Home Run Props
v6Predicts batter HR probability per plate appearance. Combines batter Statcast quality-of-contact metrics with opposing pitcher HR vulnerability and ballpark factors. Platoon splits applied as a multiplicative adjustment.
Read the betting guide →OOS AUC
0.630
Out-of-sample
Bets
801
Paper mode
Win Rate
13.2%
W / (W+L)
ROI
-18.2%
Settled bets
Avg Edge
+5.2%
Model vs implied
Model configuration
AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)
Training Data2021–2025
ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation
Edge Threshold+3% minimum
Kelly Fraction33% Kelly
Bet Gate801/200 (cleared)
CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate
0-10%0% (0/4)
10-20%11% (6/55)
20-30%12% (5/41)
Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.
Feature List
10 features · XGBoost importance ranking
Feature
Description
Importance
Barrel Rate
Batted ball barrel rate (ideal launch angle + exit velo combo)
High
Hard Hit %
Batted ball hard-hit rate (exit velo >= 95 mph)
High
Launch Angle (avg)
Season average launch angle
High
Pitcher HR/9
Opposing pitcher HR allowed per 9 innings
High
Pitcher FB Rate
Opposing pitcher fly ball rate — more FB = more HR exposure
Medium
Park HR Factor
Ballpark HR factor (L/R split available)
Medium
Platoon Split
Batter vs. pitcher handedness HR rate adjustment
Medium
Pull %
Batter pull rate — correlates with power output
Low
ISO (season)
Isolated power (SLG - BA)
Medium
Recent Form (L14)
HR rate over last 14 days
Low
200-Bet Gate Progress801/200
Total P&L
-172.88u
Avg Edge
+5.2%
Win Rate
13.2%
Sample Size
801
Settled bets
Full settled history
Today's Picks →SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Jun 14
100STRONG
HR
COL@
OAKNick KurtzHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (21% HR rate)
+1200
imp 8%
+18.4%
--
LOSS
-1.5u
Jun 13
100STRONG
HR
ARI@
CINJJ BledayHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.15x HR factor)
+1400
imp 7%
+19.4%
--
LOSS
-3.7u
Jun 13
100STRONG
HR
LAD@
CWSColson MontgomeryHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (22% HR rate)
+1400
imp 7%
+19.4%
--
LOSS
-3.7u
Jun 17
93STRONG
HR
TB@LADJonathan ArandaHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
>above-avg HR park (1.05x)
+4500
imp 2%
+12.7%
--
LOSS
-1.5u
Jul 3
86STRONG
HR
STL@
CHCMichael ConfortoHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.10x HR factor)
+545
imp 16%
+11.2%
novig
LOSS
-1.7u
Jun 15
84STRONG
HR
LAA@ARICorbin CarrollHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (6% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
+529
imp 16%
+10.8%
--
LOSS
-1.8u
Jun 16
83STRONG
HR
NYM@CINSpencer SteerHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.15x HR factor)
+520
imp 16%
+10.6%
--
VOID
+0.0u
Jun 17
80STRONG
HR
LAA@ARIJo AdellHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
+2200
imp 4%
+9.9%
--
LOSS
-1.5u
Jun 13
80STRONG
HR
SD@
BALJackson HollidayHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
>warm conditions (88°F)
+2200
imp 4%
+9.9%
--
LOSS
-3.7u
Jun 13
80STRONG
HR
ATL@NYMBo BichetteHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
+2200
imp 4%
+9.9%
--
LOSS
-3.7u
Jun 17
79STRONG
HR
BAL@
SEAJulio RodríguezHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
+492
imp 17%
+9.8%
--
LOSS
-1.5u
Jun 21
78STRONG
HR
BOS@SEAJarren DuranHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
>wind 19 mph
+2000
imp 5%
+9.5%
--
LOSS
-0.9u
Jun 13
77STRONG
HR
SEA@
WSHDylan CrewsHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
>above-avg HR park (1.03x)
+1900
imp 5%
+9.3%
--
LOSS
-2.8u
Jun 13
75STRONG
HR
MIA@
PITBryan ReynoldsHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
>warm conditions (81°F)
+1800
imp 5%
+9.0%
--
LOSS
-3.5u
Jun 13
74STRONG
HR
DET@
CLERhys HoskinsHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
+1700
imp 6%
+8.8%
--
LOSS
-3.1u
Jun 17
73STRONG
HR
CWS@
NYYColson MontgomeryHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (6% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (23% HR rate)
