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W1I·KC @ BAL+0.56u|L1I·COL @ SF-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Mariners @ Rays+0.38u|L1I·SEA @ TB-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals+0.41u|L1I·PHI @ DET-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Phillies @ Tigers+0.73u|LBATTER_TB·Astros @ Rangers-0.65u|WBATTER_TB·Royals @ Orioles+0.24u|LBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals-0.39u|W1I·KC @ BAL+0.56u|L1I·COL @ SF-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Mariners @ Rays+0.38u|L1I·SEA @ TB-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals+0.41u|L1I·PHI @ DET-0.61u|WBATTER_TB·Phillies @ Tigers+0.73u|LBATTER_TB·Astros @ Rangers-0.65u|WBATTER_TB·Royals @ Orioles+0.24u|LBATTER_TB·Braves @ Cardinals-0.39u|
The Edge
MLB Picks·ER

Pitcher Earned Runs

Starter quality, opponent run creation, weather, and leash context for earned-runs props.

Season ROI
-0.7%
Win Rate
54.9%
W / (W+L)
Total Bets
878
Paper mode
Avg Edge
+12.7%
Model vs implied
200-Bet Gate878/200
GATE CLEARED

Today’s Pitcher ER picks

SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Jul 16
89STRONG
ER
NYM@PHI
Aaron NolaUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
-103
imp 51%
+11.8%
draftkings
PENDING
--
ERJul 16
89STRONG
NYM@PHI
Aaron NolaUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
-103
imp 51%
EDGE
+11.8%
BOOK
draftkings
PENDING
--

