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W1I·KC @ BAL+0.56u|L1I·COL @ SF-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Mariners @ Rays+0.38u|L1I·SEA @ TB-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals+0.41u|L1I·PHI @ DET-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Phillies @ Tigers+0.73u|LBATTER_TB·Astros @ Rangers-0.65u|WBATTER_TB·Royals @ Orioles+0.24u|LBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals-0.39u|W1I·KC @ BAL+0.56u|L1I·COL @ SF-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Mariners @ Rays+0.38u|L1I·SEA @ TB-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals+0.41u|L1I·PHI @ DET-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Phillies @ Tigers+0.73u|LBATTER_TB·Astros @ Rangers-0.65u|WBATTER_TB·Royals @ Orioles+0.24u|LBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals-0.39u|
The Edge
Models·Outs

Outs Props

v1

Projects outs recorded by a starter via Normal IP simulation (proxy model derived from K system features). Not a separately trained model.

Model
Proxy
Out-of-sample
Bets
1071
Paper mode
Win Rate
50.7%
W / (W+L)
ROI
+5.0%
Settled bets
Avg Edge
+5.6%
Model vs implied
Model configuration
AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)
Training Data2021–2025
ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation
Edge Threshold+4% minimum
Kelly Fraction40% Kelly
Bet Gate1071/200 (cleared)
CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate
40-50%50% (3/6)
50-60%46% (39/85)
60-70%44% (4/9)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List
8 features · XGBoost importance ranking
Feature
Description
Importance
Pitch Efficiency
Pitches per out (season) — lower = deeper into games
High
IP/Start (season)
Average innings per start
High
IP/Start (L5)
Innings per start over last 5
High
Bullpen Availability
Bullpen rest score — tired bullpen = longer starter
Medium
Opponent OBP
Opponent on-base percentage (season)
Medium
Opponent OBP (L14)
Opponent OBP over last 14 days
Medium
Win Probability Context
Expected leverage — blowouts = shorter starts
Low
Home/Away Split
IP/Start differential home vs. away
Low
200-Bet Gate Progress1071/200
Gate Cleared
Total P&L
+37.03u
Avg Edge
+5.6%
Win Rate
50.7%
Sample Size
1071
Settled bets

