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W/BATTER_HITS/Cubs @ Cardinals/+19.72u|W/BATTER_HITS/Cubs @ Cardinals/+11.29u|W/BATTER_HITS/Tigers @ White Sox/+22.10u|W/BATTER_HITS/Twins @ Pirates/+20.16u|W/BATTER_HITS/Diamondbacks @ Mariners/+22.89u|L/BATTER_HITS/Giants @ Rockies/-24.35u|L/BATTER_HITS/Angels @ Rays/-15.40u|L/BATTER_HITS/Giants @ Rockies/-5.07u|L/BATTER_HITS/Red Sox @ Guardians/-16.80u|L/BATTER_HITS/Royals @ Rangers/-0.42u|W/BATTER_HITS/Cubs @ Cardinals/+19.72u|W/BATTER_HITS/Cubs @ Cardinals/+11.29u|W/BATTER_HITS/Tigers @ White Sox/+22.10u|W/BATTER_HITS/Twins @ Pirates/+20.16u|W/BATTER_HITS/Diamondbacks @ Mariners/+22.89u|L/BATTER_HITS/Giants @ Rockies/-24.35u|L/BATTER_HITS/Angels @ Rays/-15.40u|L/BATTER_HITS/Giants @ Rockies/-5.07u|L/BATTER_HITS/Red Sox @ Guardians/-16.80u|L/BATTER_HITS/Royals @ Rangers/-0.42u|
Models·NRFI

No Run First Inning

v17

Predicts whether the first inning will be scoreless. Trained on pitch-level Statcast data from 2021–2025 with walk-forward cross-validation. Primary signal is the combination of both starters' first-inning tendencies, umpire called-strike tendency, and atmospheric conditions.

Read the betting guide →
OOS AUC
0.577
Out-of-sample
Bets
141
Paper mode
Win Rate
47.5%
W / (W+L)
ROI
-9.3%
Settled bets
Avg Edge
+21.6%
Model vs implied
Model Configuration
AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)
Training Data2021–2025
ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation
Edge Threshold+4% minimum
Kelly Fraction50% Kelly
Bet Gate141/200 (in progress)
CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate
50-60%50% (2/4)
60-70%50% (10/20)
70-80%54% (27/50)
80-90%43% (6/14)
90-100%58% (7/12)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List
12 features · XGBoost importance ranking
Feature
Description
Importance
Home Starter ERA (L5)
Home starter ERA over last 5 starts
High
Away Starter ERA (L5)
Away starter ERA over last 5 starts
High
Home Starter K/9 (season)
Home starter strikeout rate
High
Away Starter K/9 (season)
Away starter strikeout rate
High
Umpire Called Strike %
Umpire tendency to call strikes — high = fewer runs
High
Umpire K Rate
Umpire strikeout rate vs. league avg
Medium
Park Factor (runs)
Ballpark run-scoring factor
Medium
Wind Speed (mph)
Wind speed at game time
Medium
Wind Direction
Blowing in vs. out to CF
Medium
Temperature
Game-time temperature
Low
Home Starter NRFI Rate
Historical NRFI rate for home starter
High
Away Starter NRFI Rate
Historical NRFI rate for away starter
High
200-Bet Gate Progress141/200
Paper Mode
Total P&L
-27.17u
Avg Edge
+21.6%
Win Rate
47.5%
Sample Size
141
Settled bets

