| SYSTEM | MARKET | TYPE | DISTRIBUTION | STATUS | BETS | HIT % | ROI | SAMPLE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRFI | No Run First Inning | Game | XGBoost ensemble + isotonic calibration | Paper | 137 | 47.4% | -10.6% | 137/200 bets | View System -> |
| F5 | First 5 Innings | Game | XGBoost binary + isotonic calibration | Paper | 1633 | 45.7% | -10.8% | 200+ bets | View System -> |
| Game | Full Game | Game | XGBoost binary:logistic + isotonic calibration | Log-only | 110 | 52.9% | -- | 110/200 bets | View System -> |
| HR | Home Run Props | Prop | XGBoost binary + isotonic calibration | Paper | 10250 | 10.8% | -16.3% | 200+ bets | View System -> |
| Total Bases | Batter Total Bases | Prop | XGBoost count:poisson + NegBin CDF | Paper | 2542 | 51.8% | +8.2% | 200+ bets | View System -> |
| Hits | Batter Hits | Prop | XGBoost count:poisson + NegBin CDF | Log-only | 3346 | 48.8% | +8.2% | 200+ bets | View System -> |
| SB | Stolen Base Props | Prop | XGBoost count:poisson + NegBin CDF | Log-only | 291 | 8.9% | -- | 200+ bets | View System -> |
| K | Pitcher Strikeouts | Prop | XGBoost count:poisson + NegBin Monte Carlo | Paper | 3075 | 50.3% | +4.2% | 200+ bets | View System -> |
| Outs | Pitcher Outs | Prop | XGBoost count:poisson + NegBin | Paper | 2687 | 48.6% | +2.3% | 200+ bets | View System -> |
| Pitcher ER | Pitcher Earned Runs | Prop | Gamma proxy anchored to the K model | Log-only | 2624 | 51.2% | -0.7% | 200+ bets | View System -> |
| 1I | First Inning Moneyline | Game | Derived from the NRFI half-inning probabilities | -- | 825 | 41.5% | +3.4% | 200+ bets | View System -> |
| F1H | First Half | Game | F5 probability with a window scalar (proxy) | -- | 942 | 44.3% | -4.7% | 200+ bets | View System -> |
Log-only systems record every pick but are not counted as a live card until they clear 200 settled bets. Every result is public on the Results ledger.