NFL picks
LIVELines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60LEAN |  Harold Fannin Jr. CLE |  BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 3.571% | 59% -143 10 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Pinnacle-154 | +12.1%-3.0% |
| 59LEAN |  Rashod BatemanBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.5470% | 58% -138 10 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | Novig-144 | +11.7%-1.6% |
| 59LEAN |  Derrick HenryBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.1668% | 58% -135 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | DraftKings-145 | +10.4%-2.8% |
| 54LEAN |  Zay FlowersBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 58.5 Rec Yds | 78.063% | 50% -102 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | ProphetX-111 | +12.3%-4.2% |
| 53LEAN |  Justice HillBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 9.5 Rec Yds | 11.760% | 50% -100 9 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Parx-109 | +9.7%-4.1% |
| 52LEAN |  Denzel BostonCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.163% | 50% -100 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Parx+107 | +13.4%+3.5%MODEL + MARKET |
| 51LEAN | Rashod BatemanBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 20.5 Rec Yds | 28.865% | 50% -100 4 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | Fanatics-110 | +14.5%-4.5% |
| 47LEAN | Derrick HenryBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 89.5 Rush Yds | 97.155% | 50% -100 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | ProphetX-108 | +4.7%-3.7% |
| 45LEAN |  Deshaun WatsonCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 6.5 Carries | 7.359% | 49% +103 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Caesars-110 | +10.2%-6.2% |
| 43WATCH | Zay FlowersBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 5.5 Receptions | 5.749% | 47% +115 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | bet365+120 | +2.0%+2.5%MODEL + MARKET |
| 43WATCH | Derrick HenryBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 20.5 Carries | 22.658% | 51% -104 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | ProphetX-105 | +7.2%-0.4% |
| 39WATCH | Deshaun WatsonCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 19.5 Completions | 18.358% | 52% -106 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | DraftKings-115 | +6.4%-3.7% |
| 37WATCH | Denzel BostonCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 50.5 Rec Yds | 60.758% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | DraftKings-114 | +8.4%-6.1% |
| 37WATCH | Deshaun WatsonCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 31.5 Pass Attempts | 29.757% | 51% -104 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | DraftKings-115 | +6.5%-4.6% |
| 37WATCH | Deshaun WatsonCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 28.5 Rush Yds | 31.856% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-104 | +6.3%-1.9% |
| 35WATCH |  Mark AndrewsBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 29.5 Rec Yds | 26.556% | 51% -103 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | ProphetX+102 | +5.0%+2.7%MODEL + MARKET |
| 34WATCH | Deshaun WatsonCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 204.5 Pass Yds | 19357% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Caesars-115 | +6.8%-6.5% |
| 31WATCH |  Tyler HuntleyBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 4.5 Carries | 5.262% | 57% -130 2 bk | L5 40% · L10 43% | DraftKings-141 | +5.5%-3.4% |
| 14WATCH | Deshaun WatsonCLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Pass TDs | 1.2764% | 63% -167 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-182 | +1.3%-3.2% |
| 12WATCH | Mark AndrewsBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.653% | 50% -100 12 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | Pinnacle+101 | +3.4%+0.5%MODEL + MARKET |
| 9WATCH | Harold Fannin Jr.CLE | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 35.5 Rec Yds | 36.451% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | DraftKings-111 | +1.3%-5.0% |
| 8WATCH | Justice HillBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.4957% | 46% +116 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig+117 | +10.7%+0.4%MODEL + MARKET |
| 6WATCH | Tyler HuntleyBAL | BAL@CLESUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 24.5 Rush Yds | 24.351% | 50% +100 8 bk | L5 80% · L10 57% | Parx-110 | +0.6%-4.7% |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
Market prices
PREVIEW. NFL sportsbook and exchange prices beating the consensus of the other books on the same player, stat and line. Not yet tracked in the public results. Updating live. Kalshi asks are on the +EV terminal.
| Player / prop | Game | Side | Book | Price | Fair | Books | EV | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman 1.5 Receptions | BAL@CLE | UNDER | bet365 | +150 | 41.9% | 6 | +4.8% | FLAGGED |
| Zay Flowers 5.5 ReceptionsMODEL + MARKET | BAL@CLE | OVER | bet365 | +120 | 46.9% | 6 | +3.1% | FLAGGED |
How the Beezy Score works
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
- Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
- Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
- Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.