Models·F5

First 5 Innings

Predicts F5 spread and total outcomes. F5 bets isolate starting pitcher performance and remove bullpen variance. Model focuses on starter quality metrics, recent form, and opponent quality.

Read the betting guide →

OOS AUC

0.553

Out-of-sample

Bets

222

Paper mode

Win Rate

43.3%

W / (W+L)

ROI

-4.0%

Settled bets

Avg Edge

+13.8%

Model vs implied

Model Configuration

AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)

Training Data2022–2025

ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation

Edge Threshold+4% minimum

Kelly Fraction50% Kelly

Bet Gate222/200 (cleared)

CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate

20-30%0% (0/1)

40-50%40% (2/5)

50-60%43% (6/14)

60-70%44% (14/32)

70-80%24% (5/21)

80-90%52% (12/23)

90-100%25% (1/4)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List

8 features · XGBoost importance ranking

Feature

Description

Importance

Starter SIERA

Skill-Interactive ERA — best predictor of future performance

High

Starter ERA (L5)

ERA over last 5 starts

High

Opponent wOBA

Opponent weighted on-base average (season)

High

Opponent wOBA (L14)

Opponent wOBA over last 14 days

Medium

Starter IP/Start

Average innings per start — durability proxy

Medium

Umpire Run Rate

Umpire tendency to allow runs vs. league avg

Medium

Park Factor (runs)

Ballpark run-scoring factor

Low

Home/Away Split

Starter ERA home vs. away differential

Low

200-Bet Gate Progress222/200

Gate Cleared

Total P&L

-11.95u

Avg Edge

+13.8%

Win Rate

43.3%

Sample Size

222

Settled bets

Full Settled History

Today's Picks →

SYSTEM

GAME

PICK

BOOK

RESULT

P&L

May 29

100STRONG

PHI @ LAD

PHI First 5 Innings MoneylinePHI First 5 Innings Moneyline

-120

+10.7%

LOSS

-1.5u

May 29

100STRONG

MIA @ NYM

MIA First 5 Innings MoneylineMIA First 5 Innings Moneyline

-105

+13.4%

LOSS

-1.5u

May 29

100STRONG

MIL @ HOU

HOU First 5 Innings MoneylineHOU First 5 Innings Moneyline

-110

+14.6%

WIN

+1.4u

May 29

100STRONG

SF @ COL

COL First 5 Innings MoneylineCOL First 5 Innings Moneyline

>hitter-friendly park (1.33x)

+132

+16.7%

LOSS

-1.5u

May 29

100STRONG

CHC @ STL

STL First 5 Innings MoneylineSTL First 5 Innings Moneyline

+112

+18.7%

WIN

+1.7u

May 29

100STRONG

TOR @ BAL

BAL First 5 Innings MoneylineBAL First 5 Innings Moneyline

-124

+24.6%

WIN

+1.2u

May 29

100STRONG

SD @ WSH

SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline

+110

+25.0%

LOSS

-1.5u

May 29

100STRONG

ATL @ CIN

CIN First 5 Innings MoneylineCIN First 5 Innings Moneyline

>hitter-friendly park (1.08x)

