Models·HR

Home Run Props

Predicts batter HR probability per plate appearance. Combines batter Statcast quality-of-contact metrics with opposing pitcher HR vulnerability and ballpark factors. Platoon splits applied as a multiplicative adjustment.

Read the betting guide →

OOS AUC

0.630

Out-of-sample

Bets

234

Paper mode

Win Rate

14.5%

W / (W+L)

ROI

+6.7%

Settled bets

Avg Edge

+8.2%

Model vs implied

Model Configuration

AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)

Training Data2021–2025

ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation

Edge Threshold+3% minimum

Kelly Fraction33% Kelly

Bet Gate234/200 (cleared)

CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate

10-20%8% (4/50)

20-30%27% (10/37)

30-40%33% (1/3)

40-50%0% (0/1)

50-60%17% (1/6)

60-70%33% (1/3)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List

10 features · XGBoost importance ranking

Feature

Description

Importance

Barrel Rate

Batted ball barrel rate (ideal launch angle + exit velo combo)

High

Hard Hit %

Batted ball hard-hit rate (exit velo >= 95 mph)

High

Launch Angle (avg)

Season average launch angle

High

Pitcher HR/9

Opposing pitcher HR allowed per 9 innings

High

Pitcher FB Rate

Opposing pitcher fly ball rate — more FB = more HR exposure

Medium

Park HR Factor

Ballpark HR factor (L/R split available)

Medium

Platoon Split

Batter vs. pitcher handedness HR rate adjustment

Medium

Pull %

Batter pull rate — correlates with power output

Low

ISO (season)

Isolated power (SLG - BA)

Medium

Recent Form (L14)

HR rate over last 14 days

Low

200-Bet Gate Progress234/200

Gate Cleared

Total P&L

+13.57u

Avg Edge

+8.2%

Win Rate

14.5%

Sample Size

234

Settled bets

Full Settled History

Today's Picks →

SYSTEM

GAME

PICK

BOOK

RESULT

P&L

May 27

100STRONG

ARI @ SF

Bryce EldridgeHome run prop

>wind 13 mph

+4000

+10.0%

LOSS

-2.3u

May 26

100STRONG

HOU @ TEX

Brice MatthewsHome run prop

>strong vs RHP (23% HR rate)

>hitter-friendly park (1.08x HR factor)

+880

+10.5%

LOSS

-1.0u

May 25

100STRONG

COL @ LAD

Enrique HernándezHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (6% HR rate)

+599

+10.0%

LOSS

-2.7u

May 25

100STRONG

CIN @ NYM

Bo BichetteHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)

+2200

+11.7%

LOSS

-2.7u

May 25

100STRONG

NYY @ KC

Aaron JudgeHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (19% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (23% HR rate)

+7000

+26.6%

LOSS

-2.7u

May 24

100STRONG

OAK @ SD

Nick KurtzHome run prop

+1100

+14.1%

LOSS

-0.2u

May 23

100STRONG

WSH @ ATL

Matt OlsonHome run prop

+900

+13.8%

LOSS

-2.7u

May 23

100STRONG

CWS @ SF

Colson MontgomeryHome run prop

+1500

+14.0%

LOSS

-2.7u

May 21

100STRONG

NYM @ WSH

Bo BichetteHome run prop

+3300

+14.1%

LOSS

-2.7u

May 21

100STRONG

TOR @ NYY

Kazuma OkamotoHome run prop

+492

+22.6%

LOSS

-1.4u

May 20

100STRONG

TEX @ COL

Kyle HigashiokaHome run prop

+10000

+10.3%

LOSS

-0.8u

May 20

100STRONG

SF @ ARI

Adrian Del CastilloHome run prop

+7500

+10.9%

LOSS

-4.5u

May 20

100STRONG

CWS @ SEA

Julio RodríguezHome run prop

+1600

+16.1%

LOSS

-1.6u

May 20

100STRONG

TOR @ NYY

Kazuma OkamotoHome run prop

+490

+18.9%

LOSS

-4.5u

May 19

100STRONG

SF @ ARI

Adrian Del CastilloHome run prop

+920

+43.9%

LOSS

-4.9u

May 19

100STRONG

CIN @ PHI

Blake DunnHome run prop

+1280

+37.0%

LOSS

-4.9u

May 19

100STRONG

BOS @ KC

Bobby Witt Jr.Home run prop

+650

+40.2%

LOSS

-4.9u

May 19

100STRONG

BAL @ TB

Coby MayoHome run prop

+710

+41.6%

LOSS

-0.0u

May 19

100STRONG

CLE @ DET

Chase DeLauterHome run prop

+540

+41.9%

LOSS

-0.0u

May 19

100STRONG

PIT @ STL

Alec BurlesonHome run prop

+610

+43.1%

WIN

+29.6u

May 19

100STRONG

TEX @ COL

Mickey MoniakHome run prop

+400

+44.3%

LOSS

-0.0u

May 19

100STRONG

HOU @ MIN

Austin MartinHome run prop

+1700

+44.8%

LOSS

-4.9u

May 19

100STRONG

CWS @ SEA

Julio RodríguezHome run prop

+470

+49.1%

LOSS

-4.9u

May 19

100STRONG

NYM @ WSH

Bo BichetteHome run prop

+610

+49.8%

WIN

+29.6u

May 28

97STRONG

MIN @ CWS

Byron BuxtonHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (12% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (19% HR rate)

+650

+9.5%

LOSS

-2.5u

May 29

94STRONG

MIA @ NYM

Bo BichetteHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)

+820

+9.0%

LOSS

-2.5u

May 27

94STRONG

PHI @ SD

Bryce HarperHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)

