NFL picks
LIVELines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64LEAN |  Pat Freiermuth PIT | PIT@ TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.163% | 50% -100 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig+100 | +12.9%0.0% |
| 61LEAN |  Aaron RodgersPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Pass TDs | 1.7652% | 41% +145 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | DraftKings+138 | +11.6%-2.8% |
| 60LEAN |  Darnell WashingtonPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 2.1763% | 52% -109 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Pinnacle-110 | +11.1%-0.4% |
| 54LEAN |  Germie BernardPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 42.5 Rec Yds | 34.462% | 49% +104 7 bk | L5 75% · L10 75% | Pinnacle+101 | +12.8%-1.3% |
| 52LEAN |  Rico DowdlePIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.0258% | 47% +114 11 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | Novig+122 | +11.6%+3.6%MODEL + MARKET |
| 52LEAN |  Chris Godwin Jr.TB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 26.5 Rec Yds | 35.563% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | Pinnacle-112 | +12.6%-5.4% |
| 52LEAN |  Cade OttonTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 29.5 Rec Yds | 35.458% | 50% -101 10 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig-104 | +8.0%-1.3% |
| 51LEAN |  Kenny GainwellTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 11.5 Rush Yds | 15.164% | 51% -104 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Hard Rock-115 | +13.1%-4.8% |
| 51LEAN | Chris Godwin Jr.TB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.850% | 42% +135 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig+133 | +8.0%-1.0% |
| 49LEAN |  DK MetcalfPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.555% | 42% +136 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | ProphetX+132 | +12.2%-1.8% |
| 49LEAN |  Bucky IrvingTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.3766% | 60% -148 10 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | Novig-156 | +6.7%-1.9% |
| 48LEAN | Pat FreiermuthPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 36.5 Rec Yds | 30.859% | 50% +101 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | DraftKings-109 | +9.5%-4.5% |
| 47LEAN |  Emeka EgbukaTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.751% | 46% +118 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig+115 | +4.7%-1.3% |
| 42WATCH | Kenny GainwellTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.158% | 45% +120 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | Novig+127 | +12.7%+3.2%MODEL + MARKET |
| 42WATCH | Darnell WashingtonPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 21.5 Rec Yds | 25.558% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | DraftKings-113 | +7.8%-5.5% |
| 38WATCH | Bucky IrvingTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 15.5 Carries | 16.656% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | ProphetX+100 | +5.8%0.0% |
| 37WATCH | Cade OttonTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.647% | 44% +127 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | bet365+120 | +3.4%-3.2% |
| 35WATCH | Aaron RodgersPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 0.5 Interceptions | 0.6950% | 45% +124 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | ProphetX+118 | +5.1%-2.8% |
| 34WATCH |  Jaylen WarrenPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 14.5 Carries | 13.656% | 52% -108 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | DraftKings-123 | +3.9%-5.7% |
| 33WATCH | Aaron RodgersPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 33.5 Pass Attempts | 34.855% | 51% -104 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | ProphetX-111 | +3.8%-3.1% |
| 32WATCH | Jaylen WarrenPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.163% | 49% +105 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig+108 | +14.6%+1.4%MODEL + MARKET |
| 29WATCH | Jaylen WarrenPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 59.5 Rush Yds | 71.160% | 50% +100 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig+104 | +9.8%+1.9%MODEL + MARKET |
| 29WATCH | DK MetcalfPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 50.5 Rec Yds | 47.453% | 50% +100 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | Novig+100 | +3.4%-0.1% |
| 26WATCH | Emeka EgbukaTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 36.5 Rec Yds | 39.053% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig-108 | +3.2%-3.7% |
| 23WATCH | Aaron RodgersPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 226.5 Pass Yds | 23353% | 50% -100 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | DraftKings-111 | +3.0%-5.0% |
| 22WATCH | Aaron RodgersPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 21.5 Completions | 21.351% | 49% +104 7 bk | L5 20% · L10 30% | Caesars-105 | +2.4%-4.4% |
| 18WATCH | Bucky IrvingTB | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 64.5 Rush Yds | 74.258% | 50% -100 4 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Novig+102 | +7.7%+1.2%MODEL + MARKET |
| 6WATCH | Jaylen WarrenPIT | PIT@TBSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 28.5 Rec Yds | 28.750% | 49% +104 7 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | Novig+102 | +0.7%-1.0% |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
| Player / prop | Game | Side | Book | Price | Fair | Books | EV | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton 3.5 Receptions | PIT@TB | UNDER | Parx | -121 | 56.9% | 7 | +3.9% | FLAGGED |
| Rico Dowdle 1.5 Receptions | PIT@TB | UNDER | Parx | -107 | 53.3% | 7 | +3.1% | FLAGGED |
How the Beezy Score works
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
- Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
- Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
- Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.