| SCORE | PLAYER | GAME | MARKET & LINE | MODEL | MARKET FAIR | FORM | BEST PRICE | EDGE / EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64LEAN | Under 2.5 Pass TDs | 2.0167% | 54% -117 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | bet365-125 | +13.3%-2.9% | ||
| 53LEAN | Over 0.5 Interceptions | 0.8959% | 44% +125 5 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | ProphetX+121 | +14.4%-2.0% | ||
| 49LEAN | Under 5.5 Receptions | 5.259% | 54% -116 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig-122 | +5.5%-2.2% | ||
| 47LEAN | Over 7.5 Receptions | 8.355% | 53% -112 12 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig-108 | +2.1%+2.0%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 46LEAN | Over 34.5 Rec Yds | 42.060% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | ESPN BET-110 | +9.8%-4.5% | ||
| 46LEAN | Under 1.5 Receptions | 1.2166% | 62% -162 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | bet365-165 | +4.3%-0.7% | ||
| 44WATCH | Over 58.5 Rec Yds | 69.659% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | BetRivers-114 | +8.8%-6.0% | ||
| 44WATCH | Over 92.5 Rec Yds | 11260% | 51% -104 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-111 | +8.7%-3.0% | ||
| 42WATCH | Over 284.5 Pass Yds | 31561% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | ESPN BET-110 | +10.8%-4.5% | ||
| 42WATCH | Over 0.5 Receptions | 1.2169% | 64% -181 9 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | Novig-182 | +4.5%-0.2% | ||
| 41WATCH | Over 23.5 Completions | 24.555% | 49% +104 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | ProphetX-104 | +5.8%-3.9% | ||
| 40WATCH | Under 42.5 Rush Yds | 36.959% | 50% -100 4 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | Caesars-112 | +9.1%-5.4% | ||
| 38WATCH | Over 0.5 Interceptions | 1.0364% | 58% -136 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | ProphetX-140 | +6.6%-1.1% | ||
| 38WATCH | Over 2.5 Receptions | 3.463% | 58% -140 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | ProphetX-142 | +4.4%-0.7% | ||
| 36WATCH | Under 3.5 Receptions | 2.7270% | 57% -132 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | ProphetX-127 | +13.7%+1.6%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 36WATCH | Under 237.5 Pass Yds | 22258% | 50% -100 3 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Novig-106 | +8.0%-2.8% | ||
| 33WATCH | Under 35.5 Rec Yds | 31.557% | 52% -110 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | FanDuel-114 | +4.4%-1.8% | ||
| 32WATCH | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.7350% | 49% +104 12 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | Novig+108 | +1.4%+2.0%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 29WATCH | Over 7.5 Receptions | 7.647% | 44% +125 12 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | Novig+122 | +2.5%-1.3% | ||
| 27WATCH | Over 23.5 Completions | 26.864% | 50% +101 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 50% | ProphetX+104 | +14.7%+1.5%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 27WATCH | Over 14.5 Carries | 14.751% | 48% +108 5 bk | L5 60% · L10 40% | Fanatics+105 | +3.3%-1.7% | ||
| 22WATCH | Over 37.5 Pass Attempts | 38.453% | 51% -102 7 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | ProphetX+100 | +2.2%+1.2%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| 21WATCH | Under 0.5 Receptions | 0.8145% | 42% +138 1 bk | L5 20% · L10 30% | bet365+125 | +3.4%-5.7% | ||
| 17WATCH | Under 69.5 Rush Yds | 67.852% | 50% -100 10 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig+100 | +1.5%0.0% | ||
| 12WATCH | Over 58.5 Rec Yds | 60.251% | 50% -100 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | FanDuel-114 | +1.5%-6.1% | ||
| 11WATCH | Under 64.5 Rec Yds | 62.652% | 50% -101 5 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | Pinnacle-112 | +1.4%-5.0% | ||
| 6WATCH | Under 4.5 Receptions | 4.358% | 57% -133 11 bk | L5 40% · L10 60% | Parx-136 | +0.6%-0.8% | ||
| -- | Over 1.5 Receptions | 2.0258% | 48% +109 11 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | ProphetX+109 | +10.4%+0.0%MODEL + MARKET | ||
| -- | Under 20.5 Rec Yds | 6.2100% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 100% · L10 89% | Novig-108 | +49.9%-3.7% | ||
| -- | Under 1.5 Receptions | 0.5589% | 43% +131 11 bk | L5 80% · L10 78% | bet365+125 | +45.9%-2.5% | ||
| -- | Under 13.5 Carries | 7.098% | 53% -112 4 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | DraftKings-123 | +45.2%-4.2% | ||
