Models·OUTS

Outs Props

Projects outs recorded by a starter via Normal IP simulation (proxy model derived from K system features). Not a separately trained model.

Model

Proxy

Out-of-sample

Bets

287

Paper mode

Win Rate

51.6%

W / (W+L)

ROI

+8.6%

Settled bets

Avg Edge

+9.3%

Model vs implied

Model Configuration

AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)

Training Data2021–2025

ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation

Edge Threshold+4% minimum

Kelly Fraction40% Kelly

Bet Gate287/200 (cleared)

CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate

40-50%22% (2/9)

50-60%52% (23/44)

60-70%51% (20/39)

70-80%43% (3/7)

90-100%0% (0/1)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List

8 features · XGBoost importance ranking

Feature

Description

Importance

Pitch Efficiency

Pitches per out (season) — lower = deeper into games

High

IP/Start (season)

Average innings per start

High

IP/Start (L5)

Innings per start over last 5

High

Bullpen Availability

Bullpen rest score — tired bullpen = longer starter

Medium

Opponent OBP

Opponent on-base percentage (season)

Medium

Opponent OBP (L14)

Opponent OBP over last 14 days

Medium

Win Probability Context

Expected leverage — blowouts = shorter starts

Low

Home/Away Split

IP/Start differential home vs. away

Low

200-Bet Gate Progress287/200

Gate Cleared

Total P&L

+21.32u

Avg Edge

+9.3%

Win Rate

51.6%

Sample Size

287

Settled bets

Full Settled History

Today's Picks →

SYSTEM

GAME

PICK

BOOK

RESULT

P&L

May 29

100STRONG

Outs

BOS @ CLE

Slade CecconiUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (5 days rest)

+108

+11.7%

betmgm

WIN

+0.6u

May 29

100STRONG

Outs

SF @ COL

Michael LorenzenOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.3 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (17 days rest)

+116

+13.0%

draftkings

LOSS

-0.8u

May 29

100STRONG

Outs

KC @ TEX

Stephen KolekUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>deep into games recently (6.0 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (11 days rest)

+112

+13.6%

fanduel

WIN

+0.9u

May 28

100STRONG

Outs

TOR @ BAL

Chris BassittUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.0 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (22 days rest)

+106

+16.3%

betmgm

LOSS

-0.7u

May 27

100STRONG

Outs

COL @ LAD

Tomoyuki SuganoOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.3 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (18 days rest)

+129

+10.4%

draftkings

LOSS

-0.9u

May 27

100STRONG

Outs

MIN @ CWS

Connor PrielippOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (5 days rest)

+130

+18.1%

betmgm

LOSS

-0.9u

May 27

100STRONG

Outs

MIA @ TOR

Kevin GausmanUnder 18.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (11 days rest)

+135

+18.2%

caesars

WIN

+1.7u

May 26

100STRONG

Outs

PHI @ SD

Randy VásquezOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.7 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (16 days rest)

