Home Run Props
v6Predicts batter HR probability per plate appearance. Combines batter Statcast quality-of-contact metrics with opposing pitcher HR vulnerability and ballpark factors. Platoon splits applied as a multiplicative adjustment.
Read the betting guide →OOS AUC
0.630
Out-of-sample
Bets
4004
Paper mode
Win Rate
10.5%
W / (W+L)
ROI
-16.3%
Settled bets
Avg Edge
+-0.1%
Model vs implied
Model configuration
AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)
Training Data2021–2025
ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation
Edge Threshold+3% minimum
Kelly Fraction33% Kelly
Bet Gate4004/200 (cleared)
CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate
0-10%5% (1/20)
10-20%16% (9/56)
20-30%17% (4/24)
Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.
Feature List
10 features · XGBoost importance ranking
Feature
Description
Importance
Barrel Rate
Batted ball barrel rate (ideal launch angle + exit velo combo)
High
Hard Hit %
Batted ball hard-hit rate (exit velo >= 95 mph)
High
Launch Angle (avg)
Season average launch angle
High
Pitcher HR/9
Opposing pitcher HR allowed per 9 innings
High
Pitcher FB Rate
Opposing pitcher fly ball rate — more FB = more HR exposure
Medium
Park HR Factor
Ballpark HR factor (L/R split available)
Medium
Platoon Split
Batter vs. pitcher handedness HR rate adjustment
Medium
Pull %
Batter pull rate — correlates with power output
Low
ISO (season)
Isolated power (SLG - BA)
Medium
Recent Form (L14)
HR rate over last 14 days
Low
200-Bet Gate Progress4004/200
Total P&L
-162.76u
Avg Edge
+-0.1%
Win Rate
10.5%
Sample Size
4004
Settled bets
Full settled history
Today's Picks →SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Aug 18
100STRONG
HR
ATL@
MINRonald AcunaHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
+4300
imp 2%
+17.5%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 18
95STRONG
HR
LAA@
HOUJeremy PenaHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
+6500
imp 2%
+13.4%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 18
92STRONG
HR
SEA@
MILJulio RodriguezHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
+3800
imp 3%
+12.4%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 22
89STRONG
HR
ATL@MILAustin RileyHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
+9100
imp 1%
+11.8%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.7u
Aug 18
84STRONG
HR
SF@
CLEJo AdellHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
+4500
imp 2%
+10.8%
draftkings
WIN
+14.1u
Aug 18
84STRONG
HR
LAA@HOUDaulton VarshoHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
>warm conditions (95°F)
+5500
imp 2%
+10.8%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 18
83STRONG
HR
NYY@
BALHeliot RamosHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
+5000
imp 2%
+10.7%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.3u
Aug 26
76STRONG
HR
HOU@NYYJeremy PeñaHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
+750
imp 12%
+9.1%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.7u
Aug 11
75STRONG
HR
CIN@
CWSElly De La CruzHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
>above-avg HR park (1.03x)
+460
imp 18%
+8.9%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 19
74STRONG
HR
CWS@
CHCMunetaka MurakamiHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (25% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.10x HR factor)
+471
imp 18%
+8.7%
novig
LOSS
-0.8u
Aug 11
71STRONG
HR
PHI@
STLAlec BurlesonHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
>warm conditions (94°F)
+1120
imp 8%
+8.1%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 22
66STRONG
HR
CLE@
COLWilli CastroHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (6% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.25x HR factor)
+1100
imp 8%
+7.1%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 25
65STRONG
HR
BOS@
MIAGriffin ConineHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
>warm conditions (87°F)
+610
imp 14%
+7.0%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 24
61LEAN
HR
BOS@MIAWillson ContrerasHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
+576
imp 15%
+6.3%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 19
61LEAN
HR
OAK@
KCCarter JensenHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
>above-avg HR park (1.03x)
+600
imp 14%
+6.3%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 19
61LEAN
HR
DET@
PITOneil CruzHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
+413
imp 19%
+6.1%
novig
LOSS
-0.6u
Aug 26
60LEAN
HR
BOS@MIAGriffin ConineHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
>warm conditions (88°F)
+560
imp 15%
+6.0%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 26
60LEAN
HR
LAD@ATLMax MuncyHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
+380
imp 21%
+6.0%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 25
60LEAN
HR
TB@DETJunior CamineroHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (18% HR rate)
+375
imp 21%
+5.9%
thescore
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 16
60LEAN
HR
SD@CLEChase DeLauterHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
+594
imp 14%
+6.0%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 19
59LEAN
HR
TOR@TBYandy DiazHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
+575
imp 15%
+5.8%
hardrock
WIN
+2.7u
Aug 24
58LEAN
HR
CIN@SFEugenio SuarezHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
+567
imp 15%
+5.7%
novig
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 21
58LEAN
HR
SF@BOSWillson ContrerasHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
+569
imp 15%
+5.6%
draftkings
WIN
+1.9u
Aug 19
58LEAN
HR
TOR@TBYandy DíazHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
+563
imp 15%
+5.5%
draftkings
WIN
+2.5u
Aug 18
58LEAN
HR
DET@PITOneil CruzHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.08x HR factor)
+375
imp 21%
+5.5%
thescore
WIN
+0.9u
Aug 25
57LEAN
HR
TB@DETChandler SimpsonHome run prop
+4100
imp 2%
+5.4%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 26
