NFL projections
LIVELines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -- |  Kyle Monangai CHI |  NE@CHITHU 7:15 PM CT | Carries (no line yet) | 12.2 | L10 avg 11.5 · szn 15.0 | -- | -- |
| -- | Kyle MonangaiCHI | NE@CHITHU 7:15 PM CT | Rush Yds (no line yet) | 56.1 | L10 avg 52.2 · szn 81.0 | -- | -- |
| -- |  Romeo DoubsNE | NE@CHITHU 7:15 PM CT | Rec Yds (no line yet) | 47.8 | L10 avg 52.5 · szn 43.8 | -- | -- |
| -- | Romeo DoubsNE | NE@CHITHU 7:15 PM CT | Receptions (no line yet) | 2.93 | L10 avg 3.1 · szn 2.60 | -- | -- |
| -- |  TreVeyon HendersonNE | NE@CHITHU 7:15 PM CT | Carries (no line yet) | 9.6 | L10 avg 10.4 · szn 10.5 | -- | -- |
| -- | TreVeyon HendersonNE | NE@CHITHU 7:15 PM CT | Rush Yds (no line yet) | 37.2 | L10 avg 37.4 · szn 40.8 | -- | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
How the Beezy Score works
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
- Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
- Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
- Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.