+105

+29.8%

LOSS

-1.5u

May 29

100STRONG

BOS @ CLE

BOS First 5 Innings MoneylineBOS First 5 Innings Moneyline

+100

+30.8%

LOSS

-1.5u

May 28

100STRONG

LAA @ DET

LAA First 5 Innings MoneylineLAA First 5 Innings Moneyline

+105

+14.7%

WIN

+1.6u

May 27

100STRONG

MIN @ CWS

CWS First 5 Innings MoneylineCWS First 5 Innings Moneyline

-105

+12.0%

WIN

+1.3u

May 27

100STRONG

PHI @ SD

SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline

+155

+14.5%

PUSH

+0.0u

May 27

100STRONG

TB @ BAL

TB First 5 Innings MoneylineTB First 5 Innings Moneyline

-115

+17.6%

LOSS

-1.4u

May 27

100STRONG

CIN @ NYM

NYM First 5 Innings MoneylineNYM First 5 Innings Moneyline

-115

+17.8%

WIN

+1.2u

May 27

100STRONG

ATL @ BOS

ATL First 5 Innings MoneylineATL First 5 Innings Moneyline

>wind blowing in

-105

+20.3%

LOSS

-1.4u

May 27

100STRONG

CHC @ PIT

PIT First 5 Innings MoneylinePIT First 5 Innings Moneyline

-118

+22.6%

PUSH

+0.0u

May 27

100STRONG

LAA @ DET

DET First 5 Innings MoneylineDET First 5 Innings Moneyline

-102

+33.1%

WIN

+1.4u

May 26

100STRONG

WSH @ CLE

CLE First 5 Innings MoneylineCLE First 5 Innings Moneyline

-115

+10.4%

LOSS

-1.4u

May 26

100STRONG

MIN @ CWS

CWS First 5 Innings MoneylineCWS First 5 Innings Moneyline

+118

+17.3%

LOSS

-1.4u

May 26

100STRONG

NYY @ KC

KC First 5 Innings MoneylineKC First 5 Innings Moneyline

+180

+18.2%

LOSS

-1.4u

May 26

100STRONG

TB @ BAL

TB First 5 Innings MoneylineTB First 5 Innings Moneyline

-118

+19.1%

LOSS

-1.4u

May 26

100STRONG

ATL @ BOS

ATL First 5 Innings MoneylineATL First 5 Innings Moneyline

>wind blowing in

-110

+20.3%

PUSH

+0.0u

May 26

100STRONG

CIN @ NYM

NYM First 5 Innings MoneylineNYM First 5 Innings Moneyline

+120

+28.5%

LOSS

-1.4u

May 26

100STRONG

LAA @ DET

DET First 5 Innings MoneylineDET First 5 Innings Moneyline

-120

+30.5%

WIN

+1.2u

May 25

100STRONG

HOU @ TEX

HOU First 5 Innings MoneylineHOU First 5 Innings Moneyline

+105

+14.4%

WIN

+1.7u

May 25

100STRONG

TB @ BAL

TB First 5 Innings MoneylineTB First 5 Innings Moneyline

-124

+17.4%

PUSH

+0.0u

May 25

100STRONG

CIN @ NYM

CIN First 5 Innings MoneylineCIN First 5 Innings Moneyline

+132

+17.4%

WIN

+2.1u

May 25

100STRONG

WSH @ CLE

WSH First 5 Innings MoneylineWSH First 5 Innings Moneyline

+140

+20.8%

WIN

+2.3u

May 25

100STRONG

MIN @ CWS

CWS First 5 Innings MoneylineCWS First 5 Innings Moneyline

+100

+23.9%

WIN

+1.6u

May 25

100STRONG

CHC @ PIT

PIT First 5 Innings MoneylinePIT First 5 Innings Moneyline

+100

+26.7%

PUSH

+0.0u

F5May 29

100STRONG

PHI @ LAD

PHI First 5 Innings MoneylinePHI First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-120

EDGE

+10.7%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.5u

F5May 29

100STRONG

MIA @ NYM

MIA First 5 Innings MoneylineMIA First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-105

EDGE

+13.4%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.5u

F5May 29

100STRONG

MIL @ HOU

HOU First 5 Innings MoneylineHOU First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-110

EDGE

+14.6%

BOOK

WIN

+1.4u

F5May 29

100STRONG

SF @ COL

COL First 5 Innings MoneylineCOL First 5 Innings Moneyline

>hitter-friendly park (1.33x)

ODDS

+132

EDGE

+16.7%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.5u

F5May 29

100STRONG

CHC @ STL

STL First 5 Innings MoneylineSTL First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+112

EDGE

+18.7%

BOOK

WIN

+1.7u

F5May 29

100STRONG

TOR @ BAL

BAL First 5 Innings MoneylineBAL First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-124

