NFL projections
LIVELines updated 14 min ago
| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65LEAN |  Caleb Williams CHI | CHI@ ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Pass TDs | 1.4857% | 43% +134 11 bk | L5 20% · L10 20% | BetRivers+128 | +13.7%-2.5% |
| 63LEAN |  Kalif RaymondCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.566% | 53% -115 11 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | bet365-120 | +12.5%-2.0% |
| 60LEAN |  Bijan RobinsonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.457% | 50% +101 12 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig+111 | +7.1%+5.1%MODEL + MARKET |
| 55LEAN | Bijan RobinsonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 28.5 Rec Yds | 36.962% | 50% -100 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | ProphetX-112 | +12.1%-5.2% |
| 55LEAN | Brian Robinson Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 34.5 Rush Yds | 30.259% | 50% -100 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | DraftKings-109 | +8.5%-4.1% |
| 53LEAN |  Colston LovelandCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.954% | 47% +113 13 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig+113 | +6.6%-0.0% |
| 51LEAN |  D'Andre SwiftCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 15.5 Rec Yds | 19.461% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | ProphetX-112 | +10.8%-5.4% |
| 49LEAN | Colston LovelandCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 36.5 Rec Yds | 45.160% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 20% · L10 50% | ProphetX-112 | +10.3%-5.4% |
| 47LEAN | Caleb WilliamsCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 32.5 Pass Attempts | 35.159% | 47% +113 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ProphetX+108 | +12.2%-2.2% |
| 46LEAN |  Zachariah BranchATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 10.5 Rec Yds | 9.555% | 50% -100 10 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-104 | +5.4%-1.9% |
| 45LEAN | Kalif RaymondCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 26.5 Rec Yds | 31.859% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | BetMGM+100 | +9.1%0.0% |
| 45LEAN |  Cole KmetCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.4642% | 36% +176 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | bet365+170 | +6.0%-2.2% |
| 44WATCH |  Rome OdunzeCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 41.5 Rec Yds | 51.861% | 51% -104 5 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | ProphetX-112 | +9.8%-3.4% |
| 44WATCH | Brian Robinson Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 8.5 Carries | 7.661% | 52% -108 6 bk | L5 20% · L10 60% | Hard Rock-115 | +8.7%-2.9% |
| 42WATCH |  Roschon JohnsonCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 0.5 Receptions | 1.3071% | 61% -154 1 bk | L5 40% · L10 22% | bet365-180 | +10.8%-5.6% |
| 41WATCH | Bijan RobinsonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 90.5 Rush Yds | 10759% | 50% -102 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | ProphetX-112 | +8.5%-4.5% |
| 40WATCH | D'Andre SwiftCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 15.5 Carries | 14.457% | 50% +100 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | DraftKings-112 | +6.8%-5.5% |
| 40WATCH | Rome OdunzeCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.646% | 40% +151 7 bk | L5 20% · L10 10% | ESPN BET+145 | +6.6%-2.4% |
| 40WATCH | D'Andre SwiftCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 66.5 Rush Yds | 59.757% | 51% -104 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | DraftKings-110 | +5.8%-2.6% |
| 38WATCH | Caleb WilliamsCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 19.5 Completions | 20.254% | 50% +101 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | BetMGM-105 | +4.3%-2.8% |
| 38WATCH |  Jahan DotsonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 23.5 Rec Yds | 22.154% | 50% -100 10 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ProphetX-105 | +3.5%-2.4% |
| 35WATCH | Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.362% | 57% -132 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Novig-127 | +4.8%+1.8%MODEL + MARKET |
| 32WATCH | Caleb WilliamsCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 225.5 Pass Yds | 23956% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | FanDuel-114 | +6.2%-6.1% |
| 31WATCH | Luther BurdenCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 3.5 Rush Yds | 3.255% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | bet365-115 | +5.4%-6.5% |
| 30WATCH | Caleb WilliamsCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 4.5 Carries | 5.059% | 55% -124 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | ProphetX-130 | +4.0%-2.1% |
| 21WATCH |  Drake LondonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 89.5 Rec Yds | 85.852% | 50% +100 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig-104 | +2.4%-2.1% |
| 13WATCH | D'Andre SwiftCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 2.5 Receptions | 2.5754% | 53% -111 12 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | Novig-113 | +1.1%-0.9% |
| 11WATCH |  Luther Burden IIICHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 4.5 Receptions | 4.444% | 43% +134 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Caesars+126 | +1.1%-3.3% |
| 10WATCH |  Michael Penix Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 236.5 Pass Yds | 23351% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Pinnacle-111 | +1.5%-5.0% |
| 9WATCH | Michael Penix Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 30.5 Pass Attempts | 27.365% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | ProphetX+101 | +14.5%+0.5%MODEL + MARKET |
| 6WATCH | Luther Burden IIICHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 49.5 Rec Yds | 50.251% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Pinnacle-112 | +0.7%-5.4% |
| 3WATCH | Bijan RobinsonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 18.5 Carries | 18.649% | 49% +104 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Caesars-109 | +0.4%-6.0% |
| -- | Roschon JohnsonCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 20.5 Rush Yds | 5.0100% | 50% +101 6 bk | L5 100% · L10 100% | Novig+100 | +50.3%-0.6% |
