Home Run Props
Barrels, exit velocity, launch angle, pitcher HR vulnerability, park, and platoon fit.
Learn about HRbetting →Season ROI
-16.3%
Win Rate
10.5%
W / (W+L)
Total Bets
3796
Paper mode
Avg Edge
+-0.0%
Model vs implied
200-Bet Gate3796/200
Today’s HR picks
No qualifying HR picks today.
Model runs in Central Time after lineups post.
Recent results
Full history →SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Aug 26
76STRONG
HR
HOU@
NYYJeremy PeñaHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
+750
imp 12%
+9.1%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.7u
Aug 25
65STRONG
HR
BOS@
MIAGriffin ConineHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
>warm conditions (87°F)
+610
imp 14%
+7.0%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 26
60LEAN
HR
BOS@MIAGriffin ConineHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
>warm conditions (88°F)
+560
imp 15%
+6.0%
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 26
60LEAN
HR
LAD@
ATLMax MuncyHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
+380
imp 21%
+6.0%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
Aug 25
60LEAN
HR
TB@
DETJunior CamineroHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (18% HR rate)
+375
imp 21%
+5.9%
thescore
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 25
57LEAN
HR
TB@DETChandler SimpsonHome run prop
+4100
imp 2%
+5.4%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 26
56LEAN
HR
HOU@NYYChristian WalkerHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
+527
imp 16%
+5.2%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 26
56LEAN
HR
LAD@ATLMatt OlsonHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (16% HR rate)
+362
imp 22%
+5.3%
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
Aug 26
54LEAN
HR
TB@DETChandler SimpsonHome run prop
+3300
imp 3%
+4.8%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
Aug 24
54LEAN
HR
TEX@
CWSJake BurgerHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
+508
imp 16%
+4.7%
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
Aug 24
53LEAN
HR
CIN@
SFEugenio SuárezHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
+500
imp 17%
+4.6%
thescore
LOSS
-0.3u
Aug 24
53LEAN
HR
CIN@SFSal StewartHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (16% HR rate)
+500
imp 17%
+4.6%
thescore
LOSS
-0.3u
Aug 25
52LEAN
HR
MIL@
NYMCarson BengeHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
+970
imp 9%
+4.3%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.3u
Aug 24
52LEAN
HR
TB@DETChandler SimpsonHome run prop
>warm conditions (81°F)
+2800
imp 3%
+4.3%
betmgm
LOSS
-0.3u
Aug 24
50LEAN
HR
TEX@CWSWyatt LangfordHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
+477
imp 17%
+3.9%
draftkings
WIN
+1.0u
Aug 25
49LEAN
HR
BAL@
STLSamuel BasalloHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
>warm conditions (81°F)
+900
imp 10%
+3.7%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.2u
Aug 24
49LEAN
HR
COL@
WSHMickey MoniakHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
>hitter-friendly park (1.25x HR factor)
+470
imp 18%
+3.7%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.2u
Aug 26
46LEAN
HR
HOU@NYYJose AltuveHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
+840
imp 11%
+3.1%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.2u
Aug 25
46LEAN
HR
HOU@NYYJose AltuveHome run prop
>strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
>strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
+840
imp 11%
+3.1%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.2u
Aug 25
46LEAN
HR
COL@WSHCJ AbramsHome run prop
>strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
>above-avg HR park (1.03x)
+450
imp 18%
+3.2%
thescore
LOSS
-0.2u
HRAug 26
76STRONG
HOU@NYYJeremy PeñaHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (7% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (8% HR rate)
ODDS
+750
imp 12%
EDGE
+9.1%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.7u
HRAug 25
65STRONG
BOS@MIAGriffin ConineHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
·warm conditions (87°F)
ODDS
+610
imp 14%
EDGE
+7.0%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 26
60LEAN
BOS@MIAGriffin ConineHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
·warm conditions (88°F)
ODDS
+560
imp 15%
EDGE
+6.0%
BOOK
fanduel
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 26
60LEAN
LAD@ATLMax MuncyHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
ODDS
+380
imp 21%
EDGE
+6.0%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.5u
HRAug 25
60LEAN
TB@DETJunior CamineroHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (18% HR rate)
ODDS
+375
imp 21%
EDGE
+5.9%
BOOK
thescore
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 25
57LEAN
TB@DETChandler SimpsonHome run prop
ODDS
+4100
imp 2%
EDGE
+5.4%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 26
56LEAN
HOU@NYYChristian WalkerHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
ODDS
+527
imp 16%
EDGE
+5.2%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 26
56LEAN
LAD@ATLMatt OlsonHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (16% HR rate)
ODDS
+362
imp 22%
EDGE
+5.3%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
HRAug 26
54LEAN
TB@DETChandler SimpsonHome run prop
ODDS
+3300
imp 3%
EDGE
+4.8%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.4u
HRAug 24
54LEAN
TEX@CWSJake BurgerHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (11% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (14% HR rate)
ODDS
+508
imp 16%
EDGE
+4.7%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
HRAug 24
53LEAN
CIN@SFEugenio SuárezHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (15% HR rate)
ODDS
+500
imp 17%
EDGE
+4.6%
BOOK
thescore
LOSS
-0.3u
HRAug 24
53LEAN
CIN@SFSal StewartHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (16% HR rate)
ODDS
+500
imp 17%
EDGE
+4.6%
BOOK
thescore
LOSS
-0.3u
HRAug 25
52LEAN
MIL@NYMCarson BengeHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (8% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
ODDS
+970
imp 9%
EDGE
+4.3%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.3u
HRAug 24
52LEAN
TB@DETChandler SimpsonHome run prop
·warm conditions (81°F)
ODDS
+2800
imp 3%
EDGE
+4.3%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-0.3u
HRAug 24
50LEAN
TEX@CWSWyatt LangfordHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (9% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
ODDS
+477
imp 17%
EDGE
+3.9%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.0u
HRAug 25
49LEAN
BAL@STLSamuel BasalloHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
·warm conditions (81°F)
ODDS
+900
imp 10%
EDGE
+3.7%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.2u
HRAug 24
49LEAN
COL@WSHMickey MoniakHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (13% HR rate)
·hitter-friendly park (1.25x HR factor)
ODDS
+470
imp 18%
EDGE
+3.7%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.2u
HRAug 26
46LEAN
HOU@NYYJose AltuveHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
ODDS
+840
imp 11%
EDGE
+3.1%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.2u
HRAug 25
46LEAN
HOU@NYYJose AltuveHome run prop
·strong vs LHP (10% HR rate)
·strong vs RHP (12% HR rate)
ODDS
+840
imp 11%
EDGE
+3.1%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.2u
HRAug 25
46LEAN
COL@WSHCJ AbramsHome run prop
·strong vs RHP (10% HR rate)
·above-avg HR park (1.03x)
ODDS
+450
imp 18%
EDGE
+3.2%
BOOK
thescore
LOSS
-0.2u