+118

+16.7%

fanduel

WIN

+0.0u

May 25

100STRONG

Outs

PHI @ SD

Randy VásquezOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

-114

+10.0%

caesars

VOID

+0.0u

May 25

100STRONG

Outs

ARI @ SF

Landen RouppUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

-110

+10.0%

fanduel

WIN

+0.0u

May 25

100STRONG

Outs

CHC @ PIT

Carmen MlodzinskiOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

+111

+14.4%

caesars

LOSS

+0.0u

May 25

100STRONG

Outs

CIN @ NYM

Nolan McLeanUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

+150

+20.1%

betmgm

WIN

+4.1u

May 24

100STRONG

Outs

PIT @ TOR

Dylan CeaseUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

+130

+10.5%

caesars

WIN

+2.8u

May 24

100STRONG

Outs

NYM @ MIA

Christian ScottUnder 14.5 Outs Recorded

+121

+13.9%

caesars

LOSS

-0.8u

May 24

100STRONG

Outs

CWS @ SF

Robbie RayUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

+104

+17.1%

thescore

WIN

+2.4u

May 24

100STRONG

Outs

SEA @ KC

Seth LugoUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

+115

+17.2%

caesars

LOSS

-1.1u

May 23

100STRONG

Outs

SEA @ KC

Stephen KolekUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

-104

+15.1%

fanduel

LOSS

-1.0u

May 23

100STRONG

Outs

PIT @ TOR

Paul SkenesUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

+165

+16.8%

caesars

WIN

+0.0u

May 22

100STRONG

Outs

TB @ NYY

Gerrit ColeOver 16.5 Outs Recorded

+125

+11.2%

thescore

WIN

+1.1u

May 22

100STRONG

Outs

HOU @ CHC

Jameson TaillonUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

+133

+11.4%

fanduel

WIN

+0.4u

May 22

100STRONG

Outs

SEA @ KC

Logan GilbertUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

+120

+16.3%

draftkings

WIN

+2.2u

May 20

100STRONG

Outs

BAL @ TB

Shane BazUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

-118

+11.8%

betmgm

LOSS

-4.5u

May 20

100STRONG

Outs

SF @ ARI

Merrill KellyUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

+135

+35.4%

draftkings

LOSS

-4.5u

May 19

100STRONG

Outs

NYM @ WSH

Foster GriffinOver 17.5 Outs Recorded

-115

+13.5%

betmgm

LOSS

-0.6u

May 19

100STRONG

Outs

CWS @ SEA

Bryce MillerOver 13.5 Outs Recorded

-112

+14.1%

caesars

WIN

+0.0u

May 19

100STRONG

Outs

HOU @ MIN

Jason AlexanderOver 14.5 Outs Recorded

-115

+14.8%

betmgm

WIN

+4.2u

May 19

100STRONG

Outs

SF @ ARI

Ryne NelsonUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

+114

+15.0%

betmgm

LOSS

-1.3u

May 19

100STRONG

Outs

MIL @ CHC

Ben BrownOver 13.5 Outs Recorded

-110

+15.9%

betmgm

WIN

+4.4u

May 19

100STRONG

Outs

PIT @ STL

Matthew LiberatoreUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

-114

+18.5%

caesars

WIN

+0.0u

May 19

100STRONG

Outs

BOS @ KC

Bailey FalterOver 6.5 Outs Recorded

+110

+53.2%

betmgm

LOSS

-4.9u

OutsMay 29

100STRONG

BOS @ CLE

Slade CecconiUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (5 days rest)

ODDS

+108

EDGE

+11.7%

BOOK

betmgm

WIN

+0.6u

OutsMay 29

100STRONG

SF @ COL

Michael LorenzenOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.3 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (17 days rest)

ODDS

+116

EDGE

+13.0%

BOOK

draftkings

LOSS

-0.8u

OutsMay 29

100STRONG

KC @ TEX

Stephen KolekUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>deep into games recently (6.0 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (11 days rest)

ODDS

+112

EDGE

+13.6%

BOOK

fanduel

WIN

+0.9u

OutsMay 28

100STRONG

TOR @ BAL

Chris BassittUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.0 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (22 days rest)

ODDS

+106

EDGE

+16.3%

BOOK

betmgm

LOSS

-0.7u

OutsMay 27

100STRONG

COL @ LAD

Tomoyuki SuganoOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.3 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (18 days rest)

ODDS

+129

EDGE

+10.4%

BOOK

draftkings

LOSS

-0.9u

OutsMay 27

100STRONG

MIN @ CWS

Connor PrielippOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (5 days rest)

ODDS

+130

EDGE

+18.1%

BOOK

betmgm

LOSS

-0.9u

OutsMay 27

100STRONG

MIA @ TOR

Kevin GausmanUnder 18.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (11 days rest)

ODDS

+135

EDGE

+18.2%

BOOK

caesars

WIN

+1.7u

OutsMay 26

100STRONG

PHI @ SD

Randy VásquezOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.7 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (16 days rest)

