NFL picks
LIVELines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57LEAN |  Bryce Young CAR | CAR@ PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Pass TDs | 1.6850% | 40% +148 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | ProphetX+144 | +9.5%-1.6% |
| 54LEAN | Bryce YoungCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 10.5 Rush Yds | 9.060% | 51% -102 10 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | Parx-110 | +9.4%-3.6% |
| 48LEAN |  Jalen CokerCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 4.652% | 45% +122 9 bk | L5 20% · L10 60% | bet365+120 | +7.2%-1.0% |
| 47LEAN |  Darren WallerCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 29.5 Rec Yds | 30.952% | 50% -100 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig+106 | +2.3%+3.0%MODEL + MARKET |
| 47LEAN |  Makai LemonPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 16.5 Rec Yds | 21.862% | 50% +101 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Parx-109 | +12.4%-4.7% |
| 45LEAN |  Brycen TremayneCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.1469% | 56% -127 1 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | bet365-145 | +12.6%-5.4% |
| 44WATCH | Bryce YoungCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 234.5 Pass Yds | 26362% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 100% · L10 60% | Pinnacle-112 | +12.2%-5.4% |
| 43WATCH |  Dontayvion WicksPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.056% | 50% -100 8 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | ProphetX-103 | +6.0%-1.5% |
| 42WATCH |  Tommy TrembleCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 13.5 Rec Yds | 17.161% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | bet365-115 | +10.8%-6.5% |
| 42WATCH | Bryce YoungCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Interceptions | 0.5458% | 51% -102 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | ProphetX-103 | +7.9%-0.4% |
| 40WATCH |  Chuba HubbardCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 16.5 Rec Yds | 14.657% | 49% +104 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Parx-109 | +7.9%-6.1% |
| 40WATCH | Bryce YoungCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 34.5 Pass Attempts | 36.256% | 48% +108 5 bk | L5 100% · L10 60% | ProphetX+103 | +7.8%-2.6% |
| 38WATCH | Tommy TrembleCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.3065% | 56% -127 1 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | bet365-145 | +8.8%-5.4% |
| 38WATCH | Bryce YoungCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 20.5 Completions | 22.561% | 52% -110 4 bk | L5 100% · L10 70% | ProphetX-117 | +8.1%-2.7% |
| 38WATCH | Darren WallerCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 2.8148% | 43% +132 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Hard Rock+125 | +5.2%-3.0% |
| 35WATCH | Dontayvion WicksPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 30.5 Rec Yds | 33.955% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | ProphetX-113 | +5.0%-5.8% |
| 32WATCH | Brycen TremayneCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 13.5 Rec Yds | 15.356% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 40% · L10 30% | bet365-115 | +6.1%-6.5% |
| 31WATCH |  DeVonta SmithPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 4.5 Receptions | 5.561% | 55% -124 1 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Parx-143 | +5.3%-6.1% |
| 28WATCH |  Tetairoa McMillanCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 64.5 Rec Yds | 68.553% | 50% +102 5 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | Novig-104 | +3.5%-2.8% |
| 16WATCH | Jalen CokerCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 55.5 Rec Yds | 53.252% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig+102 | +2.3%+1.0%MODEL + MARKET |
| 11WATCH | Tetairoa McMillanCAR | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 5.5 Receptions | 5.444% | 42% +135 8 bk | L5 20% · L10 20% | Pinnacle+135 | +1.2%-0.2% |
| 7WATCH |  Dallas GoedertPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 34.5 Rec Yds | 35.051% | 50% -100 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Hard Rock-110 | +0.7%-4.5% |
| 4WATCH | DeVonta SmithPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 58.5 Rec Yds | 58.250% | 50% +101 2 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | Parx-113 | +0.5%-6.2% |
| 3WATCH | Dallas GoedertPHI | CAR@PHISUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.848% | 48% +108 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig+111 | +0.1%+1.5%MODEL + MARKET |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
No prices beating the market
No NFL prop price is beating the other books at the moment. Rows appear around game windows, before the game starts.
Open the +EV terminalHow the Beezy Score works
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
- Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
- Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
- Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.