| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58LEAN | Under 49.5 Rec Yds | 42.459% | 50% -100 12 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | DraftKings-111 | +9.2%-5.0% | ||
| 58LEAN | Over 25.5 Rec Yds | 31.260% | 51% -104 12 bk | L5 80% · L10 50% | FanDuel-114 | +8.8%-4.2% | ||
| 53LEAN | Under 1.5 Pass TDs | 1.3960% | 47% +114 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig+122 | +12.8%+3.8%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 53LEAN | Under 22.5 Completions | 20.661% | 48% +108 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | BetMGM+100 | +13.0%-4.1% | ||
| 53LEAN | Under 30.5 Pass Attempts | 27.862% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | DraftKings-106 | +12.0%-2.8% | ||
| 51LEAN | Under 20.5 Completions | 18.761% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | BetMGM-110 | +11.2%-4.5% | ||
| 50LEAN | Under 0.5 Interceptions | 0.5657% | 42% +135 3 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Caesars+122 | +14.8%-5.7% | ||
| 50LEAN | Over 7.5 Carries | 8.358% | 45% +124 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | DraftKings+113 | +13.8%-5.1% | ||
| 48LEAN | Under 3.5 Receptions | 3.653% | 49% +104 13 bk | L5 20% · L10 40% | bet365+100 | +4.1%-2.0% | ||
| 47LEAN | Over 39.5 Rec Yds | 52.463% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | bet365-115 | +13.4%-6.5% | ||
| 44WATCH | Under 80.5 Rec Yds | 68.460% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | Novig-108 | +9.6%-3.7% | ||
| 42WATCH | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.648% | 40% +148 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 30% | Novig+144 | +7.4%-1.6% | ||
| 40WATCH | Over 27.5 Rec Yds | 30.455% | 51% -104 8 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Novig-108 | +4.3%-1.9% | ||
| 39WATCH | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.3566% | 61% -157 7 bk | L5 100% · L10 90% | BetMGM-175 | +4.9%-4.0% | ||
| 38WATCH | Under 249.5 Pass Yds | 23358% | 50% -100 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ProphetX-107 | +8.1%-3.3% | ||
| 38WATCH | Over 38.5 Rec Yds | 43.156% | 50% -101 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | ProphetX-112 | +5.6%-5.0% | ||
| 36WATCH | Over 3.5 Receptions | 4.359% | 51% -104 1 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | bet365-120 | +7.8%-6.5% | ||
| 30WATCH | James Cook III | Over 93.5 Rush Yds | 99.354% | 50% +101 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | DraftKings-111 | +3.7%-5.4% | |
| 25WATCH | Over 14.5 Carries | 16.962% | 51% -103 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | ESPN BET+100 | +11.5%+1.4%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 21WATCH | Under 6.5 Receptions | 6.455% | 47% +113 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig+115 | +8.2%+0.9%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 21WATCH | James Cook III | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.3163% | 55% -123 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | bet365-120 | +7.6%+0.9%MODEL + MARKET | |
| 18WATCH | Under 49.5 Rec Yds | 48.751% | 50% -100 9 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig+102 | +0.9%+1.0%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 16WATCH | Under 23.5 Rec Yds | 22.353% | 51% -102 3 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | DraftKings-110 | +2.2%-3.4% | ||
| 12WATCH | Over 3.5 Receptions | 3.851% | 50% +102 12 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | BetMGM-105 | +1.0%-3.2% | ||
| 11WATCH | Over 238.5 Pass Yds | 24252% | 50% -100 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | DraftKings-113 | +1.4%-5.5% | ||
| 8WATCH | James Cook III | Over 18.5 Carries | 18.550% | 49% +104 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | ProphetX-102 | +0.9%-3.0% | |
| 7WATCH | Under 1.5 Pass TDs | 1.9443% | 42% +139 10 bk | L5 20% · L10 40% | ProphetX+130 | +0.7%-3.6% | ||
| 6WATCH | Over 0.5 Interceptions | 0.8256% | 47% +112 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | ProphetX+113 | +8.7%+0.3%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 5WATCH | Under 55.5 Rush Yds | 54.351% | 51% -103 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | FanDuel-114 | +0.6%-4.8% | ||
| -- | Under 1.5 Rush Yds | 0.06100% | 50% -101 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 90% | DraftKings-112 | +49.9%-5.1% | ||
| -- | Under 4.5 Receptions | 2.7185% | 55% -122 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Parx-122 | +29.8%-0.1% | ||
| -- | Over 6.5 Rush Yds | 11.374% | 50% -100 8 bk | L5 0% · L10 20% | Novig-102 | +23.8%-1.0% | ||
| -- | Over 15.5 Rec Yds | 26.572% | 50% -100 10 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | Novig+106 | +21.8%+3.0% | ||
| -- | Under 2.5 Receptions | 1.5579% | 59% -141 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | DraftKings-154 | +20.5%-3.4% | ||
| -- | Under 3.5 Receptions | 2.8867% | 47% +113 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Novig+120 | +20.2%+3.3% | ||
| -- | Over 14.5 Rush Yds | 21.769% | 50% -100 8 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | ProphetX-111 | +19.2%-5.0% | ||
| -- | James Cook III | Over 7.5 Rec Yds | 11.669% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Pinnacle-112 | +18.9%-5.2% | |
| -- | Over 33.5 Rush Yds | 49.469% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Pinnacle-111 | +18.6%-5.0% | ||
| -- | Under 36.5 Pass Attempts | 32.466% | 50% +101 6 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | DraftKings-102 | +15.7%-1.3% | ||
| -- | Over 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.7754% | -- | L5 80% · L10 60% | BetMGM+100 | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3372% | -- | L5 60% · L10 80% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1586% | -- | L5 100% · L10 80% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.5061% | -- | L5 60% · L10 50% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.4067% | -- | L5 80% · L10 70% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2578% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1288% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1784% | -- | L5 100% · L10 80% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | James Cook III | Over 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.9160% | -- | L5 80% · L10 50% | Novig-144 | -- | |
| -- | Over 0.5 Anytime TD | 1.2972% | -- | L5 100% · L10 70% | Novig-138 | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.4762% | -- | L5 60% · L10 60% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1090% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0694% | -- | L5 100% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1289% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2082% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0992% | -- | L5 100% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1784% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3372% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.4365% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1090% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2578% | -- | L5 100% · L10 70% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1883% | -- | L5 100% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.