Models·Outs

Outs Props

Projects outs recorded by a starter via Normal IP simulation (proxy model derived from K system features). Not a separately trained model.

Model

Proxy

Out-of-sample

Bets

1966

Paper mode

Win Rate

48.6%

W / (W+L)

ROI

+2.8%

Settled bets

Avg Edge

+4.8%

Model vs implied

Model configuration

AlgorithmXGBoost (gradient boosted trees)

Training Data2021–2025

ValidationWalk-forward cross-validation

Edge Threshold+4% minimum

Kelly Fraction40% Kelly

Bet Gate1966/200 (cleared)

CalibrationModel prob vs actual hit rate

50-60%49% (32/65)

60-70%43% (15/35)

Well-calibrated: bar width should match bucket label.

Feature List

8 features · XGBoost importance ranking

Feature

Description

Importance

Pitch Efficiency

Pitches per out (season) — lower = deeper into games

High

IP/Start (season)

Average innings per start

High

IP/Start (L5)

Innings per start over last 5

High

Bullpen Availability

Bullpen rest score — tired bullpen = longer starter

Medium

Opponent OBP

Opponent on-base percentage (season)

Medium

Opponent OBP (L14)

Opponent OBP over last 14 days

Medium

Win Probability Context

Expected leverage — blowouts = shorter starts

Low

Home/Away Split

IP/Start differential home vs. away

Low

200-Bet Gate Progress1966/200

Gate Cleared

Total P&L

+23.58u

Avg Edge

+4.8%

Win Rate

48.6%

Sample Size

1966

Settled bets

Full settled history

Today's Picks →

SYSTEM

GAME

PICK

BOOK

RESULT

P&L

Aug 30

100STRONG

Outs

SEA@

TOR

Logan GilbertUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.9 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (5 days rest)

+160

imp 38%

+15.1%

caesars

WIN

+1.2u

Aug 30

100STRONG

Outs

PHI@

LAA

Yusei KikuchiUnder 15.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.0 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (121 days rest)

-102

imp 50%

+16.8%

draftkings

LOSS

-0.7u

Aug 30

100STRONG

Outs

BOS@

NYY

Ranger SuarezUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+110

imp 48%

+18.9%

caesars

WIN

+0.8u

Aug 28

100STRONG

Outs

PHI@

LAA

Andrew PainterUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (6 days rest)

-104

imp 51%

+16.1%

betmgm

LOSS

-0.6u

Aug 25

100STRONG

Outs

TEX@

CWS

Jacob deGromUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (7 days rest)

+100

imp 50%

+14.9%

betmgm

WIN

+0.7u

Aug 25

100STRONG

Outs

PHI@

SEA

Aaron NolaUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (6 days rest)

-105

imp 51%

+16.0%

draftkings

LOSS

+0.0u

Aug 25

100STRONG

Outs

PHI@

SEA

George KirbyUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (6 days rest)

-105

imp 51%

+16.4%

draftkings

LOSS

-0.7u

Aug 24

100STRONG

Outs

COL@

WSH

Ryan FeltnerUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (6 days rest)

-105

imp 51%

+15.4%

draftkings

LOSS

-0.1u

Aug 24

100STRONG

Outs

BOS@

MIA

Ranger SuarezUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+102

imp 50%

+16.6%

fanduel

WIN

+0.6u

Aug 23

100STRONG

Outs

WSH@

MIA

Janson JunkUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (5 days rest)

-105

imp 51%

+17.2%

caesars

WIN

+0.6u

Aug 22

100STRONG

Outs

MIN@

Casey MizeUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (6 days rest)

-105

imp 51%

+15.2%

fanduel

WIN

+0.7u

Aug 30

99STRONG

Outs

BAL@

OAK

Chris BassittUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+105

imp 49%

+14.6%

fanduel

LOSS

-0.7u

Aug 26

97STRONG

Outs

COL@

WSH

Tanner GordonUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (18 days rest)

-114

imp 53%

+13.8%

betmgm

LOSS

-0.8u

Aug 23

97STRONG

Outs

ATL@

MIL

Shane DrohanOver 14.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.6 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+140

imp 42%

+13.9%

thescore

WIN

+0.8u

Aug 26

96STRONG

Outs

BOS@

MIA

Sonny GrayUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.7 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+155

imp 39%

+13.7%

draftkings

WIN

+1.2u

Aug 28

95STRONG

Outs

BAL@

OAK

Brandon YoungUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (5 days rest)