| -- | Over 0.5 Rush Yds | 4.391% | 47% +113 3 bk | L5 40% · L10 40% | DraftKings+112 | +43.9%-0.5% | ||
| -- | Under 14.5 Rec Yds | 6.794% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 100% · L10 90% | bet365-115 | +43.6%-6.5% | ||
| -- | Under 46.5 Rush Yds | 23.992% | 50% -100 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | ProphetX-111 | +42.2%-5.0% | ||
| -- | Over 6.5 Rec Yds | 18.882% | 50% -100 1 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | bet365-115 | +32.0%-6.5% | ||
| -- | Over 6.5 Rush Yds | 12.677% | 51% -103 7 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | ProphetX-111 | +26.0%-3.5% | ||
| -- | Over 13.5 Rec Yds | 26.976% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 40% · L10 70% | Caesars-108 | +25.7%-3.7% | ||
| -- | Over 7.5 Rec Yds | 14.174% | 50% -100 6 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | Pinnacle-112 | +24.3%-5.4% | ||
| -- | Over 34.5 Pass Attempts | 42.171% | 49% +105 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 80% | ESPN BET-105 | +22.6%-4.8% | ||
| -- | Over 12.5 Rec Yds | 20.269% | 50% -100 4 bk | L5 80% · L10 60% | FanDuel-114 | +19.1%-6.0% | ||
| -- | Under 2.5 Receptions | 1.6676% | 58% -136 2 bk | L5 80% · L10 90% | bet365-120 | +18.8%+5.7% | ||
| -- | Over 7.5 Rec Yds | 10.465% | 48% +108 8 bk | L5 40% · L10 50% | Novig+106 | +17.1%-0.7% | ||
| -- | Over 2.5 Receptions | 4.073% | 56% -125 8 bk | L5 80% · L10 70% | Novig-133 | +17.0%-2.8% | ||
| -- | Over 19.5 Rec Yds | 28.367% | 50% -102 10 bk | L5 80% · L10 80% | Pinnacle-112 | +16.4%-4.6% | ||
| -- | Over 1.5 Pass TDs | 1.8856% | 40% +150 11 bk | L5 60% · L10 70% | Parx+155 | +16.0%+1.9% | ||
| -- | Under 9.5 Carries | 8.066% | 50% +101 7 bk | L5 60% · L10 60% | BetMGM+100 | +15.9%-0.6% | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2876% | -- | L5 80% · L10 70% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3372% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.4365% | -- | L5 100% · L10 80% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Over 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.9662% | -- | L5 40% · L10 30% | ProphetX-112 | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0892% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1090% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.1586% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Over 0.5 Anytime TD | 1.0966% | -- | L5 80% · L10 70% | ESPN BET-190 | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.3571% | -- | L5 80% · L10 40% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Over 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.9260% | -- | L5 60% · L10 70% | Novig-150 | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0892% | -- | L5 100% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2677% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.2677% | -- | L5 80% · L10 80% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.00100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.0892% | -- | L5 80% · L10 90% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 0.5 Anytime TD | 0.5359% | -- | L5 40% · L10 50% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Under 39.5 Rec Yds | 5.8100% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | -- | -- | ||
| -- | Over 19.5 Rush Yds | 47.181% | -- | L5 100% · L10 100% | Bovada-1600 | -- | ||
| -- | Over 1.5 Receptions | 1.8052% | -- | L5 60% · L10 60% | Novig-170 | -- | ||
| -- | Carries (no line yet) | 13.5 | -- | L10 avg 13.4 · szn 13.4 | -- | -- |
Model is the expected value for the stat and the probability the model gives the listed side. Market fair is the de-vigged consensus probability for that side, its American price and how many books it rests on. Form is the share of recent games that landed on the listed side of the line, or the player’s own average when there is no line. Edge is the model minus the market; the second figure is the best price against the market. Rows with no line are projections only: prices have not posted.
A 0-100 strength score for one flagged price. It is not a win probability. Hover a score to see its parts.
Consensus and hit probability only count when there is an edge, so a price with no edge scores 0. STRONG is 70+, LEAN is 45-69, WATCH is under 45.
On 7,259 graded +EV alerts the tiers realised +25.8% (STRONG), +6.4% (LEAN) and +3.5% (WATCH) flat-stake ROI, paper, each book counted separately. The cut points were set on that same sample, so expect them to shrink going forward, and they are not yet validated for model bets.