Recent results

Full history →
SYSTEM
GAME
PICK
BOOK
RESULT
P&L
Jul 12
96STRONG
ER
KC@BAL
Shane BazUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
+107
imp 48%
+13.6%
betmgm
WIN
+1.1u
Jul 11
95STRONG
ER
CHC@CIN
Nick LodoloUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
+100
imp 50%
+13.2%
betmgm
WIN
+1.5u
Jul 12
92STRONG
ER
MIL@PIT
Paul SkenesUnder 1.5 Earned Runs
+125
imp 44%
+12.4%
betmgm
LOSS
-1.0u
Jul 12
89STRONG
ER
CLE@MIA
Tyler PhillipsOver 1.5 Earned Runs
+100
imp 50%
+11.8%
betmgm
WIN
+1.0u
Jul 11
87STRONG
ER
CLE@MIA
Tanner BibeeOver 2.5 Earned Runs
+100
imp 50%
+11.3%
betmgm
LOSS
-1.5u
Jul 12
84STRONG
ER
ATL@STL
Dustin MayOver 2.5 Earned Runs
+120
imp 45%
+10.9%
betmgm
LOSS
-1.0u
Jul 11
83STRONG
ER
LAA@MIN
Joe RyanUnder 1.5 Earned Runs
+130
imp 43%
+10.6%
betmgm
LOSS
-1.4u
Jul 12
82STRONG
ER
HOU@TEX
MacKenzie GoreUnder 1.5 Earned Runs
+131
imp 43%
+10.3%
betmgm
WIN
+1.2u
Jul 11
80STRONG
ER
KC@BAL
Noah CameronUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
+115
imp 47%
+10.0%
betmgm
LOSS
-1.4u
Jul 12
78STRONG
ER
CHC@CIN
Andrew AbbottUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
+120
imp 45%
+9.5%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.9u
Jul 11
76STRONG
ER
TOR@SD
Walker BuehlerOver 2.5 Earned Runs
+115
imp 47%
+9.3%
betmgm
WIN
+1.5u
Jul 11
76STRONG
ER
ARI@LAD
Brandon PfaadtUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
+115
imp 47%
+9.2%
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
Jul 12
73STRONG
ER
LAA@MIN
José SorianoUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
-112
imp 53%
+8.6%
betmgm
LOSS
-0.9u
Jul 11
71STRONG
ER
OAK@CWS
Gage JumpUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
-118
imp 54%
+8.2%
betmgm
WIN
+1.1u
Jul 12
70STRONG
ER
OAK@CWS
J.T. GinnOver 2.5 Earned Runs
-119
imp 54%
+8.1%
draftkings
WIN
+0.8u
Jul 12
69STRONG
ER
NYY@WSH
Cade CavalliOver 2.5 Earned Runs
+110
imp 48%
+7.8%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.8u
Jul 12
58LEAN
ER
TOR@SD
Kevin GausmanUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
-125
imp 56%
+6.6%
draftkings
LOSS
-0.8u
Jul 11
56LEAN
ER
HOU@TEX
Peter LambertUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
+100
imp 50%
+5.1%
draftkings
WIN
+0.7u
Jul 11
53LEAN
ER
PHI@DET
Cristopher SánchezOver 1.5 Earned Runs
-135
imp 57%
+5.7%
betmgm
WIN
+0.7u
Jul 12
46LEAN
ER
NYY@WSH
Cade CavalliUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
-135
imp 57%
+4.1%
draftkings
WIN
+0.2u
ERJul 12
96STRONG
KC@BAL
Shane BazUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+107
imp 48%
EDGE
+13.6%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+1.1u
ERJul 11
95STRONG
CHC@CIN
Nick LodoloUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+100
imp 50%
EDGE
+13.2%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+1.5u
ERJul 12
92STRONG
MIL@PIT
Paul SkenesUnder 1.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+125
imp 44%
EDGE
+12.4%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-1.0u
ERJul 12
89STRONG
CLE@MIA
Tyler PhillipsOver 1.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+100
imp 50%
EDGE
+11.8%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+1.0u
ERJul 11
87STRONG
CLE@MIA
Tanner BibeeOver 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+100
imp 50%
EDGE
+11.3%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-1.5u
ERJul 12
84STRONG
ATL@STL
Dustin MayOver 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+120
imp 45%
EDGE
+10.9%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-1.0u
ERJul 11
83STRONG
LAA@MIN
Joe RyanUnder 1.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+130
imp 43%
EDGE
+10.6%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-1.4u
ERJul 12
82STRONG
HOU@TEX
MacKenzie GoreUnder 1.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+131
imp 43%
EDGE
+10.3%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+1.2u
ERJul 11
80STRONG
KC@BAL
Noah CameronUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+115
imp 47%
EDGE
+10.0%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-1.4u
ERJul 12
78STRONG
CHC@CIN
Andrew AbbottUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+120
imp 45%
EDGE
+9.5%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.9u
ERJul 11
76STRONG
TOR@SD
Walker BuehlerOver 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+115
imp 47%
EDGE
+9.3%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+1.5u
ERJul 11
76STRONG
ARI@LAD
Brandon PfaadtUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+115
imp 47%
EDGE
+9.2%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+1.4u
ERJul 12
73STRONG
LAA@MIN
José SorianoUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
-112
imp 53%
EDGE
+8.6%
BOOK
betmgm
LOSS
-0.9u
ERJul 11
71STRONG
OAK@CWS
Gage JumpUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
-118
imp 54%
EDGE
+8.2%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+1.1u
ERJul 12
70STRONG
OAK@CWS
J.T. GinnOver 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
-119
imp 54%
EDGE
+8.1%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.8u
ERJul 12
69STRONG
NYY@WSH
Cade CavalliOver 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+110
imp 48%
EDGE
+7.8%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.8u
ERJul 12
58LEAN
TOR@SD
Kevin GausmanUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
-125
imp 56%
EDGE
+6.6%
BOOK
draftkings
LOSS
-0.8u
ERJul 11
56LEAN
HOU@TEX
Peter LambertUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
+100
imp 50%
EDGE
+5.1%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.7u
ERJul 11
53LEAN
PHI@DET
Cristopher SánchezOver 1.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
-135
imp 57%
EDGE
+5.7%
BOOK
betmgm
WIN
+0.7u
ERJul 12
46LEAN
NYY@WSH
Cade CavalliUnder 2.5 Earned Runs
ODDS
-135
imp 57%
EDGE
+4.1%
BOOK
draftkings
WIN
+0.2u