+2700

+9.0%

LOSS

-2.2u

May 24

91STRONG

TB @ NYY

Aaron JudgeHome run prop

+292

+8.5%

WIN

+6.7u

May 24

90STRONG

COL @ ARI

Ezequiel TovarHome run prop

+3000

+8.3%

LOSS

-2.0u

May 27

88STRONG

ATL @ BOS

Michael Harris IIHome run prop

>strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)

>wind blowing in

+575

+8.1%

LOSS

-2.2u

HRMay 27

100STRONG

ARI @ SF

Bryce EldridgeHome run prop

>wind 13 mph

ODDS

+4000

EDGE

+10.0%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.3u

HRMay 26

100STRONG

HOU @ TEX

Brice MatthewsHome run prop

>strong vs RHP (23% HR rate)

>hitter-friendly park (1.08x HR factor)

ODDS

+880

EDGE

+10.5%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.0u

HRMay 25

100STRONG

COL @ LAD

Enrique HernándezHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (6% HR rate)

ODDS

+599

EDGE

+10.0%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.7u

HRMay 25

100STRONG

CIN @ NYM

Bo BichetteHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)

ODDS

+2200

EDGE

+11.7%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.7u

HRMay 25

100STRONG

NYY @ KC

Aaron JudgeHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (19% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (23% HR rate)

ODDS

+7000

EDGE

+26.6%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.7u

HRMay 24

100STRONG

OAK @ SD

Nick KurtzHome run prop

ODDS

+1100

EDGE

+14.1%

BOOK

LOSS

-0.2u

HRMay 23

100STRONG

WSH @ ATL

Matt OlsonHome run prop

ODDS

+900

EDGE

+13.8%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.7u

HRMay 23

100STRONG

CWS @ SF

Colson MontgomeryHome run prop

ODDS

+1500

EDGE

+14.0%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.7u

HRMay 21

100STRONG

NYM @ WSH

Bo BichetteHome run prop

ODDS

+3300

EDGE

+14.1%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.7u

HRMay 21

100STRONG

TOR @ NYY

Kazuma OkamotoHome run prop

ODDS

+492

EDGE

+22.6%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.4u

HRMay 20

100STRONG

TEX @ COL

Kyle HigashiokaHome run prop

ODDS

+10000

EDGE

+10.3%

BOOK

LOSS

-0.8u

HRMay 20

100STRONG

SF @ ARI

Adrian Del CastilloHome run prop

ODDS

+7500

EDGE

+10.9%

BOOK

LOSS

-4.5u

HRMay 20

100STRONG

CWS @ SEA

Julio RodríguezHome run prop

ODDS

+1600

EDGE

+16.1%

BOOK

LOSS

-1.6u

HRMay 20

100STRONG

TOR @ NYY

Kazuma OkamotoHome run prop

ODDS

+490

EDGE

+18.9%

BOOK

LOSS

-4.5u

HRMay 19

100STRONG

SF @ ARI

Adrian Del CastilloHome run prop

ODDS

+920

EDGE

+43.9%

BOOK

LOSS

-4.9u

HRMay 19

100STRONG

CIN @ PHI

Blake DunnHome run prop

ODDS

+1280

EDGE

+37.0%

BOOK

LOSS

-4.9u

HRMay 19

100STRONG

BOS @ KC

Bobby Witt Jr.Home run prop

ODDS

+650

EDGE

+40.2%

BOOK

LOSS

-4.9u

HRMay 19

100STRONG

BAL @ TB

Coby MayoHome run prop

ODDS

+710

EDGE

+41.6%

BOOK

LOSS

-0.0u

HRMay 19

100STRONG

CLE @ DET

Chase DeLauterHome run prop

ODDS

+540

EDGE

+41.9%

BOOK

LOSS

-0.0u

HRMay 19

100STRONG

PIT @ STL

Alec BurlesonHome run prop

ODDS

+610

EDGE

+43.1%

BOOK

WIN

+29.6u

HRMay 19

100STRONG

TEX @ COL

Mickey MoniakHome run prop

ODDS

+400

EDGE

+44.3%

BOOK

LOSS

-0.0u

HRMay 19

100STRONG

HOU @ MIN

Austin MartinHome run prop

ODDS

+1700

EDGE

+44.8%

BOOK

LOSS

-4.9u

HRMay 19

100STRONG

CWS @ SEA

Julio RodríguezHome run prop

ODDS

+470

EDGE

+49.1%

BOOK

LOSS

-4.9u

HRMay 19

100STRONG

NYM @ WSH

Bo BichetteHome run prop

ODDS

+610

EDGE

+49.8%

BOOK

WIN

+29.6u

HRMay 28

97STRONG

MIN @ CWS

Byron BuxtonHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (12% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (19% HR rate)

ODDS

+650

EDGE

+9.5%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.5u

HRMay 29

94STRONG

MIA @ NYM

Bo BichetteHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)

ODDS

+820

EDGE

+9.0%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.5u

HRMay 27

94STRONG

PHI @ SD

Bryce HarperHome run prop

>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)

>strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)

ODDS

+2700

EDGE

+9.0%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.2u

HRMay 24

91STRONG

TB @ NYY

Aaron JudgeHome run prop

ODDS

+292

EDGE

+8.5%

BOOK

WIN

+6.7u

HRMay 24

90STRONG

COL @ ARI

Ezequiel TovarHome run prop

ODDS

+3000

EDGE

+8.3%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.0u

HRMay 27

88STRONG

ATL @ BOS

Michael Harris IIHome run prop

>strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)

>wind blowing in

ODDS

+575

EDGE

+8.1%

BOOK

LOSS

-2.2u

1-30 of 100