Full Settled History

Today's Picks →
SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
May 25
100STRONG
NRFI
SEA @ OAK
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+124
+13.3%
fanduel
WIN
+2.0u
May 25
100STRONG
NRFI
MIN @ CWS
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-105
+13.8%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
May 25
100STRONG
NRFI
CHC @ PIT
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-120
+19.2%
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
May 25
100STRONG
NRFI
WSH @ CLE
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-110
+20.9%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
May 25
100STRONG
NRFI
MIA @ TOR
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-128
+21.4%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.6u
May 25
100STRONG
NRFI
HOU @ TEX
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-115
+26.2%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
May 25
100STRONG
NRFI
COL @ LAD
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+114
+28.8%
fanduel
WIN
+1.9u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
CWS @ SF
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-128
+12.0%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
PIT @ TOR
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-125
+19.6%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.4u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
DET @ BAL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-120
+21.7%
draftkings
WIN
+1.2u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
LAD @ MIL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-113
+22.4%
fanduel
WIN
+1.2u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
CLE @ PHI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-125
+24.9%
draftkings
WIN
+1.1u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
TEX @ LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-122
+26.4%
fanduel
WIN
+1.1u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
SEA @ KC
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-120
+29.5%
caesars
LOSS
-1.4u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
TB @ NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-125
+30.8%
draftkings
WIN
+1.1u
May 24
100STRONG
NRFI
COL @ ARI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+104
+31.0%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
May 23
100STRONG
NRFI
WSH @ ATL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+100
+13.5%
fanduel
WIN
+1.6u
May 23
100STRONG
NRFI
DET @ BAL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-125
+19.1%
caesars
LOSS
-1.6u
May 23
100STRONG
NRFI
STL @ CIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+102
+26.4%
fanduel
WIN
+1.7u
May 23
100STRONG
NRFI
SEA @ KC
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-120
+27.4%
caesars
LOSS
-1.6u
May 23
100STRONG
NRFI
COL @ ARI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+108
+33.2%
fanduel
WIN
+1.8u
May 22
100STRONG
NRFI
TB @ NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-102
+23.7%
fanduel
WIN
+1.1u
May 22
100STRONG
NRFI
LAD @ MIL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-110
+28.4%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.1u
May 22
100STRONG
NRFI
STL @ CIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-105
+30.7%
caesars
WIN
+1.1u
May 21
100STRONG
NRFI
OAK @ LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-120
+10.5%
caesars
LOSS
-1.6u
May 21
100STRONG
NRFI
ATL @ MIA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-125
+27.3%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
May 20
100STRONG
NRFI
OAK @ LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
+120
+23.5%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
May 20
100STRONG
NRFI
TOR @ NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-125
+30.3%
draftkings
WIN
+2.2u
May 20
100STRONG
NRFI
LAD @ SD
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-122
+37.0%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
May 19
100STRONG
NRFI
HOU @ MIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
-106
+18.1%
fanduel
LOSS
-2.9u
NRFIMay 25
100STRONG
SEA @ OAK
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+124
EDGE
+13.3%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+2.0u
NRFIMay 25
100STRONG
MIN @ CWS
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-105
EDGE
+13.8%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
NRFIMay 25
100STRONG
CHC @ PIT
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-120
EDGE
+19.2%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
NRFIMay 25
100STRONG
WSH @ CLE
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-110
EDGE
+20.9%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
NRFIMay 25
100STRONG
MIA @ TOR
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-128
EDGE
+21.4%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.6u
NRFIMay 25
100STRONG
HOU @ TEX
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-115
EDGE
+26.2%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
NRFIMay 25
100STRONG
COL @ LAD
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+114
EDGE
+28.8%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.9u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
CWS @ SF
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-128
EDGE
+12.0%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
PIT @ TOR
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-125
EDGE
+19.6%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.4u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
DET @ BAL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-120
EDGE
+21.7%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.2u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
LAD @ MIL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-113
EDGE
+22.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.2u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
CLE @ PHI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-125
EDGE
+24.9%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.1u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
TEX @ LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-122
EDGE
+26.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.1u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
SEA @ KC
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-120
EDGE
+29.5%
BOOK
caesars
LOSS
-1.4u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
TB @ NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-125
EDGE
+30.8%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.1u
NRFIMay 24
100STRONG
COL @ ARI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+104
EDGE
+31.0%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
NRFIMay 23
100STRONG
WSH @ ATL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+100
EDGE
+13.5%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.6u
NRFIMay 23
100STRONG
DET @ BAL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-125
EDGE
+19.1%
BOOK
caesars
LOSS
-1.6u
NRFIMay 23
100STRONG
STL @ CIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+102
EDGE
+26.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.7u
NRFIMay 23
100STRONG
SEA @ KC
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-120
EDGE
+27.4%
BOOK
caesars
LOSS
-1.6u
NRFIMay 23
100STRONG
COL @ ARI
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+108
EDGE
+33.2%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.8u
NRFIMay 22
100STRONG
TB @ NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-102
EDGE
+23.7%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.1u
NRFIMay 22
100STRONG
LAD @ MIL
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-110
EDGE
+28.4%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.1u
NRFIMay 22
100STRONG
STL @ CIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-105
EDGE
+30.7%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+1.1u
NRFIMay 21
100STRONG
OAK @ LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-120
EDGE
+10.5%
BOOK
caesars
LOSS
-1.6u
NRFIMay 21
100STRONG
ATL @ MIA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-125
EDGE
+27.3%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.6u
NRFIMay 20
100STRONG
OAK @ LAA
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
+120
EDGE
+23.5%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
NRFIMay 20
100STRONG
TOR @ NYY
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-125
EDGE
+30.3%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+2.2u
NRFIMay 20
100STRONG
LAD @ SD
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-122
EDGE
+37.0%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.7u
NRFIMay 19
100STRONG
HOU @ MIN
No Run 1st InningFirst inning run market
ODDS
-106
EDGE
+18.1%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-2.9u
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