Recent
W1I·KC @ BAL+0.56u|L1I·COL @ SF-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Mariners @ Rays+0.38u|L1I·SEA @ TB-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals+0.41u|L1I·PHI @ DET-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Phillies @ Tigers+0.73u|LBATTER_TB·Astros @ Rangers-0.65u|WBATTER_TB·Royals @ Orioles+0.24u|LBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals-0.39u|W1I·KC @ BAL+0.56u|L1I·COL @ SF-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Mariners @ Rays+0.38u|L1I·SEA @ TB-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals+0.41u|L1I·PHI @ DET-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Phillies @ Tigers+0.73u|LBATTER_TB·Astros @ Rangers-0.65u|WBATTER_TB·Royals @ Orioles+0.24u|LBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals-0.39u|
The Edge
Models·F5

First 5 Innings

v5

Predicts F5 spread and total outcomes. F5 bets isolate starting pitcher performance and remove bullpen variance. Model focuses on starter quality metrics, recent form, and opponent quality.

Read the betting guide →
OOS AUC
0.553
Out-of-sample
Bets
748
Paper mode
Win Rate
47.7%
W / (W+L)
ROI
-9.9%
Settled bets
Avg Edge
+6.3%
Model vs implied
Model configuration
AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)
Training Data2022–2025
ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation
Edge Threshold+4% minimum
Kelly Fraction50% Kelly
Bet Gate748/200 (cleared)
CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate
30-40%100% (1/1)
40-50%27% (3/11)
50-60%33% (5/15)
60-70%42% (14/33)
70-80%39% (7/18)
80-90%35% (6/17)
90-100%20% (1/5)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List
8 features · XGBoost importance ranking
Feature
Description
Importance
Starter SIERA
Skill-Interactive ERA — best predictor of future performance
High
Starter ERA (L5)
ERA over last 5 starts
High
Opponent wOBA
Opponent weighted on-base average (season)
High
Opponent wOBA (L14)
Opponent wOBA over last 14 days
Medium
Starter IP/Start
Average innings per start — durability proxy
Medium
Umpire Run Rate
Umpire tendency to allow runs vs. league avg
Medium
Park Factor (runs)
Ballpark run-scoring factor
Low
Home/Away Split
Starter ERA home vs. away differential
Low
200-Bet Gate Progress748/200
Gate Cleared
Total P&L
-74.44u
Avg Edge
+6.3%
Win Rate
47.7%
Sample Size
748
Settled bets

