NFL picks
LIVELines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51LEAN |  Matthew Golden GB |  DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 65.5 Rec Yds | 53.762% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig+100 | +11.9%0.0% |
| 51LEAN |  Jake FergusonDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.064% | 55% -120 8 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | DraftKings-126 | +9.8%-2.1% |
| 47LEAN |  Christian WatsonGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 4.455% | 45% +122 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig+117 | +10.3%-2.0% |
| 43WATCH |  Javonte WilliamsDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 13.5 Rec Yds | 11.758% | 49% +104 5 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | Caesars-110 | +9.1%-6.3% |
| 43WATCH | Javonte WilliamsDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 2.5854% | 48% +110 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | FanDuel+106 | +6.0%-2.1% |
| 43WATCH |  Tucker KraftGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 4.161% | 55% -121 8 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig-122 | +6.0%-0.2% |
| 41WATCH |  Ryan FlournoyDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 31.5 Rec Yds | 37.959% | 50% -100 4 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig-113 | +9.2%-5.8% |
| 41WATCH |  KaVontae TurpinDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 0.5 Receptions | 1.0564% | 57% -131 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ProphetX-136 | +7.3%-1.7% |
| 35WATCH |  Jordan LoveGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 0.5 Interceptions | 0.5160% | 55% -123 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | ProphetX-128 | +5.1%-1.9% |
| 35WATCH | Jordan LoveGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 34.5 Pass Attempts | 35.453% | 49% +104 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | ProphetX-102 | +4.1%-2.9% |
| 35WATCH | Jordan LoveGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 21.5 Completions | 22.555% | 51% -105 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | DraftKings-116 | +4.1%-4.6% |
| 31WATCH |  George PickensDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 68.5 Rec Yds | 76.556% | 50% -100 2 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Caesars-115 | +5.6%-6.3% |
| 28WATCH |  Dak PrescottDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 36.5 Pass Attempts | 36.851% | 47% +111 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | ProphetX+103 | +3.8%-3.8% |
| 25WATCH |  CeeDee LambDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 80.5 Rec Yds | 85.153% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig-111 | +2.9%-5.0% |
| 25WATCH |  MarShawn LloydGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 11.5 Rec Yds | 12.153% | 50% +102 6 bk | L5 20% · L10 20% | Novig-104 | +2.9%-2.7% |
| 22WATCH | Tucker KraftGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 50.5 Rec Yds | 53.153% | 50% +101 4 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | DraftKings-110 | +2.9%-5.0% |
| 20WATCH | Christian WatsonGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 74.5 Rec Yds | 78.052% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | DraftKings-111 | +2.5%-5.0% |
| 20WATCH | Dak PrescottDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 23.5 Completions | 24.053% | 50% -101 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | DraftKings-114 | +2.3%-5.5% |
| 17WATCH | Dak PrescottDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 275.5 Pass Yds | 27052% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 20% · L10 30% | DraftKings-112 | +2.4%-5.4% |
| 14WATCH | CeeDee LambDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 6.5 Receptions | 6.748% | 47% +114 8 bk | L5 60% · L10 30% | Hard Rock+110 | +1.5%-1.7% |
| 12WATCH | Jordan LoveGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 274.5 Pass Yds | 27851% | 50% +101 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | ProphetX-103 | +1.6%-1.9% |
| 12WATCH | George PickensDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 5.5 Receptions | 5.343% | 41% +143 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | Novig+135 | +1.5%-3.3% |
| 11WATCH | Dak PrescottDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 0.5 Interceptions | 0.6353% | 52% -108 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ProphetX-110 | +1.4%-0.7% |
| 10WATCH | Jake FergusonDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 25.5 Rec Yds | 24.852% | 50% -101 4 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | BetMGM-115 | +1.3%-6.1% |
| 10WATCH | Dak PrescottDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 10.5 Rush Yds | 10.152% | 51% -105 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | BetMGM-111 | +1.1%-2.7% |
| 5WATCH | Ryan FlournoyDAL | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.162% | 59% -145 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig-144 | +3.3%+0.3%MODEL + MARKET |
| 5WATCH | Jordan LoveGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 1.5 Pass TDs | 2.1262% | 62% -162 8 bk | L5 100% · L10 80% | DraftKings-172 | +0.5%-2.3% |
| 1WATCH | MarShawn LloydGB | DAL@GBSUN 7:20 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.0960% | 60% -149 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-156 | +0.2%-1.8% |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
No prices beating the market
No NFL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.
Open the +EV terminalHow the Beezy Score works
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
- Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
- Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
- Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.