| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52LEAN | Under 4.5 Receptions | 4.358% | 49% +104 9 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | ProphetX+101 | +9.4%-1.5% | ||
| 50LEAN | Under 72.5 Rec Yds | 59.862% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ProphetX-112 | +11.7%-5.4% | ||
| 44WATCH | Over 6.5 Carries | 7.663% | 53% -114 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | ProphetX-118 | +9.6%-1.6% | ||
| 40WATCH | Under 63.5 Rec Yds | 56.357% | 49% +104 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | ProphetX+112 | +8.1%+3.9%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 39WATCH | Over 11.5 Carries | 12.155% | 45% +122 1 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | ProphetX+108 | +9.5%-6.3% | ||
| 38WATCH | Over 59.5 Rush Yds | 64.755% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig-108 | +4.8%-3.7% | ||
| 37WATCH | Under 21.5 Completions | 20.258% | 53% -112 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | ProphetX-120 | +5.1%-2.9% | ||
| 29WATCH | Over 2.5 Pass TDs | 2.5045% | 41% +146 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | BetMGM+150 | +4.7%+1.6%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 27WATCH | Under 246.5 Pass Yds | 24053% | 49% +103 3 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig-104 | +3.8%-3.4% | ||
| 21WATCH | Over 39.5 Rec Yds | 39.951% | 48% +108 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Novig+104 | +2.6%-2.0% | ||
| 15WATCH | Over 14.5 Carries | 14.651% | 49% +104 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | ProphetX+101 | +1.6%-1.4% | ||
| 13WATCH | Over 0.5 Interceptions | 0.6246% | 45% +124 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | DraftKings+115 | +1.7%-4.1% | ||
| 6WATCH | Over 23.5 Rush Yds | 23.851% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | DraftKings-108 | +0.7%-3.7% | ||
| 4WATCH | Over 7.5 Carries | 7.145% | 45% +125 1 bk | L5 20% · L10 20% | Fanatics+105 | +0.6%-8.7% | ||
| 1WATCH | Under 30.5 Pass Attempts | 30.152% | 51% -106 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | ProphetX-108 | +0.1%-1.0% |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.