Full settled history

Today's Picks →
SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Jun 10
100STRONG
F5
BOS@TB
BOS First 5 Innings MoneylineBOS First 5 Innings Moneyline
+140
imp 42%
+16.2%
--
LOSS
-4.5u
Jun 10
100STRONG
F5
CHC@COL
COL First 5 Innings MoneylineCOL First 5 Innings Moneyline
>wind blowing out
>wind blowing in
+140
imp 42%
+16.5%
--
LOSS
-4.5u
Jun 10
100STRONG
F5
PHI@TOR
TOR First 5 Innings MoneylineTOR First 5 Innings Moneyline
+132
imp 43%
+31.9%
--
LOSS
-4.5u
Jun 10
100STRONG
F5
LAD@PIT
PIT First 5 Innings MoneylinePIT First 5 Innings Moneyline
+185
imp 35%
+55.2%
--
LOSS
-4.5u
Jun 9
100STRONG
F5
WSH@SF
SF First 5 Innings MoneylineSF First 5 Innings Moneyline
>wind blowing in
-105
imp 51%
+16.0%
--
LOSS
-7.6u
Jun 9
100STRONG
F5
BOS@TB
TB First 5 Innings MoneylineTB First 5 Innings Moneyline
+100
imp 50%
+17.0%
--
WIN
+7.6u
Jun 9
100STRONG
F5
PHI@TOR
PHI First 5 Innings MoneylinePHI First 5 Innings Moneyline
-110
imp 52%
+18.0%
--
WIN
+6.9u
Jun 8
100STRONG
F5
NYY@CLE
NYY First 5 Innings MoneylineNYY First 5 Innings Moneyline
+110
imp 48%
+30.4%
--
WIN
+5.9u
Jun 7
100STRONG
F5
BAL@TOR
BAL First 5 Innings MoneylineBAL First 5 Innings Moneyline
+115
imp 47%
+16.7%
--
WIN
+3.7u
Jun 7
100STRONG
F5
NYM@SD
SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline
-110
imp 52%
+21.1%
--
LOSS
-3.2u
Jun 7
100STRONG
F5
SEA@DET
SEA First 5 Innings MoneylineSEA First 5 Innings Moneyline
-104
imp 51%
+36.0%
--
PUSH
+0.0u
Jun 6
100STRONG
F5
NYM@SD
SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline
+120
imp 45%
+28.7%
--
PUSH
+0.0u
Jun 6
100STRONG
F5
BAL@TOR
TOR First 5 Innings MoneylineTOR First 5 Innings Moneyline
-105
imp 51%
+32.9%
--
WIN
+5.5u
Jun 6
100STRONG
F5
CIN@STL
STL First 5 Innings MoneylineSTL First 5 Innings Moneyline
-118
imp 54%
+35.3%
--
LOSS
-5.8u
Jun 6
100STRONG
F5
CLE@TEX
CLE First 5 Innings MoneylineCLE First 5 Innings Moneyline
>wind blowing out
+104
imp 49%
+37.5%
--
WIN
+6.0u
Jun 6
100STRONG
F5
MIL@COL
COL First 5 Innings MoneylineCOL First 5 Innings Moneyline
>hitter-friendly park (1.33x)
+225
imp 31%
+37.7%
--
LOSS
-5.8u
Jun 5
100STRONG
F5
CIN@STL
CIN First 5 Innings MoneylineCIN First 5 Innings Moneyline
+115
imp 47%
+16.7%
--
LOSS
-4.2u
Jun 5
100STRONG
F5
CLE@TEX
TEX First 5 Innings MoneylineTEX First 5 Innings Moneyline
+118
imp 46%
+22.5%
--
LOSS
-4.2u
Jun 5
100STRONG
F5
SF@CHC
SF First 5 Innings MoneylineSF First 5 Innings Moneyline
+140
imp 42%
+30.4%
--
WIN
+5.9u
Jun 4
100STRONG
F5
SF@MIL
SF First 5 Innings MoneylineSF First 5 Innings Moneyline
+140
imp 42%
+21.8%
--
WIN
+3.1u
Jun 4
100STRONG
F5
PIT@HOU
PIT First 5 Innings MoneylinePIT First 5 Innings Moneyline
-118
imp 54%
+36.7%
--
WIN
+1.9u
Jun 4
100STRONG
F5
BAL@BOS
BOS First 5 Innings MoneylineBOS First 5 Innings Moneyline
-118
imp 54%
+39.9%
--
LOSS
-2.2u
Jun 3
100STRONG
F5
DET@TB
DET First 5 Innings MoneylineDET First 5 Innings Moneyline
+118
imp 46%
+17.0%
--
WIN
+6.4u
Jun 3
100STRONG
F5
KC@CIN
KC First 5 Innings MoneylineKC First 5 Innings Moneyline
>hitter-friendly park (1.08x)
+144
imp 41%
+21.6%
--
PUSH
+0.0u
Jun 3
100STRONG
F5
PIT@HOU
HOU First 5 Innings MoneylineHOU First 5 Innings Moneyline
+154
imp 39%
+28.4%
--
LOSS
-5.4u
Jun 3
100STRONG
F5
CWS@MIN
CWS First 5 Innings MoneylineCWS First 5 Innings Moneyline
+140
imp 42%
+30.6%
--
WIN
+7.6u
Jun 3
100STRONG
F5
SD@PHI
SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline
+215
imp 32%
+45.6%
--
LOSS
-5.4u
Jun 2
100STRONG
F5
BAL@BOS
BAL First 5 Innings MoneylineBAL First 5 Innings Moneyline
+115
imp 47%
+16.7%
--
WIN
+6.5u
Jun 2
100STRONG
F5
MIA@WSH
WSH First 5 Innings MoneylineWSH First 5 Innings Moneyline
-116
imp 54%
+21.5%
--
LOSS
-5.7u
Jun 2
100STRONG
F5
SD@PHI
SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline
+130
imp 43%
+34.0%
--
PUSH
+0.0u
F5Jun 10
100STRONG
BOS@TB
BOS First 5 Innings MoneylineBOS First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+140
imp 42%
EDGE
+16.2%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-4.5u
F5Jun 10
100STRONG
CHC@COL
COL First 5 Innings MoneylineCOL First 5 Innings Moneyline
·wind blowing out
·wind blowing in
ODDS
+140
imp 42%
EDGE
+16.5%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-4.5u
F5Jun 10
100STRONG
PHI@TOR
TOR First 5 Innings MoneylineTOR First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+132
imp 43%
EDGE
+31.9%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-4.5u
F5Jun 10
100STRONG
LAD@PIT
PIT First 5 Innings MoneylinePIT First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+185
