NFL picks

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31 rows after filters · Priced plays, ranked by Beezy Score

Lines updated 14 min ago

SCORE	PLAYER	GAME	MARKET & LINE	MODEL	MARKET FAIR	FORM	BEST PRICE	EDGE / EV
60LEAN	Alvin KamaraNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 23.5 Rush Yds	28.961%	50% -100 11 bk	L5 20% · L10 40%	Novig-111	+11.0%-5.0%
56LEAN	Darnell MooneyNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 19.5 Rec Yds	23.759%	50% -100 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ESPN BET-110	+9.2%-4.5%
55LEAN	Noah FantNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.8554%	46% +120 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 30%	ProphetX+115	+8.4%-2.1%
54LEAN	Devaughn VeleNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.063%	56% -129 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Parx-136	+6.9%-2.2%
52LEAN	Tyler ShoughNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Pass TDs	1.3760%	53% -113 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	Novig-117	+7.3%-1.6%
49LEAN	Darnell MooneyNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	1.7449%	46% +120 12 bk	L5 20% · L10 20%	bet365+125	+3.6%+2.4%MODEL + MARKET
48LEAN	Cam SkatteboNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.2464%	57% -134 10 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ProphetX-138	+6.4%-1.4%
47LEAN	Alvin KamaraNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 11.5 Rec Yds	13.257%	50% -100 9 bk	L5 20% · L10 40%	Caesars-109	+6.8%-4.1%
47LEAN	Isaiah LikelyNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 5.5 Receptions	5.160%	55% -120 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 70%	Novig-122	+5.7%-0.7%
46LEAN	Juwan JohnsonNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 39.5 Rec Yds	50.061%	51% -105 6 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	ProphetX-112	+9.9%-3.2%
45LEAN	Juwan JohnsonNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 4.5 Receptions	4.545%	43% +130 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 30%	Novig+135	+2.0%+2.0%MODEL + MARKET
44WATCH	Jameis WinstonNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 19.5 Completions	18.358%	50% -100 7 bk	L5 80% · L10 86%	BetMGM-110	+7.6%-4.5%
43WATCH	Jameis WinstonNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Interceptions	0.6552%	43% +131 5 bk	L5 60% · L10 43%	Hard Rock+120	+9.2%-4.8%
43WATCH	Chris OlaveNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 79.5 Rec Yds	85.954%	50% -100 10 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	Novig-102	+4.0%-1.0%
41WATCH	Malik NabersNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 5.5 Receptions	5.850%	47% +113 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 56%	BetMGM+110	+3.4%-1.5%
40WATCH	Malachi FieldsNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 22.5 Rec Yds	27.860%	50% -100 3 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Pinnacle-112	+10.0%-5.4%
40WATCH	Malik NabersNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 72.5 Rec Yds	64.457%	50% -100 6 bk	L5 60% · L10 67%	Parx-113	+6.6%-5.8%
40WATCH	Tyler ShoughNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 22.5 Completions	24.158%	51% -105 6 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	DraftKings-119	+6.5%-5.5%
37WATCH	Cam SkatteboNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 13.5 Carries	15.059%	53% -112 5 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	ProphetX-125	+6.1%-5.0%
36WATCH	Chris OlaveNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 6.5 Receptions	6.546%	44% +126 12 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	Novig+133	+1.6%+3.0%MODEL + MARKET
36WATCH	Kendre MillerNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 0.5 Receptions	0.7747%	38% +164 1 bk	L5 60% · L10 40%	bet365+150	+9.1%-5.2%
36WATCH	Jameis WinstonNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 218.5 Pass Yds	20657%	50% -100 4 bk	L5 60% · L10 57%	Pinnacle-112	+6.8%-5.4%
30WATCH	Tyler ShoughNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 0.5 Interceptions	0.8959%	55% -122 5 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	ProphetX-130	+3.7%-2.7%
25WATCH	Tyler ShoughNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 35.5 Pass Attempts	35.851%	48% +108 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 40%	ProphetX+105	+2.7%-1.2%
23WATCH	Cam SkatteboNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Over 53.5 Rush Yds	56.253%	50% -101 6 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	Novig-108	+2.6%-3.3%
21WATCH	Devaughn VeleNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 43.5 Rec Yds	41.553%	50% -100 5 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	DraftKings-112	+2.6%-5.4%
13WATCH	Malachi FieldsNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 1.5 Receptions	2.0042%	39% +153 10 bk	L5 0% · L10 0%	bet365+155	+2.8%+0.7%MODEL + MARKET
10WATCH	Najee HarrisNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 23.5 Rush Yds	23.051%	50% -100 5 bk	L5 40% · L10 43%	DraftKings-107	+1.2%-3.3%
10WATCH	Jameis WinstonNYG	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 31.5 Pass Attempts	31.351%	50% -100 8 bk	L5 80% · L10 71%	ESPN BET-110	+1.0%-4.5%
6WATCH	Tyler ShoughNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 235.5 Pass Yds	23351%	50% -101 4 bk	L5 20% · L10 20%	DraftKings-113	+0.8%-5.1%
5WATCH	Alvin KamaraNO	NO@NYGSUN 12:00 PM CT	Under 2.5 Receptions	2.7250%	50% +100 12 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	ProphetX+101	+0.2%+0.4%MODEL + MARKET

Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.

Market prices

PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.

No prices beating the market

No NFL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.

Open the +EV terminal

How the Beezy Score works

A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.

Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).

Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.

On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.