NFL picks

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351 rows · Priced plays, ranked by Beezy Score

Lines updated 5 min ago

SCORE	PLAYER	GAME	MARKET & LINE	MODEL	MARKET FAIR	FORM	BEST PRICE	EDGE / EV
69LEAN	Gunnar HelmTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	1.8272%	58% -136 12 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	Novig-150	+14.5%-3.8%
66LEAN	Jonathan TaylorIND	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	2.2761%	48% +108 13 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	bet365+105	+12.8%-1.7%
65LEAN	Caleb WilliamsCHI	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Pass TDs	1.4857%	43% +134 11 bk	L5 20% · L10 20%	BetRivers+128	+13.7%-2.5%
65LEAN	Kalif RaymondCHI	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 2.5 Receptions	3.566%	54% -116 12 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	bet365-120	+12.3%-1.6%
64LEAN	Matthew StaffordLAR	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Under 2.5 Pass TDs	2.0167%	54% -117 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	bet365-125	+13.3%-2.9%
64LEAN	Pat FreiermuthPIT	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.163%	50% -100 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig+100	+12.9%0.0%
64LEAN	Keaton MitchellLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	1.9270%	58% -136 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	Pinnacle-136	+12.2%-0.1%
63LEAN	Dalton SchultzHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	4.359%	47% +114 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	ProphetX+108	+12.6%-2.7%
61LEAN	Nico CollinsHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 5.5 Receptions	5.259%	46% +115 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	bet365+115	+12.9%-0.1%
61LEAN	Aaron RodgersPIT	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Pass TDs	1.7652%	41% +145 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 40%	DraftKings+138	+11.6%-2.8%
60LEAN	Harold Fannin Jr.CLE	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	3.571%	59% -143 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Pinnacle-154	+12.1%-3.0%
60LEAN	Alvin KamaraNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 23.5 Rush Yds	28.961%	50% -100 11 bk	L5 20% · L10 40%	Novig-111	+11.0%-5.0%
59LEAN	Rashod BatemanBAL	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.5470%	58% -138 10 bk	L5 80% · L10 50%	Novig-144	+11.7%-1.6%
59LEAN	C.J. StroudHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 1.5 Pass TDs	1.1668%	57% -134 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	Novig-144	+10.6%-3.0%
59LEAN	Derrick HenryBAL	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.1668%	58% -135 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	DraftKings-145	+10.4%-2.8%
58LEAN	Bijan RobinsonATL	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.457%	50% +102 13 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Novig+111	+7.3%+4.6%MODEL + MARKET
58LEAN	Kayshon BoutteHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 24.5 Rec Yds	33.363%	49% +104 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Novig+104	+14.4%-0.1%
58LEAN	DJ MooreBUF	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 49.5 Rec Yds	42.459%	50% -100 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	DraftKings-111	+9.2%-5.0%
58LEAN	Hunter HenryNE	NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	2.8568%	59% -144 12 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	FanDuel-154	+8.9%-2.8%
58LEAN	Ashton JeantyLV	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 25.5 Rec Yds	31.260%	51% -104 12 bk	L5 80% · L10 50%	FanDuel-114	+8.8%-4.2%
57LEAN	Bryce YoungCAR	CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Pass TDs	1.6850%	40% +148 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	ProphetX+144	+9.5%-1.6%
56LEAN	Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 4.5 Receptions	5.155%	45% +121 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ProphetX+119	+10.0%-0.8%
56LEAN	Darnell MooneyNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 19.5 Rec Yds	23.759%	50% -100 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ESPN BET-110	+9.2%-4.5%
56LEAN	Tony PollardTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.5654%	46% +120 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Parx+117	+8.9%-1.2%
56LEAN	Brian Thomas Jr.JAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.1060%	52% -108 12 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	Pinnacle-120	+8.2%-4.6%
55LEAN	Keaton MitchellLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 18.5 Rush Yds	23.863%	50% -100 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	ProphetX-101	+13.1%-0.5%
55LEAN	Tony PollardTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 9.5 Rec Yds	7.762%	49% +104 7 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	ProphetX-101	+13.0%-2.5%
55LEAN	Drake MayeNE	NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 27.5 Rush Yds	34.662%	50% -100 8 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	ProphetX-108	+12.2%-3.7%
55LEAN	Bijan RobinsonATL	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 28.5 Rec Yds	36.962%	50% -100 8 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	ProphetX-112	+12.1%-5.2%
55LEAN	Brian Robinson Jr.ATL	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 34.5 Rush Yds	30.259%	50% -100 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	DraftKings-109	+8.5%-4.1%
55LEAN	Noah FantNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.8554%	46% +120 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 30%	ProphetX+115	+8.4%-2.1%
55LEAN	Parker WashingtonJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.456%	49% +105 13 bk	L5 40% · L10 30%	Novig+104	+7.4%-0.5%
54LEAN	Rhamondre StevensonNE	NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 62.5 Rush Yds	50.564%	50% -100 6 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	ProphetX-112	+13.9%-5.2%
54LEAN	Germie BernardPIT	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 42.5 Rec Yds	34.462%	49% +104 7 bk	L5 75% · L10 75%	Pinnacle+101	+12.8%-1.3%
54LEAN	Garrett WilsonNYJ	NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 72.5 Rec Yds	58.063%	50% -100 7 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Pinnacle-113	+12.6%-5.8%
54LEAN	Zay FlowersBAL	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 58.5 Rec Yds	78.063%	50% -102 7 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	ProphetX-111	+12.3%-4.2%
54LEAN	Bryce YoungCAR	CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 10.5 Rush Yds	9.060%	50% -102 10 bk	L5 80% · L10 50%	Parx-110	+9.4%-3.7%
54LEAN	Calvin RidleyTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.6548%	40% +153 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Novig+150	+8.6%-1.2%
54LEAN	Devaughn VeleNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.063%	56% -129 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Parx-136	+6.9%-2.2%
54LEAN	Colston LovelandCHI	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	3.954%	47% +114 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig+113	+6.8%-0.4%
