NFL projections
LIVELines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64LEAN |  Nico Collins HOU | HOU@ JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 5.5 Receptions | 5.259% | 46% +116 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | bet365+115 | +13.0%-0.3% |
| 61LEAN |  Dalton SchultzHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 4.359% | 47% +113 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | ProphetX+108 | +12.5%-2.5% |
| 60LEAN |  Kayshon BoutteHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 24.5 Rec Yds | 33.363% | 49% +104 8 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig+104 | +14.4%-0.1% |
| 59LEAN |  C.J. StroudHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 1.5 Pass TDs | 1.1668% | 57% -134 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig-144 | +10.6%-3.0% |
| 56LEAN |  Brian Thomas Jr.JAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.1060% | 52% -108 12 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | Pinnacle-120 | +8.2%-4.6% |
| 55LEAN |  Parker WashingtonJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 4.5 Receptions | 4.456% | 49% +106 12 bk | L5 40% · L10 30% | Novig+104 | +7.6%-0.8% |
| 54LEAN |  Trevor LawrenceJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 12.5 Rush Yds | 16.263% | 51% -104 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Parx-117 | +12.3%-5.4% |
| 48LEAN | Chris RodriguezJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Receptions | 0.3372% | 58% -138 1 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | bet365-160 | +14.0%-5.7% |
| 44WATCH |  Jakobi MeyersJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 32.5 Rec Yds | 41.962% | 51% -102 4 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | DraftKings-111 | +11.1%-4.0% |
| 44WATCH | Trevor LawrenceJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 228.5 Pass Yds | 25361% | 50% +100 4 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig-104 | +10.8%-2.1% |
| 43WATCH | C.J. StroudHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Interceptions | 0.4763% | 53% -115 5 bk | L5 100% · L10 70% | ProphetX-120 | +9.4%-2.0% |
| 43WATCH |  Brenton StrangeJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 4.359% | 55% -124 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | DraftKings-129 | +3.7%-1.6% |
| 41WATCH |  Nate BoerkircherJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 0.5 Receptions | 1.0965% | 61% -157 9 bk | L5 75% · L10 75% | ProphetX-164 | +4.0%-1.8% |
| 40WATCH | C.J. StroudHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 3.5 Carries | 2.9267% | 58% -138 4 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | DraftKings-147 | +8.9%-2.6% |
| 40WATCH | Trevor LawrenceJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 3.5 Carries | 3.756% | 49% +104 6 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | Caesars-109 | +6.8%-6.1% |
| 40WATCH | Trevor LawrenceJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 19.5 Completions | 20.355% | 49% +104 7 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | DraftKings-109 | +5.7%-5.9% |
| 38WATCH | Brenton StrangeJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 37.5 Rec Yds | 43.157% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Caesars-112 | +6.8%-5.4% |
| 36WATCH | C.J. StroudHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 256.5 Pass Yds | 27056% | 49% +105 4 bk | L5 80% · L10 40% | Novig+102 | +6.9%-1.5% |
| 33WATCH |  Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.0058% | 55% -122 11 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | ProphetX-125 | +2.9%-1.0% |
| 32WATCH |  Jaylin NoelHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.2664% | 58% -138 1 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | bet365-160 | +6.0%-5.7% |
| 32WATCH | Trevor LawrenceJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Interceptions | 0.6751% | 47% +112 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Caesars+101 | +4.0%-5.3% |
| 27WATCH | Parker WashingtonJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 62.5 Rec Yds | 67.053% | 50% -101 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | DraftKings-113 | +3.3%-5.4% |
| 25WATCH | Trevor LawrenceJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 32.5 Pass Attempts | 31.156% | 52% -109 4 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | DraftKings-122 | +3.4%-4.9% |
| 22WATCH | Jakobi MeyersJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.443% | 41% +144 10 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | ProphetX+136 | +2.2%-3.3% |
| 19WATCH | C.J. StroudHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 9.5 Rush Yds | 9.451% | 49% +104 9 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | Novig+104 | +1.8%-0.1% |
| 18WATCH |  Bhayshul TutenJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 9.5 Rec Yds | 9.053% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | ProphetX+102 | +3.1%+1.0%MODEL + MARKET |
| 17WATCH | Kayshon BoutteHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 2.3441% | 39% +157 8 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | BetMGM+150 | +2.0%-2.7% |
| 11WATCH | C.J. StroudHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 35.5 Pass Attempts | 35.450% | 49% +104 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Hard Rock-105 | +1.4%-4.3% |
| 9WATCH | Nico CollinsHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 73.5 Rec Yds | 71.851% | 50% -100 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | bet365-115 | +1.2%-6.5% |
| 4WATCH |  Josh CameronJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.7150% | 50% +101 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig+104 | +0.1%+1.4%MODEL + MARKET |
| 3WATCH | C.J. StroudHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 22.5 Completions | 22.650% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | BetMGM-110 | +0.3%-4.5% |
| -- | Chris RodriguezJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 0.5 Rec Yds | 2.5285% | 37% +170 1 bk | L5 20% · L10 40% | bet365+155 | +48.4%-5.6% |
| -- |  Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 5.5 Carries | 7.270% | 38% +165 1 bk | L5 80% · L10 90% | Fanatics+140 | +32.4%-9.4% |
| -- |  Xavier HutchinsonHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 14.5 Rec Yds | 36.378% | 50% -100 9 bk | L5 100% · L10 90% | ESPN BET-110 | +28.1%-4.5% |
| -- | Bhayshul TutenJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 16.5 Carries | 12.278% | 51% -104 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | BetMGM-110 | +27.1%-2.7% |
