-27.17u
Avg Edge
+21.6%
Win Rate
47.5%
Sample Size
141
Settled bets

Full settled history

Today's Picks →
SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
May 25
100STRONG
NRFI
WSH@CLE
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-110
imp 52%
+20.9%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
May 25
100STRONG
NRFI
HOU@TEX
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-115
imp 53%
+26.2%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
May 25
100STRONG
NRFI
COL@LAD
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+114
imp 47%
+28.8%
fanduel
WIN
+1.9u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
LAD@MIL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-113
imp 53%
+22.4%
fanduel
WIN
+1.2u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
COL@ARI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+104
imp 49%
+31.0%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
May 23
100STRONG
NRFI
STL@CIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+102
imp 50%
+26.4%
fanduel
WIN
+1.7u
May 23
100STRONG
NRFI
COL@ARI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+108
imp 48%
+33.2%
fanduel
WIN
+1.8u
May 22
100STRONG
NRFI
TB@NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-102
imp 50%
+23.7%
fanduel
WIN
+1.1u
May 22
100STRONG
NRFI
LAD@MIL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-110
imp 52%
+28.4%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.1u
May 22
100STRONG
NRFI
STL@CIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-105
imp 51%
+30.7%
caesars
WIN
+1.1u
May 20
100STRONG
NRFI
OAK@LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+120
imp 45%
+23.5%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
May 19
100STRONG
NRFI
HOU@MIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-106
imp 51%
+18.1%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.9u
May 19
100STRONG
NRFI
OAK@LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-104
imp 51%
+18.7%
fanduel
WIN
+2.8u
May 19
100STRONG
NRFI
NYM@WSH
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-108
imp 52%
+27.8%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.9u
May 19
100STRONG
NRFI
TOR@NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+102
imp 50%
+31.6%
fanduel
WIN
+3.0u
May 18
100STRONG
NRFI
OAK@LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-104
imp 51%
+16.4%
fanduel
WIN
+2.6u
May 18
100STRONG
NRFI
ATL@MIA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-115
imp 53%
+21.2%
betmgm
WIN
+2.4u
May 18
100STRONG
NRFI
BOS@KC
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-102
imp 50%
+23.1%
fanduel
WIN
+2.7u
May 18
100STRONG
NRFI
SF@ARI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+102
imp 50%
+24.9%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
May 18
100STRONG
NRFI
TOR@NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+114
imp 47%
+25.2%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
May 18
100STRONG
NRFI
MIL@CHC
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+114
imp 47%
+31.9%
fanduel
WIN
+3.1u
May 18
100STRONG
NRFI
NYM@WSH
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+116
imp 46%
+32.2%
fanduel
WIN
+3.2u
May 18
100STRONG
NRFI
TEX@COL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-110
imp 52%
+37.1%
betmgm
LOSS
-2.7u
May 18
100STRONG
NRFI
CIN@PHI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+108
imp 48%
+38.4%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
May 17
100STRONG
NRFI
CIN@CLE
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
-105
imp 51%
+49.8%
--
WIN
+2.1u
May 17
100STRONG
NRFI
NYY@NYM
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
-105
imp 51%
+51.0%
--
LOSS
-2.2u
May 17
100STRONG
NRFI
LAD@LAA
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
+100
imp 50%
+51.4%
--
LOSS
-2.2u
May 17
100STRONG
NRFI
CHC@CWS
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
-102
imp 50%
+51.8%
--
WIN
+2.2u
May 17
100STRONG
NRFI
MIL@MIN
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
+105
imp 49%
+52.7%
--
WIN
+2.4u
May 17
100STRONG
NRFI
TEX@HOU
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
+120
imp 45%
+55.3%
--
LOSS
-2.2u
NRFIMay 25
100STRONG
WSH@CLE
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-110
imp 52%
EDGE
+20.9%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
NRFIMay 25
100STRONG
HOU@TEX
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-115
imp 53%
EDGE
+26.2%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
NRFIMay 25
100STRONG
COL@LAD
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+114
imp 47%
EDGE
+28.8%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.9u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
LAD@MIL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-113
imp 53%
EDGE
+22.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.2u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
COL@ARI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+104
imp 49%
EDGE
+31.0%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
NRFIMay 23
100STRONG
STL@CIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+102
imp 50%
EDGE
+26.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.7u
NRFIMay 23
100STRONG
COL@ARI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+108
imp 48%
EDGE
+33.2%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.8u
NRFIMay 22
100STRONG
TB@NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-102
imp 50%
EDGE
+23.7%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.1u
NRFIMay 22
100STRONG
LAD@MIL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-110
imp 52%
EDGE
+28.4%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.1u
NRFIMay 22
100STRONG
STL@CIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-105
imp 51%
EDGE
+30.7%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+1.1u
NRFIMay 20
100STRONG
OAK@LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+120
imp 45%
EDGE
+23.5%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
NRFIMay 19
100STRONG
HOU@MIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-106
imp 51%
EDGE
+18.1%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.9u
NRFIMay 19
100STRONG
OAK@LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-104
imp 51%
EDGE
+18.7%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+2.8u
NRFIMay 19
100STRONG
NYM@WSH
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-108
imp 52%
EDGE
+27.8%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.9u
NRFIMay 19
100STRONG
TOR@NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+102
imp 50%
EDGE
+31.6%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+3.0u
NRFIMay 18
100STRONG
OAK@LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-104
imp 51%
EDGE
+16.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+2.6u
NRFIMay 18
100STRONG
ATL@MIA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-115
imp 53%
EDGE
+21.2%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+2.4u
NRFIMay 18
100STRONG
BOS@KC
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-102
imp 50%
EDGE
+23.1%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+2.7u
NRFIMay 18
100STRONG
SF@ARI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+102
imp 50%
EDGE
+24.9%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
NRFIMay 18
100STRONG
TOR@NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+114
imp 47%
EDGE
+25.2%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
NRFIMay 18
100STRONG
MIL@CHC
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+114
imp 47%
EDGE
+31.9%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+3.1u
NRFIMay 18
100STRONG
NYM@WSH
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+116
imp 46%
EDGE
+32.2%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+3.2u
NRFIMay 18
100STRONG
TEX@COL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-110
imp 52%
EDGE
+37.1%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-2.7u
NRFIMay 18
100STRONG
CIN@PHI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+108
imp 48%
EDGE
+38.4%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
NRFIMay 17
100STRONG
CIN@CLE
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-105
imp 51%
EDGE
+49.8%
BOOK
--
WIN
+2.1u
NRFIMay 17
100STRONG
NYY@NYM
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-105
imp 51%
EDGE
+51.0%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-2.2u
NRFIMay 17
100STRONG
LAD@LAA
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+100
imp 50%
EDGE
+51.4%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-2.2u
NRFIMay 17
100STRONG
CHC@CWS
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-102
imp 50%
EDGE
+51.8%
BOOK
--
WIN
+2.2u
NRFIMay 17
100STRONG
MIL@MIN
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+105
imp 49%
EDGE
+52.7%
BOOK
--
WIN
+2.4u
NRFIMay 17
100STRONG
TEX@HOU
Run in 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+120
imp 45%
EDGE
+55.3%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-2.2u
1-30 of 100