NFL picks
LIVELines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62LEAN |  Keaton Mitchell LAC | LAC@ KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 1.9270% | 58% -135 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | Pinnacle-136 | +12.3%-0.2% |
| 55LEAN | Keaton MitchellLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 18.5 Rush Yds | 23.863% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | ProphetX-101 | +13.1%-0.5% |
| 53LEAN |  Quentin JohnstonLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 2.4457% | 47% +114 9 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Parx+125 | +10.0%+5.0%MODEL + MARKET |
| 52LEAN |  Noah GrayKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.4658% | 50% +101 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig+100 | +8.1%-0.6% |
| 50LEAN |  Justin HerbertLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 0.5 Interceptions | 1.2471% | 57% -132 4 bk | L5 100% · L10 80% | ProphetX-144 | +13.9%-3.5% |
| 48LEAN |  Travis KelceKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 52.5 Rec Yds | 46.856% | 50% -100 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | DraftKings-110 | +6.3%-4.3% |
| 45LEAN |  Omarion HamptonLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.7551% | 37% +173 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | BetMGM+180 | +14.4%+2.5%MODEL + MARKET |
| 45LEAN | Oronde GadsdenLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.0359% | 46% +116 2 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | bet365+110 | +12.3%-2.9% |
| 43WATCH |  Kenneth Walker IIIKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 90.5 Rush Yds | 10357% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | Pinnacle-111 | +7.2%-5.0% |
| 42WATCH | Patrick Mahomes IIKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 224.5 Pass Yds | 24660% | 50% -100 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ESPN BET-110 | +9.9%-4.5% |
| 36WATCH |  Ladd McConkeyLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 2.8867% | 53% -112 9 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-108 | +14.4%+1.7%MODEL + MARKET |
| 33WATCH | Patrick Mahomes IIKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 14.5 Rush Yds | 15.855% | 50% +102 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-104 | +5.5%-2.7% |
| 31WATCH |  Emmett JohnsonKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.0173% | 63% -172 9 bk | L5 50% · L10 50% | bet365-165 | +10.1%+1.5%MODEL + MARKET |
| 29WATCH | Quentin JohnstonLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 35.5 Rec Yds | 38.354% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | BetRivers-115 | +3.6%-6.3% |
| 28WATCH | Patrick Mahomes IIKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 0.5 Interceptions | 0.7050% | 47% +114 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ProphetX+110 | +3.4%-1.7% |
| 28WATCH | Patrick Mahomes IIKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 1.5 Pass TDs | 1.7652% | 50% -101 12 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | DraftKings-105 | +2.3%-2.1% |
| 27WATCH | Patrick Mahomes IIKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 31.5 Pass Attempts | 31.952% | 48% +108 4 bk | L5 20% · L10 60% | ESPN BET-105 | +3.6%-6.2% |
| 27WATCH | Noah GrayKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 12.5 Rec Yds | 13.654% | 51% -104 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | DraftKings-109 | +3.4%-2.4% |
| 25WATCH | Ladd McConkeyLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 41.5 Rec Yds | 39.453% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig-104 | +2.7%-1.9% |
| 23WATCH | Justin HerbertLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 24.5 Rush Yds | 30.862% | 50% -100 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig+102 | +12.1%+1.0%MODEL + MARKET |
| 20WATCH |  Kimani VidalLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 8.5 Rec Yds | 8.952% | 50% +101 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-104 | +2.4%-2.6% |
| 20WATCH | Justin HerbertLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 30.5 Pass Attempts | 29.853% | 51% -102 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | ProphetX-106 | +2.3%-1.8% |
| 13WATCH | Kenneth Walker IIIKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 20.5 Rec Yds | 21.152% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig-111 | +1.6%-5.0% |
| 13WATCH | Kenneth Walker IIIKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 19.5 Carries | 19.450% | 48% +108 5 bk | L5 80% · L10 40% | ProphetX+103 | +1.6%-2.3% |
| 9WATCH | Justin HerbertLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 0.5 Pass TDs | 1.0136% | 35% +182 11 bk | L5 0% · L10 10% | BetRivers+170 | +1.0%-4.3% |
| 6WATCH | Justin HerbertLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 194.5 Pass Yds | 19351% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | bet365-115 | +0.8%-6.5% |
| 6WATCH | Justin HerbertLAC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Under 18.5 Completions | 18.352% | 51% -104 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | DraftKings-117 | +0.6%-5.4% |
| 1WATCH | Patrick Mahomes IIKC | LAC@KCSUN 3:25 PM CT | Over 20.5 Completions | 19.946% | 46% +117 4 bk | L5 20% · L10 40% | Caesars+106 | +0.1%-5.1% |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
| Player / prop | Game | Side | Book | Price | Fair | Books | EV | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Mitchell 2.5 Receptions | LAC@KC | OVER | bet365 | +150 | 43.3% | 7 | +8.2% | FLAGGED |
| Omarion Hampton 1.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET | LAC@KC | OVER | BetMGM | +180 | 37.0% | 5 | +3.7% | FLAGGED |
How the Beezy Score works
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
- Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
- Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
- Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.