+451
imp 18%
+8.7%
--
WIN
+6.7u
Jul 6
72STRONG
HR
TOR@
SFRafael DeversHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.25x HR factor)
+440
imp 19%
+8.3%
fanduel
LOSS
-3.2u
Jun 13
71STRONG
HR
TEX@BOSJosh JungHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
+1500
imp 6%
+8.1%
--
LOSS
-2.5u
Jun 14
69STRONG
HR
TB@LAACedric MullinsHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
+1400
imp 7%
+7.7%
--
LOSS
-1.2u
Jun 14
69STRONG
HR
PHI@
MILGarrett MitchellHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (9% HR rate)
>above-avg HR park (1.04x)
+1400
imp 7%
+7.7%
--
LOSS
-1.1u
Jul 7
67STRONG
HR
ATL@PITBryan ReynoldsHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
>above-avg HR park (1.03x)
+625
imp 14%
+7.4%
betmgm
LOSS
-2.0u
Jul 2
65STRONG
HR
PIT@WSHBrandon LoweHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
+400
imp 20%
+7.0%
novig
LOSS
-1.4u
Jun 26
65STRONG
HR
ARI@TBCorbin CarrollHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (6% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
+400
imp 20%
+7.0%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.0u
Jun 17
65STRONG
HR
DET@
HOUChristian WalkerHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
+400
imp 20%
+7.0%
--
LOSS
-1.3u
Jun 21
64LEAN
HR
PIT@COLBrandon LoweHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
+1200
imp 8%
+6.8%
--
LOSS
-0.8u
Jun 16
64LEAN
HR
LAA@ARICorbin CarrollHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (6% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
+549
imp 15%
+6.8%
--
LOSS
-1.5u
Jul 3
63LEAN
HR
PIT@WSHBrandon LoweHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
+390
imp 20%
+6.6%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
Jun 17
63LEAN
HR
SF@ATLMatt OlsonHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (16% HR rate)
+390
imp 20%
+6.6%
--
LOSS
-1.2u
Jun 15
63LEAN
HR
KC@WSHCJ AbramsHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
>above-avg HR park (1.03x)
+540
imp 16%
+6.6%
--
LOSS
-1.4u
Jun 16
61LEAN
HR
SD@STLJordan WalkerHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
+520
imp 16%
+6.1%
--
LOSS
-1.4u
HRJun 14
100STRONG
COL@OAKNick KurtzHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (21% HR rate)
ODDS
+1200
imp 8%
EDGE
+18.4%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.5u
HRJun 13
100STRONG
ARI@CINJJ BledayHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.15x HR factor)
ODDS
+1400
imp 7%
EDGE
+19.4%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-3.7u
HRJun 13
100STRONG
LAD@CWSColson MontgomeryHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (22% HR rate)
ODDS
+1400
imp 7%
EDGE
+19.4%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-3.7u
HRJun 17
93STRONG
TB@LADJonathan ArandaHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
·above-avg HR park (1.05x)
ODDS
+4500
imp 2%
EDGE
+12.7%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.5u
HRJul 3
86STRONG
STL@CHCMichael ConfortoHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.10x HR factor)
ODDS
+545
imp 16%
EDGE
+11.2%
BOOK
novig
LOSS
-1.7u
HRJun 15
84STRONG
LAA@ARICorbin CarrollHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (6% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
ODDS
+529
imp 16%
EDGE
+10.8%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.8u
HRJun 16
83STRONG
NYM@CINSpencer SteerHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.15x HR factor)
ODDS
+520
imp 16%
EDGE
+10.6%
BOOK
--
VOID
+0.0u
HRJun 17
80STRONG
LAA@ARIJo AdellHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
ODDS
+2200
imp 4%
EDGE
+9.9%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.5u
HRJun 13
80STRONG
SD@BALJackson HollidayHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
·warm conditions (88°F)
ODDS
+2200
imp 4%
EDGE
+9.9%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-3.7u
HRJun 13
80STRONG
ATL@NYMBo BichetteHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