| -- |  Woody MarksHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 14.5 Carries | 10.778% | 52% -108 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | Caesars-118 | +26.1%-3.9% |
| -- | Xavier HutchinsonHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.9877% | 52% -106 13 bk | L5 100% · L10 90% | ProphetX-109 | +25.7%-1.1% |
| -- | Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 15.5 Rush Yds | 28.275% | 50% +101 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | Parx-108 | +25.4%-4.2% |
| -- | Nate BoerkircherJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 5.5 Rec Yds | 11.175% | 50% +101 6 bk | L5 75% · L10 75% | ESPN BET+100 | +24.9%-0.5% |
| -- | Brian Thomas Jr.JAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 17.5 Rec Yds | 32.673% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | DraftKings-112 | +22.9%-5.4% |
| -- | Woody MarksHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 14.5 Rec Yds | 10.171% | 50% -100 10 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig-102 | +21.1%-1.0% |
| -- | Bhayshul TutenJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.3163% | 42% +135 11 bk | L5 20% · L10 60% | Pinnacle+140 | +20.4%+2.0% |
| -- | Bhayshul TutenJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 63.5 Rush Yds | 47.070% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 0% · L10 50% | Pinnacle-104 | +20.2%-1.9% |
| -- | Woody MarksHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 1.9968% | 48% +109 12 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | Parx+110 | +20.2%+0.5% |
| -- | Trevor LawrenceJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 1.5 Pass TDs | 2.0460% | 40% +147 12 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | BetRivers+143 | +19.8%-1.7% |
| -- | Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 21.5 Rec Yds | 34.969% | 50% -100 9 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Parx-113 | +19.0%-5.8% |
| -- | Josh CameronJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 15.5 Rec Yds | 24.168% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig+100 | +18.1%0.0% |
| -- | Jaylin NoelHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 17.5 Rec Yds | 26.867% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | bet365-115 | +17.3%-6.5% |
| -- | Woody MarksHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 46.5 Rush Yds | 36.366% | 50% +102 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | DraftKings-110 | +16.8%-5.4% |
| -- | Dalton SchultzHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Over 30.5 Rec Yds | 42.965% | 50% +102 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig+106 | +15.1%+2.0% |
| -- |  Ameer AbdullahJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0298% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- | Bhayshul TutenJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3968% | -- | L5 60% · L10 50% | -- | -- |
| -- | Brenton StrangeJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2281% | -- | L5 80% · L10 70% | -- | -- |
| -- | Brian Thomas Jr.JAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2677% | -- | L5 80% · L10 70% | -- | -- |
| -- | C.J. StroudHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1487% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Cade StoverHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- | Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.4862% | -- | L5 60% · L10 50% | -- | -- |
| -- | Dalton SchultzHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0991% | -- | L5 100% · L10 90% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Foster MoreauHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0991% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- |
| -- | Jakobi MeyersJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2677% | -- | L5 60% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- | Jaylin NoelHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1487% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- | Josh CameronJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3471% | -- | L5 60% · L10 60% | -- | -- |
| -- | Kayshon BoutteHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1586% | -- | L5 100% · L10 90% | -- | -- |
| -- |  LeQuint Allen Jr.JAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- | Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2677% | -- | L5 80% · L10 70% | -- | -- |
| -- | Nate BoerkircherJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- | Nico CollinsHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.5061% | -- | L5 60% · L10 60% | -- | -- |
| -- | Parker WashingtonJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.6055% | -- | L5 40% · L10 40% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Quintin MorrisJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0892% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Travis HunterJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0892% | -- | L5 100% · L10 90% | -- | -- |
| -- | Trevor LawrenceJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3173% | -- | L5 100% · L10 70% | -- | -- |
| -- | Woody MarksHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3173% | -- | L5 60% · L10 70% | -- | -- |
| -- | Xavier HutchinsonHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0595% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Dare OgunbowaleHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0893% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- |
| -- |  David MontgomeryHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Carries (no line yet) | 8.4 | -- | L10 avg 8.7 · szn 10.4 | -- | -- |
| -- | David MontgomeryHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Rush Yds (no line yet) | 24.2 | -- | L10 avg 31.1 · szn 27.6 | -- | -- |
| -- |  Davis MillsHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Pass Attempts (no line yet) | 26.7 | -- | L10 avg 26.5 · szn 26.5 | -- | -- |
| -- | Davis MillsHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Completions (no line yet) | 15.1 | -- | L10 avg 15.2 · szn 15.2 | -- | -- |
| -- | Davis MillsHOU | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Pass Yds (no line yet) | 156 | -- | L10 avg 153 · szn 153 | -- | -- |
| -- |  Quinn EwersJAC | HOU@JACSUN 8:30 AM CT | Pass Attempts (no line yet) | 21.9 | -- | L10 avg 20.8 · szn 20.8 | -- | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
How the Beezy Score works
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
- Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
- Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
- Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.