Full settled history

Today's Picks →
SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Jul 12
100STRONG
Outs
SEA@TB
Ian SeymourOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+145
imp 41%
+14.9%
betmgm
LOSS
-1.0u
Jul 12
100STRONG
Outs
HOU@TEX
MacKenzie GoreOver 14.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (7 days rest)
-115
imp 53%
+15.1%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.0u
Jul 12
100STRONG
Outs
PHI@DET
Zack WheelerUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.8 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+145
imp 41%
+15.4%
caesars
LOSS
-1.0u
Jul 12
100STRONG
Outs
ARI@LAD
Emmet SheehanOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>deep into games recently (6.1 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (21 days rest)
+110
imp 48%
+18.8%
betmgm
WIN
+1.1u
Jul 11
100STRONG
Outs
MIL@PIT
Braxton AshcraftOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.7 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+108
imp 48%
+14.9%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.5u
Jul 11
100STRONG
Outs
LAA@MIN
Joe RyanUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.8 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (11 days rest)
+156
imp 39%
+17.9%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.5u
Jul 10
100STRONG
Outs
ARI@LAD
Shohei OhtaniOver 18.5 Outs Recorded
>deep into games recently (6.2 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (16 days rest)
+150
imp 40%
+16.0%
caesars
VOID
+0.0u
Jul 10
100STRONG
Outs
BOS@NYM
Nolan McLeanUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.4 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (11 days rest)
+150
imp 40%
+16.4%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.0u
Jul 9
100STRONG
Outs
OAK@DET
Framber ValdezUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.8 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+148
imp 40%
+15.5%
thescore
LOSS
-1.6u
Jul 7
100STRONG
Outs
CLE@MIN
Taj BradleyOver 16.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.6 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (5 days rest)
-105
imp 51%
+16.4%
betmgm
WIN
+2.2u
Jul 4
100STRONG
Outs
TOR@SEA
Logan GilbertUnder 21.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.7 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (25 days rest)
-115
imp 53%
+15.1%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.9u
Jul 4
100STRONG
Outs
MIN@NYY
Zebby MatthewsOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>deep into games recently (6.3 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+106
imp 49%
+19.3%
draftkings
LOSS
-2.9u
Jul 1
100STRONG
Outs
LAD@OAK
J.T. GinnOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.9 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+107
imp 48%
+19.8%
caesars
WIN
+0.6u
Jul 10
98STRONG
Outs
MIL@PIT
Brandon SproatOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.3 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (13 days rest)
+130
imp 43%
+14.2%
thescore
LOSS
-2.4u
Jul 4
97STRONG
Outs
CWS@CLE
Parker MessickUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.7 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (11 days rest)
+138
imp 42%
+13.9%
thescore
WIN
+3.9u
Jul 2
97STRONG
Outs
DET@TEX
Framber ValdezUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (11 days rest)
+145
imp 41%
+14.1%
fanduel
WIN
+0.0u
Jul 2
97STRONG
Outs
TB@KC
Ian SeymourOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.0 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (6 days rest)
+138
imp 42%
+13.9%
caesars
WIN
+0.8u
Jul 7
95STRONG
Outs
SEA@MIA
Bryan WooUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.9 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (19 days rest)
+129
imp 44%
+13.2%
draftkings
WIN
+2.9u
Jul 7
95STRONG
Outs
ATL@PIT
Paul SkenesUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (11 days rest)
+138
imp 42%
+13.3%
betmgm
LOSS
-2.3u
Jul 10
94STRONG
Outs
COL@SF
Robbie RayUnder 18.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+110
imp 48%
+12.8%
fanduel
WIN
+2.6u
Jul 8
92STRONG
Outs
NYY@TB
Shane McClanahanOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>well-rested (11 days rest)
+128
imp 44%
+12.4%
fanduel
WIN
+2.7u
Jul 1
92STRONG
Outs
SF@ARI
Trevor McDonaldOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>deep into games recently (6.1 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (30 days rest)
+122
imp 45%
+12.3%
caesars
WIN
+0.0u
Jul 12
91STRONG
Outs
TOR@SD
Kevin GausmanUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+130
imp 43%
+12.2%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.0u
Jul 1
90STRONG
Outs
SD@CHC
Walker BuehlerUnder 14.5 Outs Recorded
>well-rested (47 days rest)
+130
imp 43%
+11.9%
draftkings
WIN
+1.5u
Jul 12
89STRONG
Outs
MIL@PIT
Paul SkenesUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.6 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (17 days rest)
+130
imp 43%
+11.7%
draftkings
WIN
+1.3u
Jul 9
89STRONG
Outs
KC@NYM
Sean ManaeaUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded
>well-rested (270 days rest)
-122
imp 55%
+12.9%
caesars
LOSS
-3.1u
Jul 1
89STRONG
Outs
TB@KC
Shane McClanahanOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>well-rested (11 days rest)
+128
imp 44%
+11.8%
fanduel
WIN
+1.5u
Jul 8
87STRONG
Outs
LAA@TEX
MacKenzie GoreUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.6 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (11 days rest)
+125
imp 44%
+11.5%
draftkings
WIN
+2.6u
Jul 9
85STRONG
Outs
ATL@PIT
Bryce ElderOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
>deep into games recently (6.1 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (7 days rest)
+122
imp 45%
+10.9%
fanduel
LOSS
-3.1u
Jul 6
84STRONG
Outs
TOR@SF
Kevin GausmanUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
>solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)
>well-rested (5 days rest)
+119
imp 46%
+10.9%
caesars
WIN
+3.8u
OutsJul 12
100STRONG
SEA@TB
Ian SeymourOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+145
imp 41%
EDGE
+14.9%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-1.0u
OutsJul 12
100STRONG
HOU@TEX
MacKenzie GoreOver 14.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (7 days rest)
ODDS
-115
imp 53%
EDGE