imp 35%
EDGE
+55.2%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-4.5u
F5Jun 9
100STRONG
WSH@SF
SF First 5 Innings MoneylineSF First 5 Innings Moneyline
·wind blowing in
ODDS
-105
imp 51%
EDGE
+16.0%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-7.6u
F5Jun 9
100STRONG
BOS@TB
TB First 5 Innings MoneylineTB First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+100
imp 50%
EDGE
+17.0%
BOOK
--
WIN
+7.6u
F5Jun 9
100STRONG
PHI@TOR
PHI First 5 Innings MoneylinePHI First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
-110
imp 52%
EDGE
+18.0%
BOOK
--
WIN
+6.9u
F5Jun 8
100STRONG
NYY@CLE
NYY First 5 Innings MoneylineNYY First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+110
imp 48%
EDGE
+30.4%
BOOK
--
WIN
+5.9u
F5Jun 7
100STRONG
BAL@TOR
BAL First 5 Innings MoneylineBAL First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+115
imp 47%
EDGE
+16.7%
BOOK
--
WIN
+3.7u
F5Jun 7
100STRONG
NYM@SD
SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
-110
imp 52%
EDGE
+21.1%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-3.2u
F5Jun 7
100STRONG
SEA@DET
SEA First 5 Innings MoneylineSEA First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
-104
imp 51%
EDGE
+36.0%
BOOK
--
PUSH
+0.0u
F5Jun 6
100STRONG
NYM@SD
SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+120
imp 45%
EDGE
+28.7%
BOOK
--
PUSH
+0.0u
F5Jun 6
100STRONG
BAL@TOR
TOR First 5 Innings MoneylineTOR First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
-105
imp 51%
EDGE
+32.9%
BOOK
--
WIN
+5.5u
F5Jun 6
100STRONG
CIN@STL
STL First 5 Innings MoneylineSTL First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
-118
imp 54%
EDGE
+35.3%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-5.8u
F5Jun 6
100STRONG
CLE@TEX
CLE First 5 Innings MoneylineCLE First 5 Innings Moneyline
·wind blowing out
ODDS
+104
imp 49%
EDGE
+37.5%
BOOK
--
WIN
+6.0u
F5Jun 6
100STRONG
MIL@COL
COL First 5 Innings MoneylineCOL First 5 Innings Moneyline
·hitter-friendly park (1.33x)
ODDS
+225
imp 31%
EDGE
+37.7%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-5.8u
F5Jun 5
100STRONG
CIN@STL
CIN First 5 Innings MoneylineCIN First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+115
imp 47%
EDGE
+16.7%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-4.2u
F5Jun 5
100STRONG
CLE@TEX
TEX First 5 Innings MoneylineTEX First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+118
imp 46%
EDGE
+22.5%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-4.2u
F5Jun 5
100STRONG
SF@CHC
SF First 5 Innings MoneylineSF First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+140
imp 42%
EDGE
+30.4%
BOOK
--
WIN
+5.9u
F5Jun 4
100STRONG
SF@MIL
SF First 5 Innings MoneylineSF First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+140
imp 42%
EDGE
+21.8%
BOOK
--
WIN
+3.1u
F5Jun 4
100STRONG
PIT@HOU
PIT First 5 Innings MoneylinePIT First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
-118
imp 54%
EDGE
+36.7%
BOOK
--
WIN
+1.9u
F5Jun 4
100STRONG
BAL@BOS
BOS First 5 Innings MoneylineBOS First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
-118
imp 54%
EDGE
+39.9%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-2.2u
F5Jun 3
100STRONG
DET@TB
DET First 5 Innings MoneylineDET First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+118
imp 46%
EDGE
+17.0%
BOOK
--
WIN
+6.4u
F5Jun 3
100STRONG
KC@CIN
KC First 5 Innings MoneylineKC First 5 Innings Moneyline
·hitter-friendly park (1.08x)
ODDS
+144
imp 41%
EDGE
+21.6%
BOOK
--
PUSH
+0.0u
F5Jun 3
100STRONG
PIT@HOU
HOU First 5 Innings MoneylineHOU First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+154
imp 39%
EDGE
+28.4%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-5.4u
F5Jun 3
100STRONG
CWS@MIN
CWS First 5 Innings MoneylineCWS First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+140
imp 42%
EDGE
+30.6%
BOOK
--
WIN
+7.6u
F5Jun 3
100STRONG
SD@PHI
SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+215
imp 32%
EDGE
+45.6%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-5.4u
F5Jun 2
100STRONG
BAL@BOS
BAL First 5 Innings MoneylineBAL First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+115
imp 47%
EDGE
+16.7%
BOOK
--
WIN
+6.5u
F5Jun 2
100STRONG
MIA@WSH
WSH First 5 Innings MoneylineWSH First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
-116
imp 54%
EDGE
+21.5%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-5.7u
F5Jun 2
100STRONG
SD@PHI
SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline
ODDS
+130
imp 43%
EDGE
+34.0%
BOOK
--
PUSH
+0.0u
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