ODDS
+2200
imp 4%
EDGE
+9.9%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-3.7u
HRJun 17
79STRONG
BAL@SEAJulio RodríguezHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
ODDS
+492
imp 17%
EDGE
+9.8%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.5u
HRJun 21
78STRONG
BOS@SEAJarren DuranHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
·wind 19 mph
ODDS
+2000
imp 5%
EDGE
+9.5%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-0.9u
HRJun 13
77STRONG
SEA@WSHDylan CrewsHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
·above-avg HR park (1.03x)
ODDS
+1900
imp 5%
EDGE
+9.3%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-2.8u
HRJun 13
75STRONG
MIA@PITBryan ReynoldsHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
·warm conditions (81°F)
ODDS
+1800
imp 5%
EDGE
+9.0%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-3.5u
HRJun 13
74STRONG
DET@CLERhys HoskinsHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
ODDS
+1700
imp 6%
EDGE
+8.8%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-3.1u
HRJun 17
73STRONG
CWS@NYYColson MontgomeryHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (6% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (23% HR rate)
ODDS
+451
imp 18%
EDGE
+8.7%
BOOK
--
WIN
+6.7u
HRJul 6
72STRONG
TOR@SFRafael DeversHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.25x HR factor)
ODDS
+440
imp 19%
EDGE
+8.3%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-3.2u
HRJun 13
71STRONG
TEX@BOSJosh JungHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
ODDS
+1500
imp 6%
EDGE
+8.1%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-2.5u
HRJun 14
69STRONG
TB@LAACedric MullinsHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
ODDS
+1400
imp 7%
EDGE
+7.7%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.2u
HRJun 14
69STRONG
PHI@MILGarrett MitchellHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (9% HR rate)
·above-avg HR park (1.04x)
ODDS
+1400
imp 7%
EDGE
+7.7%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.1u
HRJul 7
67STRONG
ATL@PITBryan ReynoldsHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
·above-avg HR park (1.03x)
ODDS
+625
imp 14%
EDGE
+7.4%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-2.0u
HRJul 2
65STRONG
PIT@WSHBrandon LoweHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
ODDS
+400
imp 20%
EDGE
+7.0%
BOOK
novig
LOSS
-1.4u
HRJun 26
65STRONG
ARI@TBCorbin CarrollHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (6% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
ODDS
+400
imp 20%
EDGE
+7.0%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.0u
HRJun 17
65STRONG
DET@HOUChristian WalkerHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
ODDS
+400
imp 20%
EDGE
+7.0%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.3u
HRJun 21
64LEAN
PIT@COLBrandon LoweHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
ODDS
+1200
imp 8%
EDGE
+6.8%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-0.8u
HRJun 16
64LEAN
LAA@ARICorbin CarrollHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (6% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
ODDS
+549
imp 15%
EDGE
+6.8%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.5u
HRJul 3
63LEAN
PIT@WSHBrandon LoweHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
ODDS
+390
imp 20%
EDGE
+6.6%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
HRJun 17
63LEAN
SF@ATLMatt OlsonHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (16% HR rate)
ODDS
+390
imp 20%
EDGE
+6.6%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.2u
HRJun 15
63LEAN
KC@WSHCJ AbramsHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
·above-avg HR park (1.03x)
ODDS
+540
imp 16%
EDGE
+6.6%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.4u
HRJun 16
61LEAN
SD@STLJordan WalkerHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
ODDS
+520
imp 16%
EDGE
+6.1%
BOOK
--
LOSS
-1.4u
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