-105

imp 51%

+13.4%

fanduel

LOSS

-0.7u

Aug 22

95STRONG

Outs

STL@

PHI

Quinn MathewsUnder 14.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (16 days rest)

+153

imp 40%

+13.4%

caesars

LOSS

-0.7u

Aug 28

94STRONG

Outs

SEA@

TOR

Dylan CeaseUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>deep into games recently (6.6 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+160

imp 38%

+13.0%

fanduel

LOSS

-0.8u

Aug 26

94STRONG

Outs

BAL@

STL

Kyle BradishUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (5 days rest)

-115

imp 53%

+13.0%

draftkings

WIN

+0.5u

Aug 24

94STRONG

Outs

COL@

WSH

Cade CavalliUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>deep into games recently (6.0 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+155

imp 39%

+13.0%

caesars

LOSS

-0.5u

Aug 22

94STRONG

Outs

TOR@

NYY

Dylan CeaseUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>deep into games recently (6.5 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (5 days rest)

+155

imp 39%

+12.9%

draftkings

LOSS

-0.1u

Aug 30

93STRONG

Outs

CWS@

MIN

Zebby MatthewsUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+100

imp 50%

+12.8%

fanduel

LOSS

-0.7u

Aug 27

93STRONG

Outs

MIL@

NYM

Jacob MisiorowskiUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+144

imp 41%

+12.7%

fanduel

LOSS

-0.8u

Aug 24

93STRONG

Outs

PIT@

Braxton AshcraftUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.3 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (5 days rest)

+126

imp 44%

+12.8%

draftkings

LOSS

-0.2u

Aug 30

92STRONG

Outs

KC@

CLE

Parker MessickUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>deep into games recently (6.3 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (5 days rest)

+145

imp 41%

+12.5%

caesars

LOSS

-0.6u

Aug 24

92STRONG

Outs

CHC@

ARI

Merrill KellyUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

>well-rested (6 days rest)

-114

imp 53%

+12.4%

caesars

LOSS

-0.6u

Aug 29

89STRONG

Outs

HOU@

NYM

Nolan McLeanUnder 20.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (6 days rest)

-121

imp 55%

+13.1%

caesars

LOSS

-0.2u

Aug 23

89STRONG

Outs

PIT@

LAD

Blake SnellUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+140

imp 42%

+11.8%

draftkings

LOSS

-0.5u

Aug 28

88STRONG

Outs

CIN@

CHC

David PetersonUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

>solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (10 days rest)

-120

imp 55%

+12.7%

fanduel

WIN

+0.7u

Aug 24

88STRONG

Outs

PHI@

SEA

Logan GilbertUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

>deep into games recently (6.1 IP avg L5)

>well-rested (6 days rest)

+142

imp 41%

+11.6%

draftkings

WIN

+0.6u

OutsAug 30

100STRONG

SEA@

TOR

Logan GilbertUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.9 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (5 days rest)

ODDS

+160

imp 38%

EDGE

+15.1%

BOOK

caesars

WIN

+1.2u

OutsAug 30

100STRONG

PHI@

LAA

Yusei KikuchiUnder 15.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.0 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (121 days rest)

ODDS

-102

imp 50%

EDGE

+16.8%

BOOK

draftkings

LOSS

-0.7u

OutsAug 30

100STRONG

BOS@

NYY

Ranger SuarezUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+110

imp 48%

EDGE

+18.9%

BOOK

caesars

WIN

+0.8u

OutsAug 28

100STRONG

PHI@

LAA

Andrew PainterUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

-104

imp 51%

EDGE

+16.1%

BOOK

betmgm

LOSS

-0.6u

OutsAug 25

100STRONG

TEX@

CWS

Jacob deGromUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (7 days rest)

ODDS

+100

imp 50%

EDGE

+14.9%

BOOK

betmgm

WIN

+0.7u

OutsAug 25

100STRONG

PHI@

SEA

Aaron NolaUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

-105

imp 51%

EDGE

+16.0%

BOOK

draftkings

LOSS

+0.0u

OutsAug 25

100STRONG

PHI@

SEA

George KirbyUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

-105

imp 51%

EDGE

+16.4%

BOOK

draftkings

LOSS

-0.7u

OutsAug 24

100STRONG

COL@

WSH

Ryan FeltnerUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

-105

imp 51%

EDGE

+15.4%

BOOK

draftkings

LOSS

-0.1u

OutsAug 24

100STRONG

BOS@

MIA

Ranger SuarezUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+102

imp 50%

EDGE

+16.6%

BOOK

fanduel

WIN

+0.6u

OutsAug 23

100STRONG

WSH@

MIA

Janson JunkUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (5 days rest)

