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31 rows after filters · Priced plays, ranked by Beezy Score

Lines updated 14 min ago

SCORE	PLAYER	GAME	MARKET & LINE	MODEL	MARKET FAIR	FORM	BEST PRICE	EDGE / EV
64LEAN	Nico CollinsHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 5.5 Receptions	5.259%	46% +116 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	bet365+115	+13.0%-0.3%
61LEAN	Dalton SchultzHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	4.359%	47% +113 10 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	ProphetX+108	+12.5%-2.5%
60LEAN	Kayshon BoutteHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 24.5 Rec Yds	33.363%	49% +104 8 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	Novig+104	+14.4%-0.1%
59LEAN	C.J. StroudHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 1.5 Pass TDs	1.1668%	57% -134 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	Novig-144	+10.6%-3.0%
56LEAN	Brian Thomas Jr.JAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.1060%	52% -108 12 bk	L5 60% · L10 80%	Pinnacle-120	+8.2%-4.6%
55LEAN	Parker WashingtonJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 4.5 Receptions	4.456%	49% +106 12 bk	L5 40% · L10 30%	Novig+104	+7.6%-0.8%
54LEAN	Trevor LawrenceJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 12.5 Rush Yds	16.263%	51% -104 7 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Parx-117	+12.3%-5.4%
48LEAN	Chris RodriguezJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 0.5 Receptions	0.3372%	58% -138 1 bk	L5 80% · L10 60%	bet365-160	+14.0%-5.7%
44WATCH	Jakobi MeyersJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 32.5 Rec Yds	41.962%	51% -102 4 bk	L5 80% · L10 80%	DraftKings-111	+11.1%-4.0%
44WATCH	Trevor LawrenceJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 228.5 Pass Yds	25361%	50% +100 4 bk	L5 40% · L10 60%	Novig-104	+10.8%-2.1%
43WATCH	C.J. StroudHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 0.5 Interceptions	0.4763%	53% -115 5 bk	L5 100% · L10 70%	ProphetX-120	+9.4%-2.0%
43WATCH	Brenton StrangeJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	4.359%	55% -124 11 bk	L5 40% · L10 40%	DraftKings-129	+3.7%-1.6%
41WATCH	Nate BoerkircherJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 0.5 Receptions	1.0965%	61% -157 9 bk	L5 75% · L10 75%	ProphetX-164	+4.0%-1.8%
40WATCH	C.J. StroudHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 3.5 Carries	2.9267%	58% -138 4 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	DraftKings-147	+8.9%-2.6%
40WATCH	Trevor LawrenceJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 3.5 Carries	3.756%	49% +104 6 bk	L5 20% · L10 50%	Caesars-109	+6.8%-6.1%
40WATCH	Trevor LawrenceJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 19.5 Completions	20.355%	49% +104 7 bk	L5 20% · L10 50%	DraftKings-109	+5.7%-5.9%
38WATCH	Brenton StrangeJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 37.5 Rec Yds	43.157%	50% -100 5 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Caesars-112	+6.8%-5.4%
36WATCH	C.J. StroudHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 256.5 Pass Yds	27056%	49% +105 4 bk	L5 80% · L10 40%	Novig+102	+6.9%-1.5%
33WATCH	Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.0058%	55% -122 11 bk	L5 20% · L10 50%	ProphetX-125	+2.9%-1.0%
32WATCH	Jaylin NoelHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	2.2664%	58% -138 1 bk	L5 80% · L10 50%	bet365-160	+6.0%-5.7%
32WATCH	Trevor LawrenceJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 0.5 Interceptions	0.6751%	47% +112 5 bk	L5 40% · L10 50%	Caesars+101	+4.0%-5.3%
27WATCH	Parker WashingtonJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 62.5 Rec Yds	67.053%	50% -101 5 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	DraftKings-113	+3.3%-5.4%
25WATCH	Trevor LawrenceJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 32.5 Pass Attempts	31.156%	52% -109 4 bk	L5 80% · L10 70%	DraftKings-122	+3.4%-4.9%
22WATCH	Jakobi MeyersJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 3.5 Receptions	3.443%	41% +144 10 bk	L5 20% · L10 50%	ProphetX+136	+2.2%-3.3%
19WATCH	C.J. StroudHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 9.5 Rush Yds	9.451%	49% +104 9 bk	L5 20% · L10 50%	Novig+104	+1.8%-0.1%
18WATCH	Bhayshul TutenJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 9.5 Rec Yds	9.053%	50% -100 7 bk	L5 20% · L10 50%	ProphetX+102	+3.1%+1.0%MODEL + MARKET
17WATCH	Kayshon BoutteHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 2.5 Receptions	2.3441%	39% +157 8 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	BetMGM+150	+2.0%-2.7%
11WATCH	C.J. StroudHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 35.5 Pass Attempts	35.450%	49% +104 4 bk	L5 60% · L10 70%	Hard Rock-105	+1.4%-4.3%
9WATCH	Nico CollinsHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Under 73.5 Rec Yds	71.851%	50% -100 4 bk	L5 60% · L10 50%	bet365-115	+1.2%-6.5%
4WATCH	Josh CameronJAC	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 1.5 Receptions	1.7150%	50% +101 11 bk	L5 60% · L10 60%	Novig+104	+0.1%+1.4%MODEL + MARKET
3WATCH	C.J. StroudHOU	HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT	Over 22.5 Completions	22.650%	50% -100 7 bk	L5 60% · L10 40%	BetMGM-110	+0.3%-4.5%

Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.

Market prices

PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.

Player / prop	Game	Side	Book	Price	Fair	Books	EV	Status
Bhayshul Tuten 1.5 Receptions	HOU@JAC	UNDER	Pinnacle	+140	43.0%	6	+3.1%	FLAGGED

How the Beezy Score works

A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.

Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).

Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.

On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.