Home Run Props
Barrels, exit velocity, launch angle, pitcher HR vulnerability, park, and platoon fit.
Learn about HRbetting →Season ROI
-18.2%
Win Rate
13.2%
W / (W+L)
Total Bets
801
Paper mode
Avg Edge
+5.2%
Model vs implied
200-Bet Gate801/200
Today’s HR picks
No qualifying HR picks today.
Model runs in Central Time after lineups post.
Recent results
Full history →SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Jul 3
86STRONG
HR
STL@
CHCMichael ConfortoHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.10x HR factor)
+545
imp 16%
+11.2%
novig
LOSS
-1.7u
Jul 6
72STRONG
HR
TOR@
SFRafael DeversHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.25x HR factor)
+440
imp 19%
+8.3%
fanduel
LOSS
-3.2u
Jul 7
67STRONG
HR
ATL@
PITBryan ReynoldsHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
>above-avg HR park (1.03x)
+625
imp 14%
+7.4%
betmgm
LOSS
-2.0u
Jul 3
63LEAN
HR
PIT@
WSHBrandon LoweHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
+390
imp 20%
+6.6%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
Jul 6
54LEAN
HR
NYY@
TBJazz Chisholm Jr.Home run prop
>strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.12x HR factor)
+505
imp 17%
+4.9%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.9u
Jul 12
52LEAN
HR
PHI@
DETKyle SchwarberHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (12% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (20% HR rate)
+340
imp 23%
+4.4%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.6u
Jul 12
51LEAN
HR
LAA@
MINRyan KreidlerHome run prop
>hitter-friendly park (1.08x HR factor)
>warm conditions (89°F)
+910
imp 10%
+4.3%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Jul 7
51LEAN
HR
MIL@STLBrice TurangHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
>warm conditions (85°F)
+910
imp 10%
+4.3%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.1u
Jul 6
51LEAN
HR
MIL@STLPedro PagésHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.10x HR factor)
+900
imp 10%
+4.2%
fanduel
LOSS
-1.5u
Jul 7
50LEAN
HR
PHI@
CINTJ FriedlHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (9% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.15x HR factor)
+890
imp 10%
+4.1%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.0u
Jul 3
50LEAN
HR
NYM@ATLJorge MateoHome run prop
>hitter-friendly park (1.08x HR factor)
>warm conditions (88°F)
+900
imp 10%
+4.0%
thescore
LOSS
-0.8u
Jul 7
49LEAN
HR
CLE@MINRyan KreidlerHome run prop
>hitter-friendly park (1.12x HR factor)
>warm conditions (81°F)
+860
imp 10%
+3.8%
draftkings
LOSS
-1.0u
Jul 12
48LEAN
HR
NYY@WSHJosé TenaHome run prop
>above-avg HR park (1.03x)
>warm conditions (81°F)
+840
imp 11%
+3.6%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Jul 7
48LEAN
HR
MIL@STLIvan HerreraHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
+840
imp 11%
+3.6%
draftkings
WIN
+7.7u
Jul 11
47LEAN
HR
HOU@
TEXJeremy PeñaHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
+830
imp 11%
+3.5%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.6u
Jul 11
47LEAN
HR
OAK@
CWSDrew RomoHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
>above-avg HR park (1.07x)
+830
imp 11%
+3.5%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.6u
Jul 11
46LEAN
HR
MIL@PITRyan O'HearnHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (9% HR rate)
>warm conditions (83°F)
+800
imp 11%
+3.1%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
Jul 7
46LEAN
HR
HOU@WSHBrice MatthewsHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (23% HR rate)
+800
imp 11%
+3.1%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.8u
Jul 3
46LEAN
HR
SF@
COLEzequiel TovarHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
+830
imp 11%
+3.3%
fanduel
WIN
+5.2u
Jul 2
45LEAN
HR
SD@
LADTy FranceHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.10x HR factor)
+630
imp 14%
+3.1%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.6u
HRJul 3
86STRONG
STL@CHCMichael ConfortoHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.10x HR factor)
ODDS
+545
imp 16%
EDGE
+11.2%
BOOK
novig
LOSS
-1.7u
HRJul 6
72STRONG
TOR@SFRafael DeversHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.25x HR factor)
ODDS
+440
imp 19%
EDGE
+8.3%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-3.2u
HRJul 7
67STRONG
ATL@PITBryan ReynoldsHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (11% HR rate)
·above-avg HR park (1.03x)
ODDS
+625
imp 14%
EDGE
+7.4%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-2.0u
HRJul 3
63LEAN
PIT@WSHBrandon LoweHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (17% HR rate)
ODDS
+390
imp 20%
EDGE
+6.6%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.4u
HRJul 6
54LEAN
NYY@TBJazz Chisholm Jr.Home run prop
·strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.12x HR factor)
ODDS
+505
imp 17%
EDGE
+4.9%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.9u
HRJul 12
52LEAN
PHI@DETKyle SchwarberHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (12% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (20% HR rate)
ODDS
+340
imp 23%
EDGE
+4.4%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.6u
HRJul 12
51LEAN
LAA@MINRyan KreidlerHome run prop
·hitter-friendly park (1.08x HR factor)
·warm conditions (89°F)
ODDS
+910
imp 10%
EDGE
+4.3%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
HRJul 7
51LEAN
MIL@STLBrice TurangHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
·warm conditions (85°F)
ODDS
+910
imp 10%
EDGE
+4.3%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.1u
HRJul 6
51LEAN
MIL@STLPedro PagésHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.10x HR factor)
ODDS
+900
imp 10%
EDGE
+4.2%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-1.5u
HRJul 7
50LEAN
PHI@CINTJ FriedlHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (9% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.15x HR factor)
ODDS
+890
imp 10%
EDGE
+4.1%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.0u
HRJul 3
50LEAN
NYM@ATLJorge MateoHome run prop
·hitter-friendly park (1.08x HR factor)
·warm conditions (88°F)
ODDS
+900
imp 10%
EDGE
+4.0%
BOOK
thescore
LOSS
-0.8u
HRJul 7
49LEAN
CLE@MINRyan KreidlerHome run prop
·hitter-friendly park (1.12x HR factor)
·warm conditions (81°F)
ODDS
+860
imp 10%
EDGE
+3.8%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-1.0u
HRJul 12
48LEAN
NYY@WSHJosé TenaHome run prop
·above-avg HR park (1.03x)
·warm conditions (81°F)
ODDS
+840
imp 11%
EDGE
+3.6%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRJul 7
48LEAN
MIL@STLIvan HerreraHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
ODDS
+840
imp 11%
EDGE
+3.6%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+7.7u
HRJul 11
47LEAN
HOU@TEXJeremy PeñaHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
ODDS
+830
imp 11%
EDGE
+3.5%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.6u
HRJul 11
47LEAN
OAK@CWSDrew RomoHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
·above-avg HR park (1.07x)
ODDS
+830
imp 11%
EDGE
+3.5%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.6u
HRJul 11
46LEAN
MIL@PITRyan O'HearnHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (9% HR rate)
·warm conditions (83°F)
ODDS
+800
imp 11%
EDGE
+3.1%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
HRJul 7
46LEAN
HOU@WSHBrice MatthewsHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (23% HR rate)
ODDS
+800
imp 11%
EDGE
+3.1%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.8u
HRJul 3
46LEAN
SF@COLEzequiel TovarHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
ODDS
+830
imp 11%
EDGE
+3.3%
BOOK
fanduel
WIN
+5.2u
HRJul 2
45LEAN
SD@LADTy FranceHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (7% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.10x HR factor)
ODDS
+630
imp 14%
EDGE
+3.1%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.6u