ODDS

-105

imp 51%

EDGE

+17.2%

BOOK

caesars

WIN

+0.6u

OutsAug 22

100STRONG

MIN@

Casey MizeUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

-105

imp 51%

EDGE

+15.2%

BOOK

fanduel

WIN

+0.7u

OutsAug 30

99STRONG

BAL@

OAK

Chris BassittUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+105

imp 49%

EDGE

+14.6%

BOOK

fanduel

LOSS

-0.7u

OutsAug 26

97STRONG

COL@

WSH

Tanner GordonUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (18 days rest)

ODDS

-114

imp 53%

EDGE

+13.8%

BOOK

betmgm

LOSS

-0.8u

OutsAug 23

97STRONG

ATL@

MIL

Shane DrohanOver 14.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.6 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+140

imp 42%

EDGE

+13.9%

BOOK

thescore

WIN

+0.8u

OutsAug 26

96STRONG

BOS@

MIA

Sonny GrayUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.7 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+155

imp 39%

EDGE

+13.7%

BOOK

draftkings

WIN

+1.2u

OutsAug 28

95STRONG

BAL@

OAK

Brandon YoungUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (5 days rest)

ODDS

-105

imp 51%

EDGE

+13.4%

BOOK

fanduel

LOSS

-0.7u

OutsAug 22

95STRONG

STL@

PHI

Quinn MathewsUnder 14.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (16 days rest)

ODDS

+153

imp 40%

EDGE

+13.4%

BOOK

caesars

LOSS

-0.7u

OutsAug 28

94STRONG

SEA@

TOR

Dylan CeaseUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·deep into games recently (6.6 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+160

imp 38%

EDGE

+13.0%

BOOK

fanduel

LOSS

-0.8u

OutsAug 26

94STRONG

BAL@

STL

Kyle BradishUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (5 days rest)

ODDS

-115

imp 53%

EDGE

+13.0%

BOOK

draftkings

WIN

+0.5u

OutsAug 24

94STRONG

COL@

WSH

Cade CavalliUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·deep into games recently (6.0 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+155

imp 39%

EDGE

+13.0%

BOOK

caesars

LOSS

-0.5u

OutsAug 22

94STRONG

TOR@

NYY

Dylan CeaseUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·deep into games recently (6.5 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (5 days rest)

ODDS

+155

imp 39%

EDGE

+12.9%

BOOK

draftkings

LOSS

-0.1u

OutsAug 30

93STRONG

CWS@

MIN

Zebby MatthewsUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.1 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+100

imp 50%

EDGE

+12.8%

BOOK

fanduel

LOSS

-0.7u

OutsAug 27

93STRONG

MIL@

NYM

Jacob MisiorowskiUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+144

imp 41%

EDGE

+12.7%

BOOK

fanduel

LOSS

-0.8u

OutsAug 24

93STRONG

PIT@

Braxton AshcraftUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.3 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (5 days rest)

ODDS

+126

imp 44%

EDGE

+12.8%

BOOK

draftkings

LOSS

-0.2u

OutsAug 30

92STRONG

KC@

CLE

Parker MessickUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·deep into games recently (6.3 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (5 days rest)

ODDS

+145

imp 41%

EDGE

+12.5%

BOOK

caesars

LOSS

-0.6u

OutsAug 24

92STRONG

CHC@

ARI

Merrill KellyUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

-114

imp 53%

EDGE

+12.4%

BOOK

caesars

LOSS

-0.6u

OutsAug 29

89STRONG

HOU@

NYM

Nolan McLeanUnder 20.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

-121

imp 55%

EDGE

+13.1%

BOOK

caesars

LOSS

-0.2u

OutsAug 23

89STRONG

PIT@

LAD

Blake SnellUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+140

imp 42%

EDGE

+11.8%

BOOK

draftkings

LOSS

-0.5u

OutsAug 28

88STRONG

CIN@

CHC

David PetersonUnder 16.5 Outs Recorded

·solid innings load (5.5 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (10 days rest)

ODDS

-120

imp 55%

EDGE

+12.7%

BOOK

fanduel

WIN

+0.7u

OutsAug 24

88STRONG

PHI@

SEA

Logan GilbertUnder 17.5 Outs Recorded

·deep into games recently (6.1 IP avg L5)

·well-rested (6 days rest)

ODDS

+142

imp 41%

EDGE

+11.6%

BOOK

draftkings

WIN

+0.6u

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