EDGE

+24.6%

BOOK

WIN

+1.2u

F5May 29

100STRONG

SD @ WSH

SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+110

EDGE

+25.0%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.5u

F5May 29

100STRONG

ATL @ CIN

CIN First 5 Innings MoneylineCIN First 5 Innings Moneyline

>hitter-friendly park (1.08x)

ODDS

+105

EDGE

+29.8%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.5u

F5May 29

100STRONG

BOS @ CLE

BOS First 5 Innings MoneylineBOS First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+100

EDGE

+30.8%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.5u

F5May 28

100STRONG

LAA @ DET

LAA First 5 Innings MoneylineLAA First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+105

EDGE

+14.7%

BOOK

WIN

+1.6u

F5May 27

100STRONG

MIN @ CWS

CWS First 5 Innings MoneylineCWS First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-105

EDGE

+12.0%

BOOK

WIN

+1.3u

F5May 27

100STRONG

PHI @ SD

SD First 5 Innings MoneylineSD First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+155

EDGE

+14.5%

BOOK

PUSH

+0.0u

F5May 27

100STRONG

TB @ BAL

TB First 5 Innings MoneylineTB First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-115

EDGE

+17.6%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.4u

F5May 27

100STRONG

CIN @ NYM

NYM First 5 Innings MoneylineNYM First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-115

EDGE

+17.8%

BOOK

WIN

+1.2u

F5May 27

100STRONG

ATL @ BOS

ATL First 5 Innings MoneylineATL First 5 Innings Moneyline

>wind blowing in

ODDS

-105

EDGE

+20.3%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.4u

F5May 27

100STRONG

CHC @ PIT

PIT First 5 Innings MoneylinePIT First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-118

EDGE

+22.6%

BOOK

PUSH

+0.0u

F5May 27

100STRONG

LAA @ DET

DET First 5 Innings MoneylineDET First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-102

EDGE

+33.1%

BOOK

WIN

+1.4u

F5May 26

100STRONG

WSH @ CLE

CLE First 5 Innings MoneylineCLE First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-115

EDGE

+10.4%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.4u

F5May 26

100STRONG

MIN @ CWS

CWS First 5 Innings MoneylineCWS First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+118

EDGE

+17.3%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.4u

F5May 26

100STRONG

NYY @ KC

KC First 5 Innings MoneylineKC First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+180

EDGE

+18.2%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.4u

F5May 26

100STRONG

TB @ BAL

TB First 5 Innings MoneylineTB First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-118

EDGE

+19.1%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.4u

F5May 26

100STRONG

ATL @ BOS

ATL First 5 Innings MoneylineATL First 5 Innings Moneyline

>wind blowing in

ODDS

-110

EDGE

+20.3%

BOOK

PUSH

+0.0u

F5May 26

100STRONG

CIN @ NYM

NYM First 5 Innings MoneylineNYM First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+120

EDGE

+28.5%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.4u

F5May 26

100STRONG

LAA @ DET

DET First 5 Innings MoneylineDET First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-120

EDGE

+30.5%

BOOK

WIN

+1.2u

F5May 25

100STRONG

HOU @ TEX

HOU First 5 Innings MoneylineHOU First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+105

EDGE

+14.4%

BOOK

WIN

+1.7u

F5May 25

100STRONG

TB @ BAL

TB First 5 Innings MoneylineTB First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

-124

EDGE

+17.4%

BOOK

PUSH

+0.0u

F5May 25

100STRONG

CIN @ NYM

CIN First 5 Innings MoneylineCIN First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+132

EDGE

+17.4%

BOOK

WIN

+2.1u

F5May 25

100STRONG

WSH @ CLE

WSH First 5 Innings MoneylineWSH First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+140

EDGE

+20.8%

BOOK

WIN

+2.3u

F5May 25

100STRONG

MIN @ CWS

CWS First 5 Innings MoneylineCWS First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+100

EDGE

+23.9%

BOOK

WIN

+1.6u

F5May 25

100STRONG

CHC @ PIT

PIT First 5 Innings MoneylinePIT First 5 Innings Moneyline

ODDS

+100

EDGE

+26.7%

BOOK

PUSH

+0.0u

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