+15.1%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.0u
OutsJul 12
100STRONG
PHI@DET
Zack WheelerUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.8 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+145
imp 41%
EDGE
+15.4%
BOOK
caesars
LOSS
-1.0u
OutsJul 12
100STRONG
ARI@LAD
Emmet SheehanOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·deep into games recently (6.1 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (21 days rest)
ODDS
+110
imp 48%
EDGE
+18.8%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+1.1u
OutsJul 11
100STRONG
MIL@PIT
Braxton AshcraftOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.7 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+108
imp 48%
EDGE
+14.9%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.5u
OutsJul 11
100STRONG
LAA@MIN
Joe RyanUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.8 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
+156
imp 39%
EDGE
+17.9%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.5u
OutsJul 10
100STRONG
ARI@LAD
Shohei OhtaniOver 18.5 Outs Recorded
·deep into games recently (6.2 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (16 days rest)
ODDS
+150
imp 40%
EDGE
+16.0%
BOOK
caesars
VOID
+0.0u
OutsJul 10
100STRONG
BOS@NYM
Nolan McLeanUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.4 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
+150
imp 40%
EDGE
+16.4%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.0u
OutsJul 9
100STRONG
OAK@DET
Framber ValdezUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.8 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+148
imp 40%
EDGE
+15.5%
BOOK
thescore
LOSS
-1.6u
OutsJul 7
100STRONG
CLE@MIN
Taj BradleyOver 16.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.6 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
-105
imp 51%
EDGE
+16.4%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+2.2u
OutsJul 4
100STRONG
TOR@SEA
Logan GilbertUnder 21.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.7 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (25 days rest)
ODDS
-115
imp 53%
EDGE
+15.1%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.9u
OutsJul 4
100STRONG
MIN@NYY
Zebby MatthewsOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·deep into games recently (6.3 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+106
imp 49%
EDGE
+19.3%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-2.9u
OutsJul 1
100STRONG
LAD@OAK
J.T. GinnOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.9 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+107
imp 48%
EDGE
+19.8%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+0.6u
OutsJul 10
98STRONG
MIL@PIT
Brandon SproatOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.3 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (13 days rest)
ODDS
+130
imp 43%
EDGE
+14.2%
BOOK
thescore
LOSS
-2.4u
OutsJul 4
97STRONG
CWS@CLE
Parker MessickUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.7 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
+138
imp 42%
EDGE
+13.9%
BOOK
thescore
WIN
+3.9u
OutsJul 2
97STRONG
DET@TEX
Framber ValdezUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
+145
imp 41%
EDGE
+14.1%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+0.0u
OutsJul 2
97STRONG
TB@KC
Ian SeymourOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.0 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (6 days rest)
ODDS
+138
imp 42%
EDGE
+13.9%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+0.8u
OutsJul 7
95STRONG
SEA@MIA
Bryan WooUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.9 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (19 days rest)
ODDS
+129
imp 44%
EDGE
+13.2%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+2.9u
OutsJul 7
95STRONG
ATL@PIT
Paul SkenesUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
+138
imp 42%
EDGE
+13.3%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-2.3u
OutsJul 10
94STRONG
COL@SF
Robbie RayUnder 18.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+110
imp 48%
EDGE
+12.8%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+2.6u
OutsJul 8
92STRONG
NYY@TB
Shane McClanahanOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
+128
imp 44%
EDGE
+12.4%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+2.7u
OutsJul 1
92STRONG
SF@ARI
Trevor McDonaldOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·deep into games recently (6.1 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (30 days rest)
ODDS
+122
imp 45%
EDGE
+12.3%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+0.0u
OutsJul 12
91STRONG
TOR@SD
Kevin GausmanUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+130
imp 43%
EDGE
+12.2%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.0u
OutsJul 1
90STRONG
SD@CHC
Walker BuehlerUnder 14.5 Outs Recorded
·well-rested (47 days rest)
ODDS
+130
imp 43%
EDGE
+11.9%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.5u
OutsJul 12
89STRONG
MIL@PIT
Paul SkenesUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.6 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (17 days rest)
ODDS
+130
imp 43%
EDGE
+11.7%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.3u
OutsJul 9
89STRONG
KC@NYM
Sean ManaeaUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded
·well-rested (270 days rest)
ODDS
-122
imp 55%
EDGE
+12.9%
BOOK
caesars
LOSS
-3.1u
OutsJul 1
89STRONG
TB@KC
Shane McClanahanOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
+128
imp 44%
EDGE
+11.8%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+1.5u
OutsJul 8
87STRONG
LAA@TEX
MacKenzie GoreUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.6 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (11 days rest)
ODDS
+125
imp 44%
EDGE
+11.5%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+2.6u
OutsJul 9
85STRONG
ATL@PIT
Bryce ElderOver 15.5 Outs Recorded
·deep into games recently (6.1 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (7 days rest)
ODDS
+122
imp 45%
EDGE
+10.9%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-3.1u
OutsJul 6
84STRONG
TOR@SF
Kevin GausmanUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded
·solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)
·well-rested (5 days rest)
ODDS
+119
imp 46%
EDGE
+10.9%
BOOK
caesars
WIN
+3.8u
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