| -- | Roschon JohnsonCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Rec Yds | 6.580% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 40% · L10 22% | bet365-115 | +29.9%-6.5% |
| -- | Michael Penix Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Interceptions | 0.2578% | 51% -105 5 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | ProphetX-117 | +26.3%-4.8% |
| -- | Michael Penix Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 2.5 Rush Yds | 4.776% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | ProphetX-107 | +25.8%-3.3% |
| -- | Michael Penix Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Pass TDs | 1.0273% | 48% +106 12 bk | L5 100% · L10 80% | BetRivers-104 | +24.3%-5.0% |
| -- | Caleb WilliamsCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 18.5 Rush Yds | 30.772% | 50% +100 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | Caesars-108 | +22.6%-3.9% |
| -- | Cole KmetCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 9.5 Rec Yds | 16.071% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | ESPN BET-105 | +21.2%-2.4% |
| -- | Jahan DotsonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.3262% | 42% +137 9 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | bet365+150 | +20.3%+5.3% |
| -- | Drake LondonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 6.5 Receptions | 5.174% | 56% -126 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | bet365-135 | +17.8%-2.9% |
| -- | Michael Penix Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 20.5 Completions | 17.371% | 54% -115 6 bk | L5 100% · L10 80% | DraftKings-127 | +17.6%-4.4% |
| -- | Caleb WilliamsCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 0.5 Interceptions | 0.9360% | 43% +134 5 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | ProphetX+127 | +17.6%-2.9% |
| -- | Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 28.5 Rec Yds | 42.667% | 50% +100 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Pinnacle-111 | +17.4%-5.1% |
| -- | Zachariah BranchATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.3960% | 60% -150 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | BetMGM-165 | +0.0%-3.8% |
| -- |  Austin HooperATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1784% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- | Bijan RobinsonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Over 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.7854% | -- | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-228 | -- |
| -- | Brian Robinson Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3868% | -- | L5 60% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- | Caleb WilliamsCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2875% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Charlie WoernerATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Chris BlairATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- | Cole KmetCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1883% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- | Colston LovelandCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2082% | -- | L5 100% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- | D'Andre SwiftCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.6552% | -- | L5 60% · L10 60% | -- | -- |
| -- | Drake LondonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3074% | -- | L5 100% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- | Jahan DotsonATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1189% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- |
| -- | Kalif RaymondCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1388% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- | Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3173% | -- | L5 80% · L10 70% | -- | -- |
| -- | Luther Burden IIICHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1487% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- | Michael Penix Jr.ATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0496% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Olamide ZaccheausATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1487% | -- | L5 100% · L10 80% | -- | -- |
| -- | Rome OdunzeCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1586% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- | Roschon JohnsonCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- | Zachariah BranchATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Zavion ThomasCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Jahdae WalkerCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3968% | -- | L5 40% · L10 63% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Sam RoushCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Zavier ScottCHI | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0595% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
| -- |  Cooper RushATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Pass Attempts (no line yet) | 16.3 | -- | L10 avg 15.2 · szn 19.5 | -- | -- |
| -- | Cooper RushATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Completions (no line yet) | 9.9 | -- | L10 avg 9.3 · szn 11.0 | -- | -- |
| -- | Cooper RushATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Pass Yds (no line yet) | 97.6 | -- | L10 avg 88.7 · szn 115 | -- | -- |
| -- |  Tua TagovailoaATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Pass Attempts (no line yet) | 21.4 | -- | L10 avg 23.7 · szn 3.0 | -- | -- |
| -- | Tua TagovailoaATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Completions (no line yet) | 14.5 | -- | L10 avg 15.6 · szn 2.00 | -- | -- |
| -- | Tua TagovailoaATL | CHI@ATLSUN 12:00 PM CT | Pass Yds (no line yet) | 167 | -- | L10 avg 169 · szn 34.0 | -- | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
How the Beezy Score works
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
- Edge, up to 60: 4 points per 1% of edge at the flagged price.
- Consensus, up to 20: how many other books back the fair price (3 books is 0, 12 or more is the max). Model bets have no books count and get a neutral 10.
- Hit probability, up to 20: longshots are penalised (15% to win is 0, 50% or better is the max).
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.