ODDS

+118

EDGE

+16.7%

BOOK

fanduel

WIN

+0.0u

OutsMay 25

100STRONG

PHI @ SD

Randy VásquezOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

-114

EDGE

+10.0%

BOOK

caesars

VOID

+0.0u

OutsMay 25

100STRONG

ARI @ SF

Landen RouppUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

-110

EDGE

+10.0%

BOOK

fanduel

WIN

+0.0u

OutsMay 25

100STRONG

CHC @ PIT

Carmen MlodzinskiOver 15.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+111

EDGE

+14.4%

BOOK

caesars

LOSS

+0.0u

OutsMay 25

100STRONG

CIN @ NYM

Nolan McLeanUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+150

EDGE

+20.1%

BOOK

betmgm

WIN

+4.1u

OutsMay 24

100STRONG

PIT @ TOR

Dylan CeaseUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+130

EDGE

+10.5%

BOOK

caesars

WIN

+2.8u

OutsMay 24

100STRONG

NYM @ MIA

Christian ScottUnder 14.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+121

EDGE

+13.9%

BOOK

caesars

LOSS

-0.8u

OutsMay 24

100STRONG

CWS @ SF

Robbie RayUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+104

EDGE

+17.1%

BOOK

thescore

WIN

+2.4u

OutsMay 24

100STRONG

SEA @ KC

Seth LugoUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+115

EDGE

+17.2%

BOOK

caesars

LOSS

-1.1u

OutsMay 23

100STRONG

SEA @ KC

Stephen KolekUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

-104

EDGE

+15.1%

BOOK

fanduel

LOSS

-1.0u

OutsMay 23

100STRONG

PIT @ TOR

Paul SkenesUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+165

EDGE

+16.8%

BOOK

caesars

WIN

+0.0u

OutsMay 22

100STRONG

TB @ NYY

Gerrit ColeOver 16.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+125

EDGE

+11.2%

BOOK

thescore

WIN

+1.1u

OutsMay 22

100STRONG

HOU @ CHC

Jameson TaillonUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+133

EDGE

+11.4%

BOOK

fanduel

WIN

+0.4u

OutsMay 22

100STRONG

SEA @ KC

Logan GilbertUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+120

EDGE

+16.3%

BOOK

draftkings

WIN

+2.2u

OutsMay 20

100STRONG

BAL @ TB

Shane BazUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

-118

EDGE

+11.8%

BOOK

betmgm

LOSS

-4.5u

OutsMay 20

100STRONG

SF @ ARI

Merrill KellyUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+135

EDGE

+35.4%

BOOK

draftkings

LOSS

-4.5u

OutsMay 19

100STRONG

NYM @ WSH

Foster GriffinOver 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

-115

EDGE

+13.5%

BOOK

betmgm

LOSS

-0.6u

OutsMay 19

100STRONG

CWS @ SEA

Bryce MillerOver 13.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

-112

EDGE

+14.1%

BOOK

caesars

WIN

+0.0u

OutsMay 19

100STRONG

HOU @ MIN

Jason AlexanderOver 14.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

-115

EDGE

+14.8%

BOOK

betmgm

WIN

+4.2u

OutsMay 19

100STRONG

SF @ ARI

Ryne NelsonUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+114

EDGE

+15.0%

BOOK

betmgm

LOSS

-1.3u

OutsMay 19

100STRONG

MIL @ CHC

Ben BrownOver 13.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

-110

EDGE

+15.9%

BOOK

betmgm

WIN

+4.4u

OutsMay 19

100STRONG

PIT @ STL

Matthew LiberatoreUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

-114

EDGE

+18.5%

BOOK

caesars

WIN

+0.0u

OutsMay 19

100STRONG

BOS @ KC

Bailey FalterOver 6.5 Outs Recorded

ODDS

+110

EDGE

+53.2%

BOOK

betmgm

LOSS

-4.9u

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