56LEAN
HR
HOU@NYYChristian WalkerHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
+527
imp 16%
+5.2%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 26
56LEAN
HR
LAD@ATLMatt OlsonHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (16% HR rate)
+362
imp 22%
+5.3%
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
Aug 22
56LEAN
HR
ATL@MILJackson ChourioHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
+545
imp 16%
+5.1%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.3u
Aug 26
54LEAN
HR
TB@DETChandler SimpsonHome run prop
+3300
imp 3%
+4.8%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 18
100STRONG
ATL@MINRonald AcunaHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
ODDS
+4300
imp 2%
EDGE
+17.5%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 18
95STRONG
LAA@HOUJeremy PenaHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
ODDS
+6500
imp 2%
EDGE
+13.4%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 18
92STRONG
SEA@MILJulio RodriguezHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
ODDS
+3800
imp 3%
EDGE
+12.4%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 22
89STRONG
ATL@MILAustin RileyHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
ODDS
+9100
imp 1%
EDGE
+11.8%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.7u
HRAug 18
84STRONG
SF@CLEJo AdellHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
ODDS
+4500
imp 2%
EDGE
+10.8%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+14.1u
HRAug 18
84STRONG
LAA@HOUDaulton VarshoHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
·warm conditions (95°F)
ODDS
+5500
imp 2%
EDGE
+10.8%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 18
83STRONG
NYY@BALHeliot RamosHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
ODDS
+5000
imp 2%
EDGE
+10.7%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.3u
HRAug 26
76STRONG
HOU@NYYJeremy PeñaHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
ODDS
+750
imp 12%
EDGE
+9.1%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.7u
HRAug 11
75STRONG
CIN@CWSElly De La CruzHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
·above-avg HR park (1.03x)
ODDS
+460
imp 18%
EDGE
+8.9%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 19
74STRONG
CWS@CHCMunetaka MurakamiHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (25% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.10x HR factor)
ODDS
+471
imp 18%
EDGE
+8.7%
BOOK
novig
LOSS
-0.8u
HRAug 11
71STRONG
PHI@STLAlec BurlesonHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
·warm conditions (94°F)
ODDS
+1120
imp 8%
EDGE
+8.1%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 22
66STRONG
CLE@COLWilli CastroHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (6% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.25x HR factor)
ODDS
+1100
imp 8%
EDGE
+7.1%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 25
65STRONG
BOS@MIAGriffin ConineHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
·warm conditions (87°F)
ODDS
+610
imp 14%
EDGE
+7.0%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 24
61LEAN
BOS@MIAWillson ContrerasHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
ODDS
+576
imp 15%
EDGE
+6.3%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 19
61LEAN
OAK@KCCarter JensenHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
·above-avg HR park (1.03x)
ODDS
+600
imp 14%
EDGE
+6.3%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 19
61LEAN
DET@PITOneil CruzHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
ODDS
+413
imp 19%
EDGE
+6.1%
BOOK
novig
LOSS
-0.6u
HRAug 26
60LEAN
BOS@MIAGriffin ConineHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
·warm conditions (88°F)
ODDS
+560
imp 15%
EDGE
+6.0%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 26
60LEAN
LAD@ATLMax MuncyHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
ODDS
+380
imp 21%
EDGE
+6.0%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 25
60LEAN
TB@DETJunior CamineroHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (18% HR rate)
ODDS
+375
imp 21%
EDGE
+5.9%
BOOK
thescore
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 16
60LEAN
SD@CLEChase DeLauterHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
ODDS
+594
imp 14%
EDGE
+6.0%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 19
59LEAN
TOR@TBYandy DiazHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
ODDS
+575
imp 15%
EDGE
+5.8%
BOOK
hardrock
WIN
+2.7u
HRAug 24
58LEAN
CIN@SFEugenio SuarezHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
ODDS
+567
imp 15%
EDGE
+5.7%
BOOK
novig
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 21
58LEAN
SF@BOSWillson ContrerasHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
ODDS
+569
imp 15%
EDGE
+5.6%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.9u
HRAug 19
58LEAN
TOR@TBYandy DíazHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
ODDS
+563
imp 15%
EDGE
+5.5%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+2.5u
HRAug 18
58LEAN
DET@PITOneil CruzHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.08x HR factor)
ODDS
+375
imp 21%
EDGE
+5.5%
BOOK
thescore
WIN
+0.9u
HRAug 25
57LEAN
TB@DETChandler SimpsonHome run prop
ODDS
+4100
imp 2%
EDGE
+5.4%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 26
56LEAN
HOU@NYYChristian WalkerHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
ODDS
+527
imp 16%
EDGE
+5.2%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 26
56LEAN
LAD@ATLMatt OlsonHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (16% HR rate)
ODDS
+362
imp 22%
EDGE
+5.3%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
HRAug 22
56LEAN
ATL@MILJackson ChourioHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
ODDS
+545
imp 16%
EDGE
+5.1%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.3u
HRAug 26
54LEAN
TB@DETChandler SimpsonHome run prop
ODDS
+3300
imp 3%
EDGE
+4.8%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
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