53LEAN	Josh AllenBUF	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 1.5 Pass TDs	1.3960%	47% +114 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Novig+122	+12.8%+3.8%MODEL + MARKET
53LEAN	Quentin JohnstonLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	2.4457%	47% +114 9 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Parx+125	+10.0%+5.0%MODEL + MARKET
53LEAN	Matthew StaffordLAR	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Over 0.5 Interceptions	0.8959%	44% +125 5 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	ProphetX+121	+14.4%-2.0%
53LEAN	Cam WardTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 200.5 Pass Yds	17963%	50% +100 6 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	Pinnacle-102	+13.2%-1.1%
53LEAN	Kirk CousinsLV	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 22.5 Completions	20.661%	48% +108 6 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	BetMGM+100	+13.0%-4.1%
53LEAN	Justice HillBAL	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 9.5 Rec Yds	11.760%	50% -100 9 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Parx-109	+9.7%-4.1%
53LEAN	Carnell TateTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.357%	51% -104 13 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	FanDuel-108	+6.3%-2.0%
52LEAN	Denzel BostonCLE	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.163%	50% -100 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Parx+107	+13.4%+3.5%MODEL + MARKET
52LEAN	Rico DowdlePIT	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.0258%	47% +114 11 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	Novig+122	+11.6%+3.6%MODEL + MARKET
52LEAN	Kirk CousinsLV	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 0.5 Interceptions	0.5657%	42% +136 4 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	DraftKings+132	+14.8%-1.6%
52LEAN	Chris Godwin Jr.TB	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 26.5 Rec Yds	35.563%	50% -100 6 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	Pinnacle-112	+12.6%-5.4%
52LEAN	Noah GrayKC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.4658%	50% +101 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Novig+100	+8.1%-0.6%
52LEAN	Cade OttonTB	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 29.5 Rec Yds	35.458%	50% -101 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Novig-104	+8.0%-1.3%
52LEAN	Tyler ShoughNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Pass TDs	1.3760%	53% -113 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	Novig-117	+7.3%-1.6%
52LEAN	Christian McCaffreySF	WAS@SFMON 7:15 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.358%	49% +104 9 bk	L5 80% · L10 50%	ProphetX+101	+9.4%-1.5%
51LEAN	Elic AyomanorTEN	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.6648%	45% +123 11 bk	L5 20% · L10 40%	ProphetX+132	+3.6%+4.0%MODEL + MARKET
51LEAN	Kenny GainwellTB	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 11.5 Rush Yds	15.164%	51% -104 5 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Hard Rock-115	+13.1%-4.8%
51LEAN	Josh AllenBUF	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 30.5 Pass Attempts	27.862%	50% -100 6 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	DraftKings-106	+12.0%-2.8%
51LEAN	Matthew GoldenGB	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 65.5 Rec Yds	53.762%	50% -100 6 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig+100	+11.9%0.0%
51LEAN	Josh AllenBUF	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Under 20.5 Completions	18.761%	50% -100 7 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	BetMGM-110	+11.2%-4.5%
51LEAN	D'Andre SwiftCHI	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 15.5 Rec Yds	19.461%	50% -100 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	ProphetX-112	+10.8%-5.4%
51LEAN	Jake FergusonDAL	DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.064%	55% -120 8 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	DraftKings-126	+9.8%-2.1%
51LEAN	Chris Godwin Jr.TB	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	3.850%	42% +135 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig+133	+8.0%-1.0%
50LEAN	Justin HerbertLAC	LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 0.5 Interceptions	1.2471%	57% -132 4 bk	L5 100% · L10 80%	ProphetX-144	+13.9%-3.5%
50LEAN	Josh AllenBUF	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 7.5 Carries	8.358%	45% +124 4 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	DraftKings+113	+13.8%-5.1%
50LEAN	Mike EvansSF	WAS@SFMON 7:15 PM CT	Under 72.5 Rec Yds	59.862%	50% -100 6 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ProphetX-112	+11.7%-5.4%
49LEAN	Darnell MooneyNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.7449%	46% +120 12 bk	L5 20% · L10 20%	bet365+125	+3.6%+2.4%MODEL + MARKET
49LEAN	Khalil ShakirBUF	BUF@LVSUN 3:25 PM CT	Over 38.5 Rec Yds	52.464%	50% -100 1 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	bet365-115	+14.4%-6.5%
49LEAN	DK MetcalfPIT	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 3.5 Receptions	3.555%	42% +136 5 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	ProphetX+132	+12.2%-1.8%
49LEAN	Kenyon SadiqNYJ	NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 19.5 Rec Yds	25.161%	50% -100 6 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	ProphetX-112	+11.2%-5.4%
49LEAN	Colston LovelandCHI	CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 36.5 Rec Yds	45.160%	50% -100 7 bk	L5 20% · L10 50%	ProphetX-112	+10.3%-5.4%
49LEAN	Geno SmithNYJ	NYJ@NESUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 30.5 Pass Attempts	28.260%	50% -100 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	DraftKings-110	+9.9%-4.5%
49LEAN	Bucky IrvingTB	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.3766%	60% -148 10 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	Novig-156	+6.7%-1.9%
49LEAN	Michael WilsonARI	ARI@LARSUN 3:05 PM CT	Under 5.5 Receptions	5.259%	54% -116 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	Novig-122	+5.5%-2.2%
48LEAN	Chris RodriguezJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 0.5 Receptions	0.3372%	58% -138 1 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	bet365-160	+14.0%-5.7%
48LEAN	Rashod BatemanBAL	BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 21.5 Rec Yds	28.863%	50% +100 4 bk	L5 80% · L10 50%	Parx-113	+12.9%-5.9%
48LEAN	Tyler WarrenIND	TEN@INDSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 50.5 Rec Yds	41.062%	52% -107 6 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	FanDuel-114	+10.7%-3.0%
48LEAN	Pat FreiermuthPIT	PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 36.5 Rec Yds	30.859%	50% +101 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	DraftKings-109	+9.5%-4.5%
48LEAN	Jalen CokerCAR	CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.652%	45% +122 9 bk	L5 20% · L10 60%	bet365+120	+7.2%-1.0%
48LEAN	Cam SkatteboNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.2464%	57% -134 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ProphetX-138	+6.4%-1.4%

Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.

Market prices

PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.

Player / prop	Game	Side	Book	Price	Fair	Books	EV	Status
Bijan Robinson 3.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET	CHI@ATL	UNDER	Novig	+113	50.0%	9	+6.5%	FLAGGED
Jahan Dotson 1.5 Receptions	CHI@ATL	UNDER	bet365	+150	42.1%	7	+5.4%	FLAGGED
Blake Corum 1.5 Receptions	ARI@LAR	OVER	DraftKings	+167	39.4%	7	+5.3%	FLAGGED
Rashod Bateman 1.5 Receptions	BAL@CLE	UNDER	bet365	+150	41.9%	6	+4.8%	FLAGGED
Hunter Henry 3.5 Receptions	NYJ@NE	OVER	Novig	+153	41.2%	9	+4.2%	FLAGGED
Zay Flowers 5.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET	BAL@CLE	OVER	bet365	+122	46.9%	6	+4.0%	FLAGGED
Xavier Hutchinson 14.5 Rec Yds	HOU@JAC	UNDER	Novig	+108	50.0%	5	+4.0%	FLAGGED
Cade Otton 3.5 Receptions	PIT@TB	UNDER	Parx	-121	56.9%	7	+3.9%	FLAGGED
Omarion Hampton 1.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET	LAC@KC	OVER	BetMGM	+180	37.0%	5	+3.7%	FLAGGED
Chris Olave 6.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET	NO@NYG	OVER	Novig	+133	44.5%	9	+3.6%	FLAGGED
Omar Cooper Jr. 1.5 Receptions	NYJ@NE	OVER	Novig	-122	56.9%	4	+3.6%	FLAGGED
Malachi Fields 1.5 Receptions	NO@NYG	OVER	Novig	-144	61.0%	6	+3.3%	FLAGGED
Brian Thomas Jr. 1.5 Receptions	HOU@JAC	UNDER	Novig	+113	48.4%	7	+3.1%	FLAGGED
Rico Dowdle 1.5 Receptions	PIT@TB	UNDER	Parx	-107	53.3%	7	+3.1%	FLAGGED

How the Beezy Score